Factoring in reverse implied odds in a ver sppecefic situation

[littleogre]

Ok i call a pfr with a big ace like AT+. Villain c-bets. I have A gutshot draw. Now i know i need around 10-1 to call. Now here is the tricky part atleast it's tricky for me. Lets say that villain has is a post flop nit and that he has a set in this spot at least 60 percent of the time and thus he will have redraws to a boat. Now what odds do i need?

[littleogre]

sorry forgot to add that if we hit our str8 on the turn the money is always going in and if we miss we a folding.

[Outlaw]

None of the cards that pair the board give you a straight.. so it affects nothing. You want him to have a set here.

And if the board pairs, you can just fold.

[JKDS]

We compare our chance to hit with the odds the pot is offering because

EV of a call = x*(Pot+bet) - (1-x)bet.

Let it equal 0,

then

x/1-x = b/b+p.

So if we're calling 1 to win 3, we solve for x such that the function x/1-x = 1/3. In this case, x would be 25%. So our chance to win must be at least 25:75 = 1:3, which is the same as the call of 1: pot of 3 odds we were given.

To go further, we just set up a different EV equation and solve that one the same way.

[littleogre]

None of the cards that pair the board give you a straight.. so it affects nothing. You want him to have a set here.

And if the board pairs, you can just fold.

Ok well i don't think i was very clear with my question so lets try again.

To simplify things lets assume the following things.
1 we know the turn card will complete or Gs draw
2 we know that villain will insta shove the turn
3 We know villain flopped bottom set and thus will have 1 out to make quads and 9 outs to make a boat. Atleast i think thats right.
4 We don't know what the river will bring.

Ok so now we know that our str8 will not win every time and thus we need better then 10-1 to account for redraw i just don't know how much.

[littleogre]

We compare our chance to hit with the odds the pot is offering because

EV of a call = x*(Pot+bet) - (1-x)bet.

Let it equal 0,

then

x/1-x = b/b+p.

So if we're calling 1 to win 3, we solve for x such that the function x/1-x = 1/3. In this case, x would be 25%. So our chance to win must be at least 25:75 = 1:3, which is the same as the call of 1: pot of 3 odds we were given.

To go further, we just set up a different EV equation and solve that one the same way.

I can chase gutshots gettin 3-1? That doesn't sound right. Perhaps i am misunderstanding you?

[Outlaw]

Your odds are not what is in the pot now, if you know you are getting the rest it is based on stack odds. If it is $1 to win his $25 stack, then it is 25-1.

In multiway pots with rainbow flops, I almost always call 1 street with a baby gutshot str8 draw. I have won some monster pots this way.

[JKDS]

I showed you how this thing called pot odds just comes from solving an EV equation. If you want to go into specific scenarios were we arent getting the right price and villain can redraw and a whole bunch of other factors, you need to adjust your EV equation appropriately in order to solve for it.

Ya, its kinda gay to set up...and even when you do there might not be an easy way to say what our pot odds need to be. But thats life.

[littleogre]

Your odds are not what is in the pot now, if you know you are getting the rest it is based on stack odds. If it is $1 to win his $25 stack, then it is 25-1.

In multiway pots with rainbow flops, I almost always call 1 street with a baby gutshot str8 draw. I have won some monster pots this way.

With all due respect what have i wrote that makes you think that i don't understand implied odds? If we need to call 1$ to possible win a total of 25 then of ofcourse our imlied odds are 25-1 and we would be more then happy to call with a gutshot. As we would win that 25 bucks 10 percent of the time. Thats to say we would win 2.5. We would give away our 1 buck 90 percent of the time. Thats ofcourse 90 cents So a call has a ev of 1.6.

Now lets try and think about the odd of him hit a boat or quads on the river on the river. This is one part where i get a little lost. He has 10 outs and 46 cards left in the deck10/46=21.7 percent. So he has a 21.7 percent chance of sucking out on the river.

