QJo BB v BU

[mondayscool]

Things have been pretty quiet around here the past few days so I'll post a few hands I feel I played poorly and/or have questions about.


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

BTN: $54.35 (217.4 bb)
SB: $25.62 (102.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $12.18 (48.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.10) 4 3 7 (2 players)
Hero ??


Villain is 19/17 2/3 fold to 3b 38% steal total 3/5 steal from BU 1/2 fold to cb 83 hands
He probably sees me as something like 22/18 9ish% 3bet


First I'd like to address my 3bet pre and hear people's thoughts on how misguided I am. Since I'm OOP I like 3betting a more linear range as we have blockers to a lot of hands so I'd probably 3bet bluff like A2s-A8s, KTo-KQo, QJo, JTo. Suited broadways I think I'm more likely to just call, as well as A9s-AJs, 88-TT, as these hands should dominate his button range pretty hard and have a good deal of showdown value.


Second I'd like to address cbetting this flop. Unsure what my range should look like for cbetting this flop. Obviously all my value hands like JJ+.
According to my hopefully accurate calculations I need 42% fold equity to bet this flop $4.50 as a bluff in a vaccuum. I don't think I have it, and therefore I don't like my bet, but here's why. I think vs. me specifically villain's range will be significantly wider and will look something like 77+ atleast, some suited connectors, suited broadways, some suited aces.
77+ calls for sure, a lot of the suited connectors have flopped some sort of pair and straight draw, some of the suited aces have paired and will likely call, and I can really only hope to get folds from his suited broadways and suited aces that missed, though things get a lot more complicated for us if we think he's going to call this relatively dry board with any kind of a high or BDFD, which is more likely with this villain than most others.

Thoughts?

I'll post the rest of the hand later, I'd like feedback on the subsequent streets as well but that will come.

[rpm]

pre is most likely +EV but i can think of far better hands to do it with. might need to be cautious of people at these stakes starting to try to fuck with you if you're 3betting them a lot.

i'd tend to auto CB this flop but i'm not sure that's a good play, especially if you suspect villain has any reason to float/bluff-raise your CB thinking your range is pretty weak, which many regs probably will in this spot

[griffey24]

Is his fold to 3b 38%? That's pretty low.

That means he's likely calling KQ/KJ/AJ type stuff always, which means you'll get dominated a fair bit.

I'd rather flat this pre.

[rpm]

i think it means fold to 3b is 2/3, but i read it that way first too

[mondayscool]

Sorry for the confusion, edited the OP for clarity on villain

[daviddem]

I also like to flat pre. You're doing good vs a 38% steal range, I think your hand is too strong for a 3b bluff and too weak for a value 3b.

The flop completely misses your range so I don't mind c/f flop, which you can balance by sometimes check calling or check raising KK+ on this type of very dry boards.

I guess a cbet repping 88+ is also not so bad but I prefer to cbet bluff either on better boards or with at least 7-8 outs.

[rpm]

wow i thought this one was definitely weak enough to be in the "3b or fold" category preflop. you guys happy to flat pretty much any two broadways then from the blinds vs a regs steal? barring the ones we wanna 3b for value?

[daviddem]

Depends how much the reg is stealing. 38% is high enough to call with QJo imo. When you 3b you fold most of his worse hands and he continues with a range that crushes you.

[postiga]

I prefer fold this spot pre. As played cbet about 3,5 and fold to a raise

[rpm]

Depends how much the reg is stealing. 38% is high enough to call with QJo imo. When you 3b you fold most of his worse hands and he continues with a range that crushes you.

fair enough. i was actually thinking 38% is a pretty low steal % (just re-read the OP and realised it's only been 5 opportunites, meh). i'd definitely be happy to flat QJs but QJo feels like we just rely on flopping a pair or otherwise C/Fing too much. plus i feel our high card potential is somewhat sketchy because we will flop middle pair/dominated top pairs some of the times we actually do connect. i concede this all could just be a long-winded way of me saying i suck postflop

[surviva316]

Eh, villain is pretty tight; I don't mind playing pretty linearly against him. If villain were the 50%+ steal, 75% open button type player, then our hand would obviously be way to strong to turn into a bluff.

All that said, QJo is a tough hand to play OOP as a 3b'or against a decently strong range. If we're going to be 3b'ing with it, it is as a pure bluff, knowing that we have some equity against his middle pairs and some fold equity against his hands that dominate us (assuming that he folds a lot postflop). This isn't a hand we're going to be scooping big pots with very often.

Anyway, just thinking outloud more than anything else. As played, we're very near the bottom of our range, and this isn't exactly a flop we need to be cbetting 100% of the time. I'm fine with c/f'ing here. Who knows, maybe that contradicts what I just said about having fold equity against strong broadway hands, but surely boards get better than this?

I don't know, I feel like I'm uncertain about everything I've said in this post, lol.