[2NL] TT OOP facing river decision

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 38/20/0 (3bet). Villain limped 14% of the time, calling a raise 75% of the time and folding the other 25%.

Folded to 60% cbet, 3/5.

Attempt to steal was 50%, 15/30.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $2.12
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $0.94
CO: $2.00
BTN: $3.84

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has T T

fold, fold, BTN calls $0.02, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.10, BTN calls $0.08, fold

Flop: ($0.22, 2 players) 4 3 4
Hero bets $0.16, BTN calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.54, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $0.44, BTN calls $0.44

River: ($1.42, 2 players) K
Hero ???

I am not worried about the K on the river, more-so what Villain was calling with on F & T.

On flop I put Villain on 33-99, with a 38/20 I think he would raise on the button with TT+ at the very least. Ad2d-Ad3d, Ad5d-Ad9d, A4s, A3s, A4o, A3o.

On turn, once villain calls, I think I have to exclude FD's from villains range now. 33-99, A5s, A4s, A4o.

Leaves me with the river decision. If I have villains range correct, which is the weakest part of my game so please feel free to tear apart my assigned range, PokerStove gives me this;

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77 games 0.000 secs 15,400 games/sec

Board: 3d 4d 4h 2s Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.961% 38.96% 00.00% 30 0.00 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 61.039% 61.04% 00.00% 47 0.00 { 99-22, A5s-A4s, 65s, A5o-A4o, 65o }

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Thoughts?

[Savy]

Shove, if you don't want to shove you need to make your bet on the turn smaller so it doesn't commit you to the pot.

[Cobra_1878]

Edited due to change in range assigned to villain.

[Deucebag]

Why don't you include 22 in his range? Why don't you think he's slow playing AA, KK, QQ, or JJ? Does 56 fall into his range?

[Cobra_1878]

Why don't you include 22 in his range? Why don't you think he's slow playing AA, KK, QQ, or JJ? Does 56 fall into his range?

I'm not sure he calls with 22 on the flop, I could include that in villain's range. Hadn't even thought about including 56s either, as I said, it;s the weakest part of my game. I always seem to forget obvious hands.

I doubt he is slow playing TT+ because he has 50% steal and raises 20% of his hands.

Will update villains range now and I have a feeling it will change a lot.

[spoonitnow]

You're crushing his calling range, the majority of which he will not bet if you check, and you're not going to get him to bluff often enough if you check to turn TT into a bluff catcher here. I think you're drastically underestimating your equity against his calling range here because you aren't taking into consideration the times that he raises on the flop or turn with hands that beat you. Shooooove.

Edit: As an aside, I would never bluff here. (Holy shit, did I really just say that?)

[Cobra_1878]

You're crushing his calling range, the majority of which he will not bet if you check, and you're not going to get him to bluff often enough if you check to turn TT into a bluff catcher here. I think you're drastically underestimating your equity against his calling range here because you aren't taking into consideration the times that he raises on the flop or turn with hands that beat you. Shooooove.

Edit: As an aside, I would never bluff here. (Holy shit, did I really just say that?)

OK, are you suggesting we take hands like 33 and 56s/56o out of villains range here?

Are there any more hands? If villain had 4x do we expect him to raise?

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

54 games 0.000 secs 10,800 games/sec

Board: 3d 4d 4h 2s Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 55.56% 00.00% 30 0.00 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 44.444% 44.44% 00.00% 24 0.00 { 99-55, A5s-A4s, A5o-A4o }

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Would you say that's closer to Villain's calling range?

[daviddem]

One thing with your range: you can't really take away all FD from his range ott, because he has FD+overcards or combo draws also. Do you really think he would fold stuff like Qd9d, 9dTd or a combo draw like 6d7d ott?

Also if he is 38/20 with 50% steal, I'd think he would open most of his PP preflop on the button, certainly stuff like 88 and 99.

