AJ Multiway Pot with Flush draw

[supa]

Boris, you need to factor our call into the math when you're calculating pot odds. We aren't paying .20 to win .68, we're paying .20 to win .88. With our overs we have great odds to call this flop whether we get calls behind or not. But realize this isn't only due to our flush draw, we're closer to 5:1 than 4:1 with our fd and our overs make up for the rest.

[Fnord]

6 to the flop in a full ring game, our overs won't win the pot very often. We'll either get bluffed off them or be no good quite often. If there was a little paint on the flop or turn, they get even worse.

However we should also consider:

o What are our chances to win the pot without hitting our hand? Is there any way we can read the aggressor for a draw or otherwise narrow his range?

o How much money can we expect to make if we hit our draw? Drawing to the nut flush is huge here because we can expect weaker flushes to pay us off more often than not.

o What are the chances we can get other players to call behind us who are drawing independent or dead to our hand?

o What are the chances we could get someone to fold a hand like AK or A6 behind us and clean up some outs (more of a limit concept, but could apply in NLHE.)

o What are the chances it gets raised behind us and will be need to fold our equity or put in a lot more money with the worst of it.

This is a really easy flop + turn call because we're drawing so strong and welcome multiway action.

[BorisTheSpider]

Boris, you need to factor our call into the math when you're calculating pot odds. We aren't paying .20 to win .68, we're paying .20 to win .88. With our overs we have great odds to call this flop whether we get calls behind or not. But realize this isn't only due to our flush draw, we're closer to 5:1 than 4:1 with our fd and our overs make up for the rest.

Hi Supa,

No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.

[Razvan729]

Hi Supa,

No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.

no you dont. if you shove 10.000$ in a 1$ pot i need 49,99% equity for a 0EV call and more for a +EV call.

when you call a bet , the math is this. bet/(pot+bet). if your equity is higher then this result, then your call is +EV, if equals is 0EV, if lower, is -EV.

Ex. pot is 10$. your opp bets 7$. so pot is now 17$.
math : 7/(17+7)=29,1%.
so if your hands equity vs his betting range is higher then 29,1% then your call is + EV
if your hands equity is lower then 29,1% then your call is -EV if this is a AI situation, if not you can start considering your implieds odd, but just on pot odds the call is -EV.

[gotigers1234]

No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.

Wow never thought about pot odds in this way. Thanks for the insight Boris. I am guessing you are not a new player like me.

[BorisTheSpider]

Wow never thought about pot odds in this way. Thanks for the insight Boris. I am guessing you are not a new player like me.

Perhaps not so new, but I have a lot to learn.

Here's some probabilities to hit a draw, and the odds you need to call profitably. They are very rough numbers in places and you should google for a proper list, something like "odds and outs" as a search phrase should do. I'm just posting this to give you a feel for the kind of chance of drawing out you have approximately with different draws.

Gutshot straight draw: 8% chance to make on one card, 16% on two. 11:1 and 5:1 respectively.

Overcards: 13% chance to hit on one card, 24% on two. 7:1 and 3:1 respectively.

Open ended straight draw: 17% and 32%, 5:1 and 2:1

Flush: 19% and 35%, 4:1 and 2:1

Open ended straight flush draw: 30% and 52%, 2.5:1 and 1:1


In general, if you count the cards that could make your draw remaining unseen (your outs), you can multiply them by 2 to get your single street percentage of the time you'll hit, and by 4 to get the percentage of the time you'll hit if you get to see both the turn and river for your call.

Eg. I have a flush draw, so 2 suited cards are in my hand and 2 are on the flop. That leaves 9 more of that suit card in the unseen cards left. My odds to hit a card of that suit on the turn are 9*2=18%, if I get to see both the turn and river for the call (ie. it's a call all-in for either me or the villain hence I know I'll get to see both cards with no further betting) then I have a 9*4=36% chance to hit my card, so I'll win 1/3 of the time approximately, and lose 2/3 of the time. Therefore, I can call a bet half the size of the pot when I call (ie. the flop pot plus the villains bet), because if I play this out over and over again, on the long run I'll win the whole pot one time for every two times I lose half the pot. If the bet is bigger than half the pot, I can't call profitably, if it's less, I can.

On the other hand, with an open ended straight flush draw, I have the 9 suited cards plus the 6 other offsuit cards that make the straight. 15 outs means a 30% chance on one card, or 60% seeing two more cards (a 10% or so overestimate of the real probability, as the 2*outs and 4*outs things are just approximations that are easy to use while playing). If I have a more than 50% chance to win the hand, I can call ANY size bet on the flop profitably. The pot will always pay me at least even money, and I have better chances to make my draw than 1 in 2.