So lets add it up
we miss + -.9
we hit and win =+2.5
we hit and he sucks out (% of time we have to give back our 2.5 winnings=2.5x21.7%=-54.2 cents

so the over all ev of calling is 1.058 Now i'm not sure how to set up an ev equation in this situation so i'll just keep trying different numbers. Lets change the available money to 20.
we still loose .9 when we miss but now we only win 2 win we hit and the hand holds up. however we only get to keep that 2 bucks 78.3 percent of the time. So that averages out to be 1.56. So ev=.66. Still in the black.

Now lets try when the money to win is 15.
-.9
Anyway the ev is .27.

Now lets say the money up for grabs is 10
-.9
+1-.783=21.7-.9=-68. So even though in a vacuum we are getting odds to to chase a gutter ball calling would infact be bad if we knew he floped a set. Anyway lets try with 12 bucks to win
-.9
+.93 ev=3cents.

So the break even point is somewhere between 11-1 and 12-1

[littleogre]

i know my math may be wrong but your villains redraw odd clearly effect the odds you need to call with any given draw,

[supa]

From a noobs view,we still can't take into consideration villains cards when calculating outs.X amount of cards hit our hand to win.If we don't hit we are still behind.It doesn't matter if villain has a set or hits a boat.We still lose.At least in this situation.

[Penneywize]

Hey ogre, I've been working on some implied odds / reverse implied odds calculations lately, I'll try and get back to this thread later and run the numbers for your / our benefit.

That is unless someone else comes in here and posts it up in which case I'll secretly hate that person forever.

Edit: 400th post, only took me 5 1/2 years, woot!

[supa]

I thought about it for awhile at I get your point.The problem being that if we hit the turn,what are the chances that villain hits the river and how does that affect our odds.I don't have it all worked out but I wanted to get my thoughts in before pennywize to see if I'm on the right track.

Effective factors-

We have a 9% chance of hitting the turn
We have a 17% chance of hitting both the turn or the river
Villain has a 22% chance of hittng the river only
We have a 78% chance of villain not hitting river

I didn't put in villains chance of hitting turn or both streets since if they hit the turn we're folding.

This is as far as I get.I'm gonna go think about it more.Hopefully my math is right'

Pennywize,don't be a hater.

edit: Ok,so...this might be really stupid but I'm goin in anyway.

We have a 17% chance of winning 78% of the time.

17% of 78 is 13.So we lose about 4% in reverse implied odds.

This assumes that we're going to the river and that villain does this 100% of the time.

Math makes my head mad at me.

[Outlaw]

I have no idea how to do complex math calculations while I play... or how to do them at all really lol. I wouldn't worry about putting arbitrary numbers on generic situations.. play each hand as they come and try not to over generalize.

[Imthenewfish]

I wrote all of this already but my internet crashed, so I'll try to sum it up again.
We hit our draw on the turn about 10% of the time and he boats the river about 20% of the time time. If we stack him everytime we hit it we get his stack 8% of the time, and he gets our stack 2% of the time, and we miss our draw on the turn 90% of the time. You can insert what you know now, but you never told us about the information we need (Sizes of stacks, bet sizing). The thing that makes this impossible to calculate here is that in buying the turn for a chance to get it in, we also buy another chance to draw. If we're really deep enough here to be drawing to a gutshot, and his bet sizing is really small, it sounds like we'll have a situation where we can draw to it on the river again. However, unless you have superhuman reads on him, I doubt that we can put this into our calculations.

[Outlaw]

Ug, I hate math.. I try to do as little as possible while playing.

[littleogre]

I wrote all of this already but my internet crashed, so I'll try to sum it up again.
We hit our draw on the turn about 10% of the time and he boats the river about 20% of the time time. If we stack him everytime we hit it we get his stack 8% of the time, and he gets our stack 2% of the time, and we miss our draw on the turn 90% of the time. You can insert what you know now, but you never told us about the information we need (Sizes of stacks, bet sizing). The thing that makes this impossible to calculate here is that in buying the turn for a chance to get it in, we also buy another chance to draw. If we're really deep enough here to be drawing to a gutshot, and his bet sizing is really small, it sounds like we'll have a situation where we can draw to it on the river again. However, unless you have superhuman reads on him, I doubt that we can put this into our calculations.

