TPTK vs passive nit - 25NL

[NightGizmo]

Villain is 6/5 over 108 hands, has yet to bet or raise post flop, and seems to fold against any aggression. He has only been 3bet once and he folded. Only other info -- the button is a 30/9 over 33 and seems like a passive/station, the blinds are pretty tight and straightforward. I've been card-dead so far at the table so I'm only running 8/7, so there's no reason for the villain to think I'm an idiot.

My questions are:
1) Is it wrong to flat preflop here, or should I have 3bet? My plan was to steal on the flop if I missed and UTG showed no interest in the pot. If the button came along then I would hope to hit a hand and get paid.
2) TPTK on the flop, but the villain decides to wake up and start betting. Is it wrong to call this small-ish bet hoping that the villain shuts down on the turn and river?
3) As played, turn is a super-simple fold, right?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($34.77)
SB ($13.34)
BB ($28.56)
UTG ($25)
MP1 ($25.70)
MP2 ($8.75)
Hero (CO) ($26.04)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
UTG bets $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) A, 3, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.85) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.25, Hero ???

[Donachello]

1) no
2) no
3) no

seriously wtf? put him on a range and count the combos.

[Razvan729]

i would have reraised to 3 $ preflop that for one,,,

flop i would have played same as you

turn i call... from your read he aint the type of opening KQdd from UTG, so he is AQ+, JJ+

there is also the possibility that he hit a set on turn or flop, but from your reads slight chanc he would open UTG with small pp

[NightGizmo]

seriously wtf? put him on a range and count the combos.

Yeah, you're right. AQ is definitely in his range, so even if he has KdQd on the turn (which I doubt, since he doesn't seem the type to bet flush draws on the flop) I'm slightly behind AxKd (2 combos) and drawing dead to AA (1 combo).

i would have reraised to 3 $ preflop that for one,,,

Why? What are your reasons for raising? What is your plan if he calls or 4bets?

[daven]

is it better to flat AA or AKs preflop vs this type of player?
3b pre, i hate the flat vs this player.

raise flop as played
min raise turn as played

[Razvan729]

why not reraise preflop AKs? what am i suposed to reraise? just AA? i reraise preflop QQ+ and AKs and these are hands to get it all in.... if he 4 bets me or shoves with AKs i call anytime if its just us two.

that is why i reraise AKs and if he reraises i go all in, for AA, KK i have blockers and for QQ i have 2 overs, of course you can lose, but god damn if these 4 arent hands for 4bet and shove then what should we play?

[Hoopy]

is it better to flat AA or AKs preflop vs this type of player?
3b pre, i hate the flat vs this player.

raise flop as played
min raise turn as played

Assuming he plays fairly tight to 3bets.

Flatting pre is fine with AKs and AA in this spot. 3betting AA obv ok, AKs seems slightly bad.

@NightGizmo

Work out his opening range pre, his flop cbetting range based on your reads then count combo's of hands.

[daven]

Assuming he plays fairly tight to 3bets.

Flatting pre is fine with AKs and AA in this spot. 3betting AA obv ok, AKs seems slightly bad.

ok, so he obviously plays nit to 3bets cos he's 8-6 and we're repping 9-7 or something. Again, why is it worse to 3b AKs than AA? i'm lost.

why not reraise preflop AKs? what am i suposed to reraise? just AA? i reraise preflop QQ+ and AKs and these are hands to get it all in.... if he 4 bets me or shoves with AKs i call anytime if its just us two.

that is why i reraise AKs and if he reraises i go all in, for AA, KK i have blockers and for QQ i have 2 overs, of course you can lose, but god damn if these 4 arent hands for 4bet and shove then what should we play?

situations vary. 5b-shoving AKs vs a 6-3 is spew, etc.

[spoonitnow]

I think calling AKs and 3-bet/folding AKo pre-flop is probably fine, considering the button is going to come along fairly often.

I'd probably 3-bet AA, but if I was on the button and the button was in the SB instead, I'd be more likely to consider calling.

[NightGizmo]

ok, so he obviously plays nit to 3bets cos he's 8-6 and we're repping 9-7 or something. Again, why is it worse to 3b AKs than AA? i'm lost.

OK, tell me if I'm wrong here: villain's PFR range is something like { 88+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ }. If we 3bet, he'll 4bet with KK-AA and call with TT-QQ,AKo,AKs.

Total PFR combos: 60 (AK) 57(AA)
Calling combos: 27 (AK) 26 (AA)
4bet combos: 6 (AK) 4 (AA)
Folding combos: 27 (AK) 27 (AA)

So if we 3bet he's going to fold the bottom half of his range. For AA, that's fine because our hand is strong against his calling or 4betting range. For AK, we just folded out the hands that we want value from -- against this villain, mainly AQ. We'll be lucky to get one street of value out of him if we hit an A or K.

[NightGizmo]

raise flop as played
min raise turn as played

Maybe that's a leak in my game -- against weak-tight nits, I tend to be cautious with TPTK. I feel like they are looking for reasons to fold, so if I raise they will fold the hands I beat and call with hands that beat me. He's already betting -- shouldn't I keep his range wide by just calling?

[Razvan729]

on that board with his range 33,77, 1010+, AQs+,AQo+ you have 65% equity so its a raise on the turn.

[couriermike]

Maybe that's a leak in my game -- against weak-tight nits, I tend to be cautious with TPTK. I feel like they are looking for reasons to fold, so if I raise they will fold the hands I beat and call with hands that beat me. He's already betting -- shouldn't I keep his range wide by just calling?

You have to charge his draws when you have a good made hand. If the flop was rainbow, calling would be better than on this flop, but you'd still be missing a street of value.

He's super tight, but he can have worse hands that will pay off, namely AQ, maybe AJ, KQdd.

So I like raising the flop.

I'd also 3-bet preflop and be willing to get it in. I understand what people are saying about range manipulation, but it's also true that AK has alot of equity pre and often very little otf. Taking it down pre is a good result. Flatting AA against this super strong range for deception would be better because we're still good on almost all flops, but 3-betting is good too of course.

Edit:
question 3
I would just call the turn and try to get to showdown cheap. Can't give him credit for a flush yet.

[couriermike]

I change my mind about getting it in pre. He's super tight, we'd be at the bottom of his pfai range at best. So, what DC said, call and play a hand ip that's doing very well against his utg opening range. Which is what you did of course.

[PokerWiz]

I would 3bet pre. That's suited AK man that's not behind a lot of hands. On the flop I would also raise. So my line here is raise PF, raise flop, raise turn.