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 Originally Posted by Outlaw
Your odds are not what is in the pot now, if you know you are getting the rest it is based on stack odds. If it is $1 to win his $25 stack, then it is 25-1.
In multiway pots with rainbow flops, I almost always call 1 street with a baby gutshot str8 draw. I have won some monster pots this way.
With all due respect what have i wrote that makes you think that i don't understand implied odds? If we need to call 1$ to possible win a total of 25 then of ofcourse our imlied odds are 25-1 and we would be more then happy to call with a gutshot. As we would win that 25 bucks 10 percent of the time. Thats to say we would win 2.5. We would give away our 1 buck 90 percent of the time. Thats ofcourse 90 cents So a call has a ev of 1.6.
Now lets try and think about the odd of him hit a boat or quads on the river on the river. This is one part where i get a little lost. He has 10 outs and 46 cards left in the deck10/46=21.7 percent. So he has a 21.7 percent chance of sucking out on the river.
So lets add it up
we miss + -.9
we hit and win =+2.5
we hit and he sucks out (% of time we have to give back our 2.5 winnings=2.5x21.7%=-54.2 cents
so the over all ev of calling is 1.058 Now i'm not sure how to set up an ev equation in this situation so i'll just keep trying different numbers. Lets change the available money to 20.
we still loose .9 when we miss but now we only win 2 win we hit and the hand holds up. however we only get to keep that 2 bucks 78.3 percent of the time. So that averages out to be 1.56. So ev=.66. Still in the black.
Now lets try when the money to win is 15.
-.9
Anyway the ev is .27.
Now lets say the money up for grabs is 10
-.9
+1-.783=21.7-.9=-68. So even though in a vacuum we are getting odds to to chase a gutter ball calling would infact be bad if we knew he floped a set. Anyway lets try with 12 bucks to win
-.9
+.93 ev=3cents.
So the break even point is somewhere between 11-1 and 12-1
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