Well i have 17k hands on villain and in this specific situation he has a set 60 percent of the time. Also i'm we are assumeing that he will bet the turn and that we will fold if we miss.

[littleogre]

I have no idea how to do complex math calculations while I play... or how to do them at all really lol. I wouldn't worry about putting arbitrary numbers on generic situations.. play each hand as they come and try not to over generalize.

SAme boat here my friend i do them away from the table to use at the table. You really need thousands of hands on any given villain though if you want to get into post flop tendencies. It works best against robotic players. You may argue that by useing charts one is a robotic player and perhaps they are right. The goal tough is to have enough knowledge that you can constantly adapt to different unchanging players.

[littleogre]

Ok i think i figured out how to do it using ugly math but i want a nice algebraic formula with letters and stuff.

[supa]

Ok i think i figured out how to do it using ugly math but i want a nice algebraic formula with letters and stuff.

I edited my first reply if you wanna check my math to yours.Although I have no faith in mine.

[littleogre]

I edited my first reply if you wanna check my math to yours.Although I have no faith in mine.

Well for one we assume that villain will bet enough on the turn to force us to fold when we miss. So we only have 4/47 chance f hitting our draw. Or 8.5 percent besides that your math looks solid. Not that i'm qualified to judge.

[JKDS]

Why is there still no EV equation? Im not bullshitting you...pot odds/implied odds all comes straight from an EV calculation. If you want to know how often you can do something based on certain information you set up an EV equation, and make it look like the thing you want. I know you havent done one yet because you would have run into several problems based on the information given including what villain has the other 40% of the time.

You also seem to be traveling down a pretty dangerous road ogre. Poker is played against people, and people are constantly changing and adapting. I have 20k hands on pokerstars, and i was a way different person now than i was at the beginning of that 20k hands. At around hand 11k, i stopped cbetting like a monkey, so my average cbet% is probably much higher than what it is in reality. So even though you may have some data that says in the past villain had a set here 60% of the time...that doesnt tell you shit. The reason is that villain likely changed somewhere there and what your looking at is an average of his play, but not an accurate depiction of what his play currently is. Suppose villain is good, then hes on 2p2 and ftr and is constantly improving and changing (hopefully...). Suppose villain is bad, then maybe he recently watched Tom Dwan bluff Phil Ivey for more than 500k and now thinks poker is all about bluffing. Bottom line: YOU CANT USE STATS LIKE THIS. If you continue to youre only gonna find yourself losing, because even robotic players update their code once in awhile.

[littleogre]

Why is there still no EV equation? Im not bullshitting you...pot odds/implied odds all comes straight from an EV calculation. If you want to know how often you can do something based on certain information you set up an EV equation, and make it look like the thing you want. I know you havent done one yet because you would have run into several problems based on the information given including what villain has the other 40% of the time.

You also seem to be traveling down a pretty dangerous road ogre. Poker is played against people, and people are constantly changing and adapting. I have 20k hands on pokerstars, and i was a way different person now than i was at the beginning of that 20k hands. At around hand 11k, i stopped cbetting like a monkey, so my average cbet% is probably much higher than what it is in reality. So even though you may have some data that says in the past villain had a set here 60% of the time...that doesnt tell you shit. The reason is that villain likely changed somewhere there and what your looking at is an average of his play, but not an accurate depiction of what his play currently is. Suppose villain is good, then hes on 2p2 and ftr and is constantly improving and changing (hopefully...). Suppose villain is bad, then maybe he recently watched Tom Dwan bluff Phil Ivey for more than 500k and now thinks poker is all about bluffing. Bottom line: YOU CANT USE STATS LIKE THIS. If you continue to youre only gonna find yourself losing, because even robotic players update their code once in awhile.

