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AJ Multiway Pot with Flush draw

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  1. #1

    Default AJ Multiway Pot with Flush draw

    Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
    BTN: $4.06
    SB: $3.80
    BB: $4.64
    UTG: $4.39
    UTG+1: $3.34
    MP1: $3.94
    Hero (MP2): $3.84
    CO: $3.98

    Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is MP2 with J A
    UTG calls $0.04, UTG+1 raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.08, SB calls $0.06, BB calls $0.04, UTG calls $0.04

    Flop: ($0.48) 4 6 3 (6 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds, BB calls $0.20, UTG folds

    Turn: ($1.28) 8 (4 players)
    BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, BTN raises to $0.80, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.55, Hero calls $0.55?????

    River: ($3.68) K (3 players)
    UTG+1 bets $1.00, Hero folds, BTN folds

    Is this a good move to call this turn bet. Should I have raised pre??
  2. #2
    You got $0.68 to $0.20 which is just under 3.5 to 1 pot odds to call the flop bet, so to see one card that's not quite enough odds but still, it's not a bad call especially in a multi-way pot where someone else might make a good hand that will pay you off.

    As it was, the other callers behind you made your odds for you, but you can't rely on them calling, and they may even have raised and pushed you out of the pot, but still, it's a much better play than the other flush draw you posted.

    The turn bet, you had more than enough odds to call - the pot was $1.53 when you called $0.25 into it so you got over 6 to 1, when the odds of making your flush on the river were 4 to 1.

    It's good that you called only with correct odds this time!

    You do need to consider when making this kind of call whether it might get raised behind you, pricing your odds out and meaning the call was not good. This is the danger of having the original raiser sat to your right - if he bets as he is normally quite likely to, you will have to call or raise without knowing what will happen when the action gets to anyone else in the pot.

    As it was you ended up paying $0.80 on the turn to keep your equity in a $3.68 pot, and given that your chance of drawing to the nuts (barring the smallish probability that you hit a club which also pairs the board and gives someone with a set a full house) here is 19% your equity was 0.19*$3.68=$0.70 so you ended up overpaying a bit, so your EV here is -$0.10, so had you been able to know that someone behind you would raise (or estimate a high enough probability of that happening) then you would be correct to fold UNLESS you could also count on other callers calling that raise to make the pot big enough to pay correct odds. That actually happened, so it worked out OK odds wise (or close to, which is much better than the other hand you posted).

    However, you didn't pay 80c into this pot - you paid $0.55 to stay in when the action came back around to you, which is 6 to 1 odds and a definite call.

    Each call in isolation was a good one and +EV, it's just that things can be more complicated than that in a multi-way pot where you have people left to act after you.

    Your opponent made a mistake by allowing you to draw with correct odds. You played correctly.

    Well done.

    Ps. as for raising pre, it's difficult to say.

    You might have:

    a. taken the pot down right there
    b. got called by the original raiser, and seen the flop heads up. You'd have had position on him, and may well have been able to get him to fold AQ/AJ/AK etc. etc. post flop
    c. got called by a bunch of people and ended up a bigger pot with a marginal hand
    d. got 4bet and had to fold pre flop
    e. got called by someone behind you and been out of position in a bigger pot with a marginal hand

    It all depends on reads, table dynamics and so on. The only way you can find out is to try sometime - don't go crazy and start playing loose maniac, but with a hand like this with reasonable equity against your opponents range (assuming he's not crazy tight), OCCASIONALLY 3bet a little light when you're in late position and there's one raiser in front of you and no callers, then use your positional advantage post flop to push him off unless you think he has a good chance of having a hand that won't fold. How do you know if that's the case? You have to know your villain, take into account the flop texture, the stack sizes, what he thinks you play like and so forth. You're only going to learn by falling on your ass a good few times, and 4NL is the place to do it.

