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 Originally Posted by daviddem
40/20 with 75% limp/ call is not stationey enough? And then bluffing the river when they missed and are checked to, is that not what they often do? Even Spoon said recently that bet-bet-c/c is a standard postflop line vs villains who chase draws.
The underlined portion isn't relevant if A) we don't expect him to bluff with draws, and B) he has a lot of hands he'll call with that will not bet when checked to.
Villain could have flopped a boat or quads, and 22 probably calls the flop a decent percentage of the time. Villain rarely has a K (would have raised pre-flop with broadways and doesn't limp enough to have Kxs often), rarely has 65 or 54 or 43 (would have raised flop or turn b/c of flush draw), rarely has A4 (would have raised at some point b/c of flush draw), and rarely has A5 (would have raised turn b/c of flush draw). However, 55-99 are very likely to be played exactly as Villain has played them.
Board: 4d 3d 4h 2s Kc
Beats us: 22, 33, 44, 43, 54, 65, A4, A5
We beat: 55, 66, 77, 88, 99
I'll weight the hands with the following approximations:
22 - 2 combos, folds the flop sometimes
33 - 3 combos, probably always plays it this way
44 - 1 combo, probably always plays it this way
43s - 1 combo, 2 are available but probably folds it pre-flop sometimes
54s - 1 combo, 2 are available but he raises turn often
65s - 2 combos, 4 are available but he raises turn often
A4 - 4 combos, 8 are available be he raises flop or turn often
A5 - 6 combos, 16 are available but he folds flop sometimes and raises turn often
55 - 5 combos, 6 available, but possibly folds river
66 - 5 combos, 6 available, but possibly folds river
77 - 6 combos, probably always plays it this way and calls river
88 - 6 combos, probably always plays it this way and calls river
99 - 4 combos, 6 available, but possibly raises pre-flop
With these approximations, we have a decent value bet on the river.
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