That's just it though some players don't change or atleast they are very slow to change. I have almost 20 thousand hands on this particular villain. Even if i break it down into several 1000 hands samples he has a set atleast 55 percent of the time in each sample Lots of 2nl players play by a chart and they don't vary from said chart. Also this dude only raises 4.5 percent. Also once he raises pfr he never folds post flop unless he has air. It is strange though that he has a set more often then over pair hands and tptk. I can only assume that he is checking those hands a lot of the time. As far as seting up an ev equation i'm not sure how. I'll try though.

amount to call =1 total money to win =15
odds of turning a str8=8.5 percent
odds of him rivering a boat=21.7 percent .
ev=(-.91)+(15*4/47)-(15*10/46) -2.8. That seems way off though so me thinks my formula is missing something. I gave it an honest effort though

[Imthenewfish]

Why are you still at 2nl?

[JKDS]

If we're calling 1 to win 15 we're getting immediate odds to chase so working with those numbers is silly.

Proof:

Board: Kd Qs 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.148% 14.15% 00.00% 6723 0.00 { ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 85.852% 85.85% 00.00% 40797 0.00 { 22 }

We have a gutshot against a set on the flop, we'll hit 14% of the time, so we need to be given 1:6.14 pot odds. Even if we only consider the turn and half that, we only need 1:12.28 pot odds and we're given 1:15 so we can just blindly chase here.

//

So...how to form an ev equation:

EV = 'what we can win' * 'how often we win' - 'what we lose' * ' how often we lose'

Simple right? If we lose more often than we win then we need to win more money than those times we lose.

Ok, lets apply it to this situation

A standard EV equation for a call would be made how i outlined above

EV = '8% to hit' * 'the current pot size + his bet + the effective stack' - '92% to miss' * 'his bet'

Using formula...

EV = 8% * (p+b+s) - 92% * b

Normally, we would isolate these terms so we end with 8/92 = b/(p+b+s) and find what those values need to be in order for us to make a +EV call. With b=1, p=15, we find s can actually be negative here and still be +EV. Which is exactly what we expect.

Ok, now add the condition that we lose 20% of the time we hit. How does that change things?

Well, we are now only expected to win 80% of the time we hit right? So 80%*8% = 6.4% of the time we'll win. But also, that 20% of the time we hit and lose we're gonna lose our stack and the bet we called. So lets put these in the EV equation

EV= 6.4%*(p+b+s) - 92% *b - 1.6%*(b+s) right? (Check it, an ev equation must take into account all outcomes. So the probabilities of winning+losing must equal 100%. 6.4+92+1.6 = 100, ok good)

Ok, so what did we do with that last EV equation? We tried to get those b,p, and s terms by themselves after setting the equation equal to 0 ya. Lets try and do that.

6.4%(p+b+s) = 92%b + 1.6%(b+s). since the equation now equals 0

Right now though, it seems like we have a few too many terms. So lets simplify it since some cancel each other

6.4%p + 6.4%b + 6.4%s = 92%b +1.6%b + 1.6%s

Moving terms around we get

6.4%p +4.8%s = 87.2%b

We can bet b, p, and s bythemselves by being creative. 6.4%p +4.8%s is the same as 6.4%*(p+.75s).

So we have

6.4%(p+.75s) = 87.2%b

and by moving things around again

6.4% / 87.2% = b / (p+.75s)

.073 = b/ (p+.75s)

Sweet. So now lets say b=1, and p = 1. what does s have to be (ie, what do we have to win in addition to the pot to make calling profitable?)

.073 = 1/ (1+.75s)...........so.......13.69 = 1+.75s,......12.69 = .75s........s =16.93 so with a gutshot draw we need villain to have 16.93* the pot if we wanted to call a potsized bet given his redraw outs.

What was it before we knew he had a set and just assumed we'd win with our 8% outter?

Recall that we had 8/92 = b/(p+b+s), so if b=p=1 we'll find s=9.5.

Thats kinda cool. We needed about twice as much behind to call given that he could redraw on us.

But does that hold for different bet sizes?

Does that hold for different equities? Suppose we instead were drawing to a flush in the same scenario, how does it change now?

what if 60% of the time villain had a set, but the other 40% he had TP? A draw that dominated ours?