    Just do it VERY sparingly at first, please, since I don't want to encourage you to start playing loose, but you can only learn by doing. Perhaps a good way to do so would be to allocate 1 buyin every now and then to trying a light 3bet or audacious bluff when you think it's a good spot to do so - call it $4 spent to learn something new, then post those hands, just set the money specifically aside and try to be patient and wait for what seems like a prime opportunity to try a big bluff before you "spend" the money. And just because you allocate $4, doesn't actually mean you have to stack off in that hand, you might try a light 3bet, get called, cbet the flop, get raised and give up losing $1 or whatever. Read up on semi-bluffing, and try first with some drawing hands that have a chance to make the best hand as well as having equity in getting villain to fold.

    As an example, to give you an idea of the kind of spot I'm suggesting you try this in, if you had reraised the posted hand preflop, got called and seen a 4flush, this would have been a good spot to try raising the flop for about a pot sized bet or even a little more at these stakes. That way, you'd have both a probability of them folding so you take the pot down right there, and if you do get called you have a chance to make the flush on the turn. Note that in this spot, if you did this then got raised back all in, you would have to have pot odds to call, since there would be no fold equity any more and your only chance to win would be to hit a card, but this would be a pretty good spot since not only would you have the flush draw, but your two overcards might also be good if you hit them if someone else has {77,88,99,TT} that they are willing to get all in with. If that was the case, you could hit any of 9 clubs, or the 6 other As and Js, so you'd have 15 cards out of 47 unseen that win the hand, meaning you have a 54% chance to hit by the river.
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 03-27-2012 at 06:26 PM.
  3. #3
    Every street is pretty standard. Fix your luckbox!

    Nice game selection.
  4. #4
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    nice hand, well played
  5. #5
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    Boris, you need to factor our call into the math when you're calculating pot odds. We aren't paying .20 to win .68, we're paying .20 to win .88. With our overs we have great odds to call this flop whether we get calls behind or not. But realize this isn't only due to our flush draw, we're closer to 5:1 than 4:1 with our fd and our overs make up for the rest.
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

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  6. #6
    6 to the flop in a full ring game, our overs won't win the pot very often. We'll either get bluffed off them or be no good quite often. If there was a little paint on the flop or turn, they get even worse.

    However we should also consider:

    o What are our chances to win the pot without hitting our hand? Is there any way we can read the aggressor for a draw or otherwise narrow his range?

    o How much money can we expect to make if we hit our draw? Drawing to the nut flush is huge here because we can expect weaker flushes to pay us off more often than not.

    o What are the chances we can get other players to call behind us who are drawing independent or dead to our hand?

    o What are the chances we could get someone to fold a hand like AK or A6 behind us and clean up some outs (more of a limit concept, but could apply in NLHE.)

    o What are the chances it gets raised behind us and will be need to fold our equity or put in a lot more money with the worst of it.

    This is a really easy flop + turn call because we're drawing so strong and welcome multiway action.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by supa View Post
    Boris, you need to factor our call into the math when you're calculating pot odds. We aren't paying .20 to win .68, we're paying .20 to win .88. With our overs we have great odds to call this flop whether we get calls behind or not. But realize this isn't only due to our flush draw, we're closer to 5:1 than 4:1 with our fd and our overs make up for the rest.

    Hi Supa,

    No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.
  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Hi Supa,

    No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.
    no you dont. if you shove 10.000$ in a 1$ pot i need 49,99% equity for a 0EV call and more for a +EV call.

    when you call a bet , the math is this. bet/(pot+bet). if your equity is higher then this result, then your call is +EV, if equals is 0EV, if lower, is -EV.

    Ex. pot is 10$. your opp bets 7$. so pot is now 17$.
    math : 7/(17+7)=29,1%.
    so if your hands equity vs his betting range is higher then 29,1% then your call is + EV
    if your hands equity is lower then 29,1% then your call is -EV if this is a AI situation, if not you can start considering your implieds odd, but just on pot odds the call is -EV.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    No, you can't include your call in the pot odds calculation. For example, in a $1 pot heads up at the flop, if I jam for $10,000 more, you're not getting 2:1 to call, which would be breakeven odds if you'd draw out one third of the time, you're getting even money so you need a 50% or better chance to win to call that bet.
    Wow never thought about pot odds in this way. Thanks for the insight Boris. I am guessing you are not a new player like me.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by gotigers1234 View Post
    Wow never thought about pot odds in this way. Thanks for the insight Boris. I am guessing you are not a new player like me.
    Perhaps not so new, but I have a lot to learn.

