*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[OngBonga]

The numbers that western press came out with are completely fantastical.

Tens of thousands? I didn't even say that. For clarity, I'm going with the more conservative 7000 that the more anti-West rags have been using. But I'll concede that I haven't counted. The Iranian regime certainly don't fuck about, however many they killed.

The civilian cost of the war for Iran so far is reported at between 500 and 1500. However you want to massage the numbers, you're going to have to get creative to argue that the Israelis and Americans are killing more Iranians than the Iranians did.

I don't think people are pro-Iran so much as they enjoy the US/Israel coalition getting their asses kicked.

I'm not quite sure how this works. USA have lost six people so far, last I checked. Iran have lost six Supreme Leaders (very slight exaggeration). Israel's human cost is reported as high as 23. Iran has lost countless members of the regime, and has no air defence, air force, and navy left. The idea that USA and Israel are getting their asses kicked makes no sense to me. It's just nonsense that USA-haters are saying to themselves to cope.

They might be getting their asses kicked politically but that won't impact the war effort unless it drags on until the next election.

If you stand there and punch me over and over again while I cry, I'm not winning the fight if everyone just stands there watching, cheering me on. That's not how winning fights works.

If there was was a sophisticated plan around Iran, it definitely didn't involve dragging this war out for months, so whatever plan they had, it already blew up in their face long ago.

I don't know how anyone with the slightest amount of intelligence could enter a war with Iran and think it would be over in under a month with all objectives met. Maybe Trump is this stupid. Netanyahu is most definitely not.

Maybe America doesn't have a coherent plan beyond "do what Bibi wants" but Israel does. Hating them makes no difference. They have been planning this for a very, very long time, and in their assessment, now is the time to strike. Israel will certainly have anticipated a proper fight, even if Trump thought he could bomb them into the stone age in a week.

[OngBonga]

The most plausible explanation I've heard is that Netanyahu basically told him Israel is attacking Iran in the morning, and if you don't join us, you're a pu55y. Or smth.

I'm inclined to tentatively agree with this, though not so much on the timing. Obviously not directly challenging Trump by calling him a pussy, but I do believe this is Israel's call, they were going to assassinate the Supreme Leader with or without American support, and Trump correctly decided that USA was going to get dragged into the ensuing war regardless. Netanyahu certainly would have played it in such a way that Trump would feel like a pussy if he didn't get stuck in. You're going to work his ego.

Thing is with the timing, USA had already made it clear, months ago, that they were willing to attack Iran directly. And Israel had already cleared an air corridor through Syria to prepare for the attack. So I don't believe the decision was made "the night before". I'd say it's much more likely that Trump had long ago given Netanyahu stone cold assurances that America would support Israeli military aggression.

I think it's already over.

I don't. China hasn't made a move on Taiwan yet. That's the litmus test for me.

American hegemony doesn't have to be moral to succeed. Kidnapping a world leader and trying him in a domestic court reinforces their hegemony, rather than harms it.

[Poopadoop]

If you define "winning" as meaning killing more of the enemy than they do of you, then America also won in Iraq, Afganistan, and Vietnam. Yet no-one now argues those campaigns were good for America.

And Iran is going to be just like North Vietnam in the sense that they'll never surrender. They've hated America since Mossadegh, bombing them mercilessly isn't going to soften their attitude. So what are you going to do, kill all 90 million of them, destroy a 2000 year old culture, just so that Iran ceases to exist?

What is the actual objective of this war anyways? It seemed to change three times a day for awhile but now they don't even talk about it any more. Regime change didn't happen. De-nuclearisation is invalid since they didn't have a nuclear capacity anyways. Weakening Iran? Ok, fine, objective achieved, you can go home now.

I have to also laugh at the idea of 10,000 US marines invading a country that just mobilised a million soldiers. The hubris they must have to think that's going to scare Iran into peace talks.

The fact is, Iran can drag this out as long as they want. Amerisrael can't make them give up by bombing alone, and a serious ground invasion would be too costly.

[OngBonga]

"They've hated America since Mossadegh"

This is where you assume the regime speaks for the people. 90 million Iranians do not hate USA. Most Iranians hate the regime.

