[2NL] TT OOP facing river decision

One thing with your range: you can't really take away all FD from his range ott, because he has FD+overcards or combo draws also. Do you really think he would fold stuff like Qd9d, 9dTd or a combo draw like 6d7d ott?

Also if he is 38/20 with 50% steal, I'd think he would open most of his PP preflop on the button, certainly stuff like 88 and 99.

Personally I am struggling with pokerstove to get you more than 50% equity vs his calling range, maybe Spoon and Imsavy can enlighten us with their ranges:

Code:

Board: 3d 4d 4h 2s Kc
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     51.429%      51.43%     00.00%                 18             0.00   { ThTs }
Hand 1:     48.571%      48.57%     00.00%                 17             0.00   { 77-22, A5s-A4s, 65s }

and that's assuming he calls a shove with 55, 66 and 77, and assuming he would fold A5o-A4o preflop, so it seems a bit optimistic. I also didn't give him 64s, 54s and 43s which are not impossible. You could argue that trips would raise at some point, but I am not so sure, why would he if you keep shoveling money to him (facing a probable overpair, there is not much for him to fear from draws).

So in the end, I am not so sure about shoving. Is c/c horrible here, as it gives him the opportunity to bluff his busted draws?

Originally Posted by daviddem

So in the end, I am not so sure about shoving. Is c/c horrible here, as it gives him the opportunity to bluff his busted draws?

Why aren't you including AKs/KQs/KJs/KTs that had a flush draw on earlier streets. Also you should definitely be excluding almost all 4x/33/22(this one probably even folds flop some %). I think this makes it an easy shovel as a tonne of his shit is going to check back on K river. Now if we know he's a huge station w/ draws and will bluff in desperation we can check but that doesn't make the option better then shoving. The only way it becomes better then shoving is if he is easily scared by overcards but I doubt we have that read.

I also think using pokerstove is a very poor way to learn these situations. You should be able to quickly count combos in your hand rather then have to punch a bunch of hands into pokerstove and probably not even realize how many combos their is. It's super easy to count all possible hands in hold em quickly if you practice it particularly when there is a bet on every street.

The reason you use pokerstove on flop/turn is because it's more difficult (relative to the river) to assign equities for hundreds of different hands although we could probably do this categorically and be pretty accurate with practice sort of like you do it in PLO except easier...Actually that's a pretty good exercise if you actually want to get good. Next time you review some hands assign ranges and estimate equities in some time interval. See how close you come and eventually try to shorten this time interval while hopefully maintaining good accuracy.