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Why aren't you including AKs/KQs/KJs/KTs that had a flush draw on earlier streets
The reason I didn't put these in the river calling range is that all these hands would likely raise preflop. I would probably include other Kdxd in the river calling range, but that only makes Hero's equity worse.
Also you should definitely be excluding almost all 4x/33/22(this one probably even folds flop some %)
Why? You think he never limps/calls A4, 54s, 64s, 43s and 23s? Or you think he would raise with these at some point (but why throw Hero off his hand while he is shoveling money at him?). Also I don't see why he could not limp/call 33 and 22, and yes, 22 will fold the flop a non zero % of the time but he may also decide to float because the flop largely missed the range of Hero.
And yes I can count combos, just not as fast as pokerstove can. If you like I will do it manually next time.
So I don't argue that you and Spoon are probably right because you are better players than me, but I would like an idea of what you think his river calling range is, why we should exclude all 4x and 22-33 and Kdxd while at the same time you think he would call a shove with 66-88 and then we can argue from there.
edit: and he probably also opens 66+ preflop. 50% steal (15/30).
Now if we know he's a huge station w/ draws and will bluff in desperation we can check but that doesn't make the option better then shoving.
40/20 with 75% limp/call is not stationey enough? And then bluffing the river when they missed and are checked to, is that not what they often do? Even Spoon said recently that bet-bet-c/c is a standard postflop line vs villains who chase draws.
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