But you're right to question if the objectives can be met. The problem is, we don't know the objectives, and we're not going to find out by watching the news or asking Grok. They'll only tell you what the governments want you to know. The true objectives won't be public knowledge.

I just assume that Mossad are not going to blunder a 50-year chess game in under a month. I presume this is going to plan, from their point of view.

[Poopadoop]

"They've hated America since Mossadegh"

This is where you assume the regime speaks for the people. 90 million Iranians do not hate USA. Most Iranians hate the regime.

Meh, I'm pretty sure America has been extremely unpopular among the people of Iran for decades now. It's not like they have to choose between hating either the Ayatollahs and America; they can hate both of them.

[Poopadoop]

"
I just assume that Mossad are not going to blunder a 50-year chess game in under a month. I presume this is going to plan, from their point of view.

I can't see what Mossad is possibly going to do - arrange a coup? If they could do that, they would have already. And if that was their plan, what is all the bombing for?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think the "winning" Iran is doing is in driving up oil prices by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as their regime has survivors, and the economy of that regime is still funneling money to the regime's key pillars of support, they can't really "lose."

[OngBonga]

"I think the "winning" Iran is doing is in driving up oil prices by controlling the Strait of Hormuz."

This isn't "winning". Iran doesn't benefit from this. They're essentially being forced to play cards they don't want to play.

There's an idiom in chess, I think it's an old quote that stood the test of time... "the threat is more powerful than the execution"... it describes a position where holding the tension is more favourable than actually executing the attack. This concept applies here... the threat of closing the Strait gives more geopolitical leverage than actually closing it.

This war has forced Iran into executing a counterattack that they weren't prepared for.

It's temporary. Iran cannot close the straight indefinitely. There's too much at stake. They have to balance Chinese interests, and that's easier said than done. USA are more capable than Iran are of closing the Strait, so it's not a given that Chinese vessels can keep passing.

For Iran to "win", American bases in the region must be forced to close. That's a strategic victory for Iran and would be very bad for Israel. It means the emergence of Iran as a global superpower. That won't happen.

If regime change is considered an essential objective, and the regime survives, they might consider that a "win", but the reality is it's a strategic stalemate at best. That could be considered a moral victory given the asymmetry of power, but Iran will be much, much worse off than before. Nobody won shit, there's just a bunch of losers. If this happens, and it's quite possible, Israel and USA will likely go on a PR mission to present it as a victory, saying Iran can't build nukes for decades etc, while considering their next move, which is probably to arm and fund opposition in an attempt to grind down the regime over a decade.

Best outcome seems to be the collapse of the Iranian regime through air power alone. I think if that was going to happen, it would have done by now. Next best outcome is that the Iranian people rise up when the bombs stop falling, and successfully take control. I think this is possible, but it will be bloody.

American-armed Kurds fighting the regime is where I think this is heading. That probably solves one problem while creating ten more.

[oskar]

I'm thinking palm trees and warm beaches, myself.

I recently met an Israeli retiree in who apparently made himself permanent resident in a very nice lodge near Nech Sar National Park in Ethiopia. He alternated between listening to Goa music in his hut and arguing with the manager. He woke up screaming a couple of times throughout the night. As far as retirement goes, I give it a 6/10. I prefer big cities myself. I love London, but GB is a side-grade politically. I'm curious about Johannesburg but I've never been.

If you stand there and punch me over and over again while I cry, I'm not winning the fight if everyone just stands there watching, cheering me on. That's not how winning fights works.

Thanks for the visual, but where I was going is that you can't keep this war going and win elections.

I don't know how anyone with the slightest amount of intelligence could enter a war with Iran and think it would be over in under a month with all objectives met.

Once they can figure out what the objectives are, we can find out whether they've been successful or not. I would say that probably, since the US is lifting sanctions on Iranian oil while being at war with Iran, that might be an indicator that things are not going quite as planned.

[Poopadoop]

I recently met an Israeli retiree in who apparently made himself permanent resident in a very nice lodge near Nech Sar National Park in Ethiopia. He alternated between listening to Goa music in his hut and arguing with the manager. He woke up screaming a couple of times throughout the night. As far as retirement goes, I give it a 6/10. I prefer big cities myself. I love London, but GB is a side-grade politically. I'm curious about Johannesburg but I've never been.