Personally I am struggling with pokerstove to get you more than 50% equity vs his calling range, maybe Spoon and Imsavy can enlighten us with their ranges:

Board: 3d 4d 4h 2s Kc
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     51.429%      51.43%     00.00%                 18             0.00   { ThTs }
Hand 1:     48.571%      48.57%     00.00%                 17             0.00   { 77-22, A5s-A4s, 65s }

and that's assuming he calls a shove with 55, 66 and 77, and assuming he would fold A5o-A4o preflop, so it seems a bit optimistic. I also didn't give him 64s, 54s and 43s which are not impossible. You could argue that trips would raise at some point, but I am not so sure, why would he if you keep shoveling money to him (facing a probable overpair, there is not much for him to fear from draws).

So in the end, I am not so sure about shoving. Is c/c horrible here, as it gives him the opportunity to bluff his busted draws?

[Icanhastreebet]

So in the end, I am not so sure about shoving. Is c/c horrible here, as it gives him the opportunity to bluff his busted draws?

Why aren't you including AKs/KQs/KJs/KTs that had a flush draw on earlier streets. Also you should definitely be excluding almost all 4x/33/22(this one probably even folds flop some %). I think this makes it an easy shovel as a tonne of his shit is going to check back on K river. Now if we know he's a huge station w/ draws and will bluff in desperation we can check but that doesn't make the option better then shoving. The only way it becomes better then shoving is if he is easily scared by overcards but I doubt we have that read.

I also think using pokerstove is a very poor way to learn these situations. You should be able to quickly count combos in your hand rather then have to punch a bunch of hands into pokerstove and probably not even realize how many combos their is. It's super easy to count all possible hands in hold em quickly if you practice it particularly when there is a bet on every street.

The reason you use pokerstove on flop/turn is because it's more difficult (relative to the river) to assign equities for hundreds of different hands although we could probably do this categorically and be pretty accurate with practice sort of like you do it in PLO except easier...Actually that's a pretty good exercise if you actually want to get good. Next time you review some hands assign ranges and estimate equities in some time interval. See how close you come and eventually try to shorten this time interval while hopefully maintaining good accuracy.

[spoonitnow]

I wonder what the best hand is that I would check with here? Probably 77?

[daviddem]

Why aren't you including AKs/KQs/KJs/KTs that had a flush draw on earlier streets

The reason I didn't put these in the river calling range is that all these hands would likely raise preflop. I would probably include other Kdxd in the river calling range, but that only makes Hero's equity worse.

Also you should definitely be excluding almost all 4x/33/22(this one probably even folds flop some %)

Why? You think he never limps/calls A4, 54s, 64s, 43s and 23s? Or you think he would raise with these at some point (but why throw Hero off his hand while he is shoveling money at him?). Also I don't see why he could not limp/call 33 and 22, and yes, 22 will fold the flop a non zero % of the time but he may also decide to float because the flop largely missed the range of Hero.

And yes I can count combos, just not as fast as pokerstove can. If you like I will do it manually next time.

So I don't argue that you and Spoon are probably right because you are better players than me, but I would like an idea of what you think his river calling range is, why we should exclude all 4x and 22-33 and Kdxd while at the same time you think he would call a shove with 66-88 and then we can argue from there.

edit: and he probably also opens 66+ preflop. 50% steal (15/30).

Now if we know he's a huge station w/ draws and will bluff in desperation we can check but that doesn't make the option better then shoving.

40/20 with 75% limp/call is not stationey enough? And then bluffing the river when they missed and are checked to, is that not what they often do? Even Spoon said recently that bet-bet-c/c is a standard postflop line vs villains who chase draws.

[spoonitnow]

40/20 with 75% limp/call is not stationey enough? And then bluffing the river when they missed and are checked to, is that not what they often do? Even Spoon said recently that bet-bet-c/c is a standard postflop line vs villains who chase draws.

The underlined portion isn't relevant if A) we don't expect him to bluff with draws, and B) he has a lot of hands he'll call with that will not bet when checked to.

Villain could have flopped a boat or quads, and 22 probably calls the flop a decent percentage of the time. Villain rarely has a K (would have raised pre-flop with broadways and doesn't limp enough to have Kxs often), rarely has 65 or 54 or 43 (would have raised flop or turn b/c of flush draw), rarely has A4 (would have raised at some point b/c of flush draw), and rarely has A5 (would have raised turn b/c of flush draw). However, 55-99 are very likely to be played exactly as Villain has played them.