Answer these questions using what you learned from this post. I took alot of time writing this mainly cuz im bored but dont feel like grinding...but if you dont actually put in effort to answering these questions then it basically says you have no interest in learning...so answer them.

[daven]

So the break even point is somewhere between 11-1 and 12-1

sounds about right

You really need thousands of hands on any given villain though if you want to get into post flop tendencies.

strongly disagree.

also, re the hand example you posted (ignoring that it doesn't really matter in terms of getting better at poker, and is in fact a waste of your time) - the chance of villain rivering his redraw to the boat/quads is a simple matter of counting outs right? ten outs? so, close to 20% of the time you're gonna lose your stack, about 80% of the time you'll double up (taking a zero rake approach )
So, how about chucking those numbers into an ev equation, basically count your 4 turn outs, and the amount you win when you hit is determined from the 80% of times you win vs the 20% of times you lose. Add in the amount you lose when you miss the turn after calling, etc.
ez game? edit, just realised you already did something along these lines above - so thread is solved right?

[littleogre]

If we're calling 1 to win 15 we're getting immediate odds to chase so working with those numbers is silly.

Proof:

Board: Kd Qs 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.148% 14.15% 00.00% 6723 0.00 { ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 85.852% 85.85% 00.00% 40797 0.00 { 22 }

We have a gutshot against a set on the flop, we'll hit 14% of the time, so we need to be given 1:6.14 pot odds. Even if we only consider the turn and half that, we only need 1:12.28 pot odds and we're given 1:15 so we can just blindly chase here.

//

So...how to form an ev equation:

EV = 'what we can win' * 'how often we win' - 'what we lose' * ' how often we lose'

Simple right? If we lose more often than we win then we need to win more money than those times we lose.

Ok, lets apply it to this situation

A standard EV equation for a call would be made how i outlined above

EV = '8% to hit' * 'the current pot size + his bet + the effective stack' - '92% to miss' * 'his bet'

Using formula...

EV = 8% * (p+b+s) - 92% * b

Normally, we would isolate these terms so we end with 8/92 = b/(p+b+s) and find what those values need to be in order for us to make a +EV call. With b=1, p=15, we find s can actually be negative here and still be +EV. Which is exactly what we expect.

Ok, now add the condition that we lose 20% of the time we hit. How does that change things?

Well, we are now only expected to win 80% of the time we hit right? So 80%*8% = 6.4% of the time we'll win. But also, that 20% of the time we hit and lose we're gonna lose our stack and the bet we called. So lets put these in the EV equation

EV= 6.4%*(p+b+s) - 92% *b - 1.6%*(b+s) right? (Check it, an ev equation must take into account all outcomes. So the probabilities of winning+losing must equal 100%. 6.4+92+1.6 = 100, ok good)

Ok, so what did we do with that last EV equation? We tried to get those b,p, and s terms by themselves after setting the equation equal to 0 ya. Lets try and do that.

6.4%(p+b+s) = 92%b + 1.6%(b+s). since the equation now equals 0

Right now though, it seems like we have a few too many terms. So lets simplify it since some cancel each other

6.4%p + 6.4%b + 6.4%s = 92%b +1.6%b + 1.6%s

Moving terms around we get

6.4%p +4.8%s = 87.2%b

We can bet b, p, and s bythemselves by being creative. 6.4%p +4.8%s is the same as 6.4%*(p+.75s).

So we have

6.4%(p+.75s) = 87.2%b

and by moving things around again

6.4% / 87.2% = b / (p+.75s)

.073 = b/ (p+.75s)

Sweet. So now lets say b=1, and p = 1. what does s have to be (ie, what do we have to win in addition to the pot to make calling profitable?)

.073 = 1/ (1+.75s)...........so.......13.69 = 1+.75s,......12.69 = .75s........s =16.93 so with a gutshot draw we need villain to have 16.93* the pot if we wanted to call a potsized bet given his redraw outs.

What was it before we knew he had a set and just assumed we'd win with our 8% outter?

Recall that we had 8/92 = b/(p+b+s), so if b=p=1 we'll find s=9.5.