I would think Vienna is a pretty nice place to live, no?

Am aiming for Spain myself. I like being outdoors, so good weather is a big plus. I'm also attracted to the idea of living in a properly socialist country, and the people. Also doesn't hurt that once I sell my house in the UK, I can afford two bigger houses in Spain. Summers in Asturias and the rest of the year in Andalucia sounds good to me.

Thanks for the visual, but where I was going is that you can't keep this war going and win elections.

I agree. The bigger question is whether Tump will find some excuse to cancel the elections for 'national security' reasons.

Once they can figure out what the objectives are, we can find out whether they've been successful or not. I would say that probably, since the US is lifting sanctions on Iranian oil while being at war with Iran, that might be an indicator that things are not going quite as planned.

I still think the most likely outcome is Trump declares "total victory, the most bigly victory the world has ever seen," packs up his toys and goes home. Am honestly a bit surprised it hasn't happened yet.

[OngBonga]

Thanks for the visual, but where I was going is that you can't keep this war going and win elections.

We've already seen a batshit crazy orange man win two elections in USA, either side of a human vegetable. I don't think you can predict American voting intentions based on global affairs. Elections get decided in USA by some stupid shit in Florida.

Trump won because there are a LOT of Cubans in Florida who oppose the Cuban government. Cuban national politics plays more of a role in deciding recent elections than American foreign policy elsewhere.

So yeah, good luck predicting the voting intention of the American public. Rarely does it even matter. Just ask Florida.

[Poopadoop]

Iran defo winning the legoganda war.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Vienna is a great city. I visited recently and it landed pretty high on my list of potential European cities to live in based on vibe (not taking cost of living into account). Typical easy transportation of continental Europe. Great museums and galleries. Outstanding food, especially the local cakes. Pretty clean as far as cities go, too.

Vienna, Prague, and Venice were all easy to explore, had lots to do, were lovely cities.

Prague is actually remarkably affordable if you can figure out where the non-tourist places are. Like, myself and 2 friends got a dinner with a full rack of ribs, 2 salads, 2 soups, another entree, and beers all for ~$25 USD each. But we only found it because one of the friends was someone we met on the train who knew of this place.
I've heard that's actually the norm, but the tourist traps just know they can charge 3x the price for the same stuff and get away with it.
Prague survived the affordability check and is on my list of places I'm considering. If only it had warm beaches. Or a nearby volcano that's close enough to be fascinated by, but not close enough to be threatened by. I've added that to my list of desirable qualities in a city.


Venice is truly a marvelous city. The utter lack of car traffic is such a blessing as a tourist exploring the city. The busses are actually boats, and since they all stop on the same side of the canal, regardless of which direction they're heading, figuring out exactly which station to wait in for your bus going in your direction can be confusing AF. Luckily, a mistake is readily solved by getting off at the next stop and then finding the adjacent station with the same letter. The food in Venice is the best I've had in my life. Every restaurant, every dish, it was all superb. Granted, I wasn't pinching pennies on meals, but I wasn't looking for pricey places, either. Just picked what sounded good in the moment and didn't care about price (nothing was crazy expensive, but spending $30 - $50 a meal each was the norm).

[Poopadoop]

It looks like Rommel McDonald's grand lack of strategy for the war in Iran isn't quite going as hoped. Now that the swearing at them on social media hasn't worked, and pushing back the deadline for the all-out attack for the sixth time hasn't paid off, he's got a choice between war-crime bombing Iranian infrastructure and having them do the same to the Gulf States, or...something?

Apparently, the Pentagon has wargamed the whole attack Iran thing numerous times before and concluded America couldn't win, at least not in any meaningful sense beyond how they're 'winning' now by killing lots of Iranian civilians. That might be an Israel-style win but not sure what it does for America besides cost them billions of dollars.

Another way they could "win" is by drafting a million soldiers and doing a ground invasion. When they wargamed it though, everyone thought it was a really stupid idea, which means Trump will probably do it.

How much is gas where u guys are? Here it's at about £1.80/litre or about US$9.50 a gallon.

