QQ in bb 25nl FR

[caddie444]

Ok well the UTG limper is 29/8 over 86, and I noticed that he slowplayed a set against me IP by calling a large 3-bet on 10-4-7 after I raised another players donk.

I've noticed that he's raised his good hands preflop from EP, so I'll give him the following preflop range:

99-22,AJs-A2s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-ATo,KJo+,QJo,JTo


He'd def open or at least limp/raise 10-10+

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($26)
MP3 ($24.30)
CO ($26.65)
Button ($34.20)
SB ($48.45)
Hero (BB) ($54.10)
UTG ($30.45)
UTG+1 ($6.45)
MP1 ($22.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.25, UTG calls $1, CO calls $1

First off, I don't think I raised enough here, I think I should go with at least 6x due to the fact that I'll be OOP and if UTG calls and CO wil be getting decent odds with his hand

Flop: ($3.85) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2, 1 fold

I chose to bet smallish here b/c I want UTG's pairs 33+ to stick around since that's the only thing that I see hanging around that I beat since I expect him to just call with all the jacks in his range. I also didn't want to check because I don't want all his Ax's and Kx's to catch up for free. Thought process alright?

The range I give him after he calls should look something like this:

99-22,AJs,A2s,KJs,QJs,JTs,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo

I have ~57% equity vs this range

Turn: ($7.85) (2 players)
Hero ???

Now I'm struggling for a plan on the turn. The 4 doesn't change my equity much. I think I'm leaning toward a 1/2 pot bet/fold because I can still see his pairs hanging around along with his A2 of spades and expect him to announce he has a J if he does have one. I don't really expect him to raise his other pairs but I don't know he might. The other problem is he might just flat his 22 and 44 and then I won't be sure what to do on the river.

So:
1) Preflop range ok?
2) Flop bet size and thought process ok?
3) Turn range accurate and plan good?

[spoonitnow]

In your notes you said that UTG slowplayed by calling a large 3-bet on a T74 board, but that's not exactly slowplaying if there was a bet, a raise, and a 3-bet then he called with that much money going in on the flop. Also it would be worth noting what the rest of the flop texture is like, ie: if it's rainbow, two-tone, or monotone.

I agree that your pre-flop range is reasonable for UTG. I also agree that you should have raised to 6 or 7x instead. A problem in your analysis is that you haven't put CO on a range yet.

So we have the flop and we can't really do much analysis here since we don't know anything at all about the CO. You bet half pot and get called by the wide UTG range. He's probably calling most if not all of his range here hoping for an overcall or feeling vulnerable with JT because he's a passive fuck or whatever reason he's just not raising much on the flop here.

The turn pot is about $8 with $27 behind. Assume you bet/fold the turn for $4 and he calls, then the river pot sill be $16 with $23 behind. Depending on the river card that comes, you could probably value bet another $4 or something and fold to a raise since he's so passive. Another option would be to check/fold the river since someone this passive is almost never value betting worse than Queens, but the problem there is you're probably missing out on some value and.....

Once you're heads-up, if you bet the turn say half-pot and he calls, that improves our equity against his range a decent amount because he didn't raise. This sets us up for a really obvious river value bet imo.

[caddie444]

Sry he didn't call a 3-bet, he called my raise after someone donked a monotone 10-7-4 with 44.

You're right spoon I didn't mention the CO's range. I sort of did it on purpose because my main questions were about this turn. However, I should've mentioned in my previous post that he was a 38/9 fish over 500 who chased draws relentlessly. This actually makes my decision not to raise more pre even worse I suppose. I can see him continuing with a similar range as UTG after I bet, assuming UTG doesn't call my c-bet like he did then he might get scared off of his low pp's.

As for us planning on leading the river for value after we bet/fold turn and he calls, I assume our plan is to bet/fold smallish again?

thanks spoon and p.s. ytf are we up so late? I've got to work tomorrow need the zzzz's