Thats kinda cool. We needed about twice as much behind to call given that he could redraw on us.

But does that hold for different bet sizes?

Does that hold for different equities? Suppose we instead were drawing to a flush in the same scenario, how does it change now?

what if 60% of the time villain had a set, but the other 40% he had TP? A draw that dominated ours?

Answer these questions using what you learned from this post. I took alot of time writing this mainly cuz im bored but dont feel like grinding...but if you dont actually put in effort to answering these questions then it basically says you have no interest in learning...so answer them.

ok just now seeing this post and i'm getting ready to eat lunch but i will try to solve those equations latter today.

[littleogre]

ok i just made a post trying to answer the post by jkds but accidentally erased it. I have been studying it though. One thing that always confused me about algebra is that numbers seem to come out of thin air. Example .073 = 1/ (1+.75s)...........so.......13.69 = 1+.75s,......12.69 = .75s........s =16.93. Where is he 13.69 coming from

[Keith]

.073 = 1/ (1+.75s)

.073 * (1+ .75s)=1

1+.75s=1/0.073= 13.69

.75s=13.69-1=12.69

[littleogre]

.073 = 1/ (1+.75s)

.073 * (1+ .75s)=1

1+.75s=1/0.073= 13.69
.073 * (1+ .75s)=1
.75s=13.69-1=12.69

ok well i admit i have no idea how to solve that Equation by hand but when i put it in Algebra Simplifier and Math Solver that SHOWS WORK i get s==16.9315068493151.

[JKDS]

If your interested in solving algebraic equations then google around. There are many many websites that teach things like how to solve these equations and even go over the rules you have to follow with them.

What we're interested in right now though, is if its beneficial to have solved that EV equation that i made since we can always use a math solver if we get stuck on the algebra. S=16.93150... is right but we're really only interested in maybe two decimal places maximum.

[littleogre]

ok i'm trying to do one of my own right now but could someone please explain why this 13.6%1 +10.2%1 = 69.4%1 is said to be unsolvable at an online algebra solver?

[Keith]

because you have effectively written 26% of 1 = 69% of 1 which implies 1=0 .

don't take this the wrong way , but you really don't need to be doing ev calculations and worrying about reverse implied odds to beat 2nl.

play tight so that your range is unbalanced and your range is going to be a lot stronger than your opponents in any hand you are involved in.At this level your opponents have never heard of a hand range so that you don't have to be playing suited connectors in early position to balance your ranges. That comes as you move up stakes and play against better players who will be taking notice of what you are playing. Playing the unbalanced strong ranges then will just mean that your monsters don't get paid off.

Fold to late street aggresion unless you have the nuts. If someone is willing to get thier stack in you want a very strong hand as they are likely to have a pretty strong hand
Don't chase gutshots unless you are priced in else you'll just endup spewing money over time.Just get the money in with your monsters as you will get paid.
Do some sweats , you'll have loads of faults pointed out to you that you probably don't realise are costing you money.

ok , you're probably saying to yourself , you don't know what its like down here at 2nl with lots of people seeing a flop.Had £3 on VC poker from my freerolling days and as i'm looking at moving away from stars last week I just decided to give it a whirl and some light relief from the grind.'

Think it works out at around 18 bb/100 which considering that I was half stacking with all my money on the tables and adding an extra table as i doubled up wasn't too bad. Downside of this strategy is that it restricts your winrate by not getting paid off fully with monsters , but the upside was that it minimised the risk to the bankroll which was all on the tables.Its pretty similar to one of jyms grinderschool videos at battlefield poker . Anyway as the roll grows i'll be increasing the buyin amounts and keeping some reserves.

If you are interested in a sweat send me a PM but bear in mind that i'm in the UK to schedule it.

[Imthenewfish]

Question) were you drunk when you wrote the title of this thread or did it have a limited number of characters you could use, so you trimmed off the letters that weren't very important?

[littleogre]

Question) were you drunk when you wrote the title of this thread or did it have a limited number of characters you could use, so you trimmed off the letters that weren't very important?

No my KB is messed up and sometimes the keys don't register when i hit them.