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Monotone flop & Ace on turn makes TPTK + nut Flush draw. Call shove? (5NL, FR micros)

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  1. #1
    First off, just a general q about preflop raises:

    Is it ever OK to min-raise in EP? AK (though I guess more so w/ AKs even) is sort of a drawing hand -- one that could flop nut straight draws, nut/near-nut flush draws, and of course TPTKs. I was thinking it might be OK sometimes to make a small-ish raise EP, especially at a table of nits, w/ this kind of hand. Maybe I'm wrong though.

    Alight, back to this hand....

    Quote Originally Posted by celtic123 View Post
    i see in another thread of yours

    You still have this problem of timid raises .
    Ha! Yes, good research. I know, I think this is officially a leak of mine now. Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    [ ] hand history was properly converted
    [ ] minraise preflop
    [ ] bet 1/3rd pot on flop
    [x] put your opponent on a goddamn range
    [x] how to: analyze calling an all-in
    Wait, did the hand converter not work correctly? I used Leggo 4-colors & it shows up ok for me, but maybe not for everyone else? Hmm. Sorry 'bout that. I'll check out the posts you mentioned. Thanks!

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Or, you could... Raise pre flop to at least $0.30, then put the callers on a range based on how often they are calling raises etc. With zero info, I'll stab a range of all pairs, all suited connectors 67+, suited aces and broadway for all three callers. These ranges are obviously a guess.

    Once flop comes down, either bet properly, or check. When UTG raises, narrow his range. He's now got something like 67s 78s 33-JJ, though it helps a lot if we know more about villain, ie does he 3bet JJ pre flop, or what does he do with 33 on this flop? How does he play Ax diamonds?
    OK, so I admit I'm not very good at figuring out equity (or using Pstove at this point) here's an attempt at the #'s and my line of thinking .... which, yes, I admit is not so savvy and may be fishy. But here goes:

    I couldn't put the villain on a straight bc there's no way he sees the flop w/ 87 or 32. He could have a set obviously as he'd probably call a PFR w/ 66-44 and definitely w/ AA. But I also don't necessarily see him shoving his set into a 4 person multiway w/ such a dripping wet flop (...or do I?).

    The A on the turn either made a set of aces which has me crushed. If it made a pair we're either chopping or I have his AQ, AJ, or maybe ATs beat, even if it includes one a spade. I don't see a nit seeing the flop w/ a weaker ace than that so I'm not too worried about something like A4 making two pair.

    Which leaves the flush he might have made on the flop. Combos here I think include KQ, KJ, QJ, and KT spades.

    So that's the range putting him on: four possible sets + the flush combos above. In PStove that comes out to ~48%, basically a coin flip. Am I way off here?
  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by rowhousepd View Post
    Is it ever OK to min-raise in EP?
    I don't know about never but from UTG, imo def not ok to min raise. Maybe from the co or btn when it's been folded around to you and the blinds are total nits. Min raising at 5NL UTG is just asking to get three, four or more callers. That's not good for AK.

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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by rowhousepd View Post
    OK, so I admit I'm not very good at figuring out equity (or using Pstove at this point) here's an attempt at the #'s and my line of thinking .... which, yes, I admit is not so savvy and may be fishy. But here goes:

    I couldn't put the villain on a straight bc there's no way he sees the flop w/ 87 or 32. He could have a set obviously as he'd probably call a PFR w/ 66-44 and definitely w/ AA. But I also don't necessarily see him shoving his set into a 4 person multiway w/ such a dripping wet flop (...or do I?).

    The A on the turn either made a set of aces which has me crushed. If it made a pair we're either chopping or I have his AQ, AJ, or maybe ATs beat, even if it includes one a spade. I don't see a nit seeing the flop w/ a weaker ace than that so I'm not too worried about something like A4 making two pair.

    Which leaves the flush he might have made on the flop. Combos here I think include KQ, KJ, QJ, and KT spades.

    So that's the range putting him on: four possible sets + the flush combos above. In PStove that comes out to ~48%, basically a coin flip. Am I way off here?
    OK some problem with your ranges. Read again the "put your opponent on a goddamn range" post. You have to do it street by street for the final range to make sense. FOr example, do you not think he would 3b AA preflop? In that case he cannot have AA on the turn. Do you think he would raise the flop with AQ? If he wouldn't then he can't have AQ on the turn. Why do you think his only flush combos are KsTs-KsQs?
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  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    OK some problem with your ranges. Read again the "put your opponent on a goddamn range" post. You have to do it street by street for the final range to make sense. FOr example, do you not think he would 3b AA preflop? In that case he cannot have AA on the turn. Do you think he would raise the flop with AQ? If he wouldn't then he can't have AQ on the turn. Why do you think his only flush combos are KsTs-KsQs?
    I see what you're saying. Thanks for your advise, daviddem. Still learning how to work out ranges. It's slowly making more sense to me.

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