    Here's some probabilities to hit a draw, and the odds you need to call profitably. They are very rough numbers in places and you should google for a proper list, something like "odds and outs" as a search phrase should do. I'm just posting this to give you a feel for the kind of chance of drawing out you have approximately with different draws.

    Gutshot straight draw: 8% chance to make on one card, 16% on two. 11:1 and 5:1 respectively.

    Overcards: 13% chance to hit on one card, 24% on two. 7:1 and 3:1 respectively.

    Open ended straight draw: 17% and 32%, 5:1 and 2:1

    Flush: 19% and 35%, 4:1 and 2:1

    Open ended straight flush draw: 30% and 52%, 2.5:1 and 1:1


    In general, if you count the cards that could make your draw remaining unseen (your outs), you can multiply them by 2 to get your single street percentage of the time you'll hit, and by 4 to get the percentage of the time you'll hit if you get to see both the turn and river for your call.

    Eg. I have a flush draw, so 2 suited cards are in my hand and 2 are on the flop. That leaves 9 more of that suit card in the unseen cards left. My odds to hit a card of that suit on the turn are 9*2=18%, if I get to see both the turn and river for the call (ie. it's a call all-in for either me or the villain hence I know I'll get to see both cards with no further betting) then I have a 9*4=36% chance to hit my card, so I'll win 1/3 of the time approximately, and lose 2/3 of the time. Therefore, I can call a bet half the size of the pot when I call (ie. the flop pot plus the villains bet), because if I play this out over and over again, on the long run I'll win the whole pot one time for every two times I lose half the pot. If the bet is bigger than half the pot, I can't call profitably, if it's less, I can.

    On the other hand, with an open ended straight flush draw, I have the 9 suited cards plus the 6 other offsuit cards that make the straight. 15 outs means a 30% chance on one card, or 60% seeing two more cards (a 10% or so overestimate of the real probability, as the 2*outs and 4*outs things are just approximations that are easy to use while playing). If I have a more than 50% chance to win the hand, I can call ANY size bet on the flop profitably. The pot will always pay me at least even money, and I have better chances to make my draw than 1 in 2.
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 03-28-2012 at 05:24 PM.
  11. #11
    Actually, I think both boris and razvan are right, in a sense.

    The confusion comes from the subtle difference between EV/required equity calculations and pot odd calculations.

    As far as I understand it, in calculating pot odds, we are not risking call for call + pot. Pot odds are expressed as ratio current pot size to call. Therefore pot odds should be calculated as risking .20 for pot of .68 or .68 to .20. or roughly 2.5 to 1 in original example. This agrees with Boris

    To calculate required equity for the call, THEN the required equity is the ratio of .20/.88. This is not the risk for gain ratio. This is actually derived from the following math:

    EV = P(win) * potsize - P(lose) * callsize >= 0
    P(win) * potsize - (1-P(win) * callsize)) >=0
    P(win) * potsize -callsize + P(win)*callsize >=0
    P(win)(potsize +callsize) - callsize >=0
    P(win) >= callsize/(potsize+callsize)

    As you can see, although the required expectation is .20/.88 this is NOT
    risking .20 for .88. This is risking .20 for potsize which is .68

    Finally, what Boris is saying reduces to what Razvan is saying anyway.
    For example, an example he gave was 2 to 1 pot odds requires winning 1 in 3
    to break even, which is correct and also is the same as the result from
    the expectation formula: callsize = 1, pot size is 2, P(win) must be 1/1+2 = 1/3.
  12. #12
    lots of talk about direct pot odds goin' on and none about the awesome implied odds that are goin' on in multi-ways with fish 100ish deep.
  13. #13
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    Read fnords post and try and understand why are we asking ourselves these questions and you will become a better player because of it.

    Also like d0zer said implied odds is huge here. Even if we are getting shitty odds v the initial bettor the fact that this goes multiway from street to street a huge amount(passive opponents etc.) and the fact that anytime we bink our flush or we bink our flush when someone has a straight/two pair/trips/overpair they can't fold with a fd or basically any hand that pays us off is HUGE.

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