On the up side, by holding energy stocks and oil futures, I may be able to somewhat mitigate the effects of the rampant inflation we're about to experience. I should also save money on driving when the pumps dry up!

[oskar]

Diesel is currently capped at €2,2/l Gas is at €1,8.
Pretty sure if you buy oil futures, you have to buy the actual oil... so I hope you made space.

I've only been to Venice twice, and I only went to McDonalds and cafe's. I would go to more restaurants if I could order directly and pick my food up at the counter. I don't enjoy the dining experience. I drove there once, I took the train once - both suck. It seems vain to fly, but I just checked and it's €80 for the round trip if I booked this weekend, so... not sure how that is remotely possible with the current situation, but that's what it is.

We've already seen a batshit crazy orange man win two elections in USA, either side of a human vegetable.

Fair enough. I just think it's probably getting a bit too real, even for the hardcore superfans out there right about now. He just posted "a whole civilization will die tonight" [sic]
One can't really feel good about that no matter how retarded they are. If they're smart enough to read, they know that's not good. I'm sure his team is scrambling to find an off-ramp: declare some sort of health issue, put in JD and bring this ship home, because this is not going well.

[Poopadoop]

Pretty sure if you buy oil futures, you have to buy the actual oil... so I hope you made space.

I say 'futures' because I don't know the actual word for what I bought. It's Wisdom Tree Brent Crude Oil on Trading 212. They haven't asked me where I want the oil delivered to so I assume it's not a real future, but it tracks the price of oil fairly closely.

Bought it at £49/share when WWIII started beginning of March, now it's at £65. It's fun watching how it goes up every time Trump threatens Iran with total annihilation, and down when he says peace talks are going well -then up again when Iran says there are no peace talks.

Invested in a bunch of energy companies too. They've all gone up between 10-20% in the last month or so.

Oil is at $110/bbl now. Can't see how it does anything but keep going up further until this is over.

[Poopadoop]

I'm sure his team is scrambling to find an off-ramp: declare some sort of health issue, put in JD and bring this ship home, because this is not going well.

AFAICT the only thing his team ever scrambles to do is kiss his fat orange ass. I doubt anyone in the current admin has the fortitude to stand up to him. Maybe in Trump 1, but now?

That said, he must be getting dozens of phone calls a day from all over the world begging him not to escalate things. Whether he'll listen or not, well we'll see.

[Poopadoop]

Ok, I assumed the TACO was coming, but Trump saying they're working on a peace plan based off of Iran's list of 10 demands...wtaf.

Good news is people will stop getting bombed for a while. Bad news is Trump is still president and who knows what other stupid shit he's going to get up to in the next two years. Wouldn't be completely surprised if this whole Iran adventure starts up again.

[Poopadoop]

Ouch.

[oskar]

So one of two things is happening. They're either overplaying their hand with fake assassination attempts, or commies should start hitting the gun range. Either way: it's getting embarrassing. I'm just not sure for whom.

[OngBonga]

It's probably a warning from the Jews to keep fighting the war against Iran. I reckon the first one was a warning to him, I mean who gets that close without killing him? Someone well fucking trained.

My conspiracy radar pings hard on this one, but I don't think he's faking it. I think this is how Mossad control Trump.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Apparently, the suspect booked a 3 night stay in that hotel months ago - within days of Trump's announcement that he'd attend this dinner.

It's hard to get exact details, but it seems he got as close as any other hotel guest could have gotten minus the few feet it took to subdue him. I read this all went down at the outer perimeter of multiple rings of security around the president. It didn't happen on the same floor of the hotel the president was on. He wasn't all that close to the president. Certainly not within line of sight.

The guy apparently didn't have any criminal history or evident security risks about him. IDK. Maybe more info will come out over time.
IDK to what extent the guests at the hotel were screened at all.

[Poopadoop]

Dunno, not seeing it with this one. The claims that people around Trump acting weird is evidence of a false flag seem to forget the fact that those people always act weird. It was fun watching Trump faceplant when they tried to drag his fat ass off the scene though.

It's also hard to imagine this guy was convinced to spend the rest of his life in prison, if not getting shot by the secret service, just so Trump could make a pitch for his new ballroom/Fuhrerbunker. He's already convinced me hes' going to build it whether people like it or not.