Board: 4d 3d 4h 2s Kc

Beats us: 22, 33, 44, 43, 54, 65, A4, A5
We beat: 55, 66, 77, 88, 99

I'll weight the hands with the following approximations:

22 - 2 combos, folds the flop sometimes
33 - 3 combos, probably always plays it this way
44 - 1 combo, probably always plays it this way
43s - 1 combo, 2 are available but probably folds it pre-flop sometimes
54s - 1 combo, 2 are available but he raises turn often
65s - 2 combos, 4 are available but he raises turn often
A4 - 4 combos, 8 are available be he raises flop or turn often
A5 - 6 combos, 16 are available but he folds flop sometimes and raises turn often

55 - 5 combos, 6 available, but possibly folds river
66 - 5 combos, 6 available, but possibly folds river
77 - 6 combos, probably always plays it this way and calls river
88 - 6 combos, probably always plays it this way and calls river
99 - 4 combos, 6 available, but possibly raises pre-flop

With these approximations, we have a decent value bet on the river.

[daviddem]

OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
- his PFR is 20% and his steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my steal % is around 30-32% and average I open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a maniac I might limp call 22-66 to set mine).
- even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put hero on a stone cold bluff to call a shove. With this line, Hero's range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the river K and busted flush draws). So villain would have to think that Hero pretty much always triple barrels his air to justify a call. Not saying he would never call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always call is stretching it imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the river K and a pot sized shove in his face.
- you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in villain's range. Fishies love suited cards.

edit: OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful

[spoonitnow]

Eaaaassssyyyy shhhhoooovvvveeee.

[Cobra_1878]

OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
- his PFR is 20% and his steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my steal % is around 30-32% and average I open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a maniac I might limp call 22-66 to set mine).
- even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put hero on a stone cold bluff to call a shove. With this line, Hero's range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the river K and busted flush draws). So villain would have to think that Hero pretty much always triple barrels his air to justify a call. Not saying he would never call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always call is stretching it imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the river K and a pot sized shove in his face.
- you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in villain's range. Fishies love suited cards.

edit: OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful

SB folds to raise pre, SB is not of concern.

What sort of post flop stats are you looking for? I assume most stats you need would require a large number of hands on villain, which I don't have.

[daviddem]

SB folds to raise pre, SB is not of concern.

What sort of post flop stats are you looking for? I assume most stats you need would require a large number of hands on villain, which I don't have.

SB stats are mildly relevant in the sense that it may influence how villain plays his button (if SB -or you- 3b 100% button raises to take an extreme example). So SB 3b vs steal, SB fold to steal - and your same stats as well at that table.

If you have 15/30 for his steal stat you must have a semi-decent number of hands on villain?

Post flop aggression, fold to cbet, float, any hands where he slow played, any reads from hands where he went to showdown like stationing with draws, bluffing, etc.

[daviddem]

Eaaaassssyyyy shhhhoooovvvveeee.

OK, OK. No further argument.

[Cobra_1878]

SB stats are mildly relevant in the sense that it may influence how villain plays his button (if SB -or you- 3b 100% button raises to take an extreme example). So SB 3b vs steal, SB fold to steal - and your same stats as well at that table.

If you have 15/30 for his steal stat you must have a semi-decent number of hands on villain?

Post flop aggression, fold to cbet, float, any hands where he slow played, any reads from hands where he went to showdown like stationing with draws, bluffing, etc.

PT4's steal stat comes from LP, at 6max this covers CO/BTN. His steal from button is 64%, 9/14. I apologize for not making that clear in OP, my bad.

Flop aggression was 5.67, with flop aggression frequency at 68%. He floated 67% of the time, 4/6 but I think that stat is irrelevant on sample size. Villain's fold to cbet is in OP. I have 157 hands on villain, with no other reads. I tend not to take notes against loose villains and just VB them, if he had slow played anything, I would have a note on it.

[daviddem]

Someone tells me the open limping range of this guy otb