OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
- his
PFR is 20% and his
steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my
steal % is around 30-32% and average I
open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a
maniac I might
limp call 22-66 to
set mine).
- even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put
hero on a
stone cold bluff to
call a
shove. With this
line,
Hero's
range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the
river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the
river K and
busted flush draws). So
villain would have to think that
Hero pretty much always triple barrels his
air to justify a
call. Not saying he would never
call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always
call is stretching it
imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the
river K and a pot sized
shove in his face.
- you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in
villain's
range. Fishies love
suited cards.
edit:
OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful