10nl: Marginal AK spot v wide 3bet, set w FD brd, Quad Value

[JoeHaw]

Hand 1


$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG OldSmokey888 ($11.05)
UTG+1 paulcardiff ($14.45)
MP1 Bordsvett ($5.25)
MP2 Hero ($18.85)
MP3 Hizzo222 ($15.65)
CO Zlewaq ($9.40)
BTN Zorro_wm ($10.55)
SB pinochopoker ($12.40)
BB ChipHunter24 ($11.55)

Villain is running 39/19/1.0 over 76 with 16% 3bet, has folded to cbet only 1/7 times, and has a 27% went to showdown.

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Zlewaq raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.60, Zlewaq calls $1.60

Villain is 3betting so much, I figured the 4bet was good against his wide range, but I'm not really sure his 4bet calling range, and AK is probably going to play really well against his 3bet range if an A hits, so there's an argument for flatting, but then again I'm out of position. If I'm 4betting do I want him to fold? Unless I think he's continuing with AQ and maybe AJ?

I think the sizing is pretty good for making him want to continue with AQ AJ.

Flop: ($5.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, Zlewaq bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

I'm really confused as to his range at this point. Obviously he's 3betting really wide, but he's never really met resistance, and I don't know how wide he's continuing- which makes me think I should've flatted pre. At the same time, he 2.5x 3bet and I 2.6x 4bet, so stuff like KQs and AQ might be possible, I just don't know quite how fishy he is- is 39/19 over 76 enough to suggest he can't lay down his 3bet to a 4bet?

Anyways, I think he called with TT+ no matter what, maybe even lower pps. I'm hoping he called with KQs AQ AJs etc., but I don't think leading is the best way to get value out of those, I think the size of the pot is going to make him want to bluff with those, so I check to him, however I really think I needed to plan the rest of the hand right then and there.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44,550 games 0.028 secs 1,591,071 games/sec

Board: 3h 5c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.070% 42.77% 11.30% 19052 5036.00 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 45.930% 34.63% 11.30% 15426 5036.00 { QQ-TT, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

I need 35% equity if he were to ship the flop, and I think its kind of delusional to think he could check through after flop (which is apparently what I was thinking based on my turn action).

Anyways, if that range is accurate AND he's shipping his ENTIRE range, it's profitable- but is that something I can assume?

Turn: ($9.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, Zlewaq goes all-in $4.60, Hero folds

I think this is horrendous. I needed to c/f flop or call this bet. Right?

Final Pot: $14.35

Zlewaq wins $13.90 ( won +$4.50 )

Hero lost -$4.80

Good analysis? Do you c/f flop or call turn?

Hand 2

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pinochopoker ($11.05)
UTG+1 wenli777 ($8.70)
MP1 OldSmokey888 ($10.50)
MP2 frodollars ($7.45)
MP3 chrisrossek ($10)
CO Hero ($19.40)
BTN Hizzo222 ($17.20)
SB Zlewaq ($19.35)
BB Zorro_wm ($10)

Villain is 35/15/1.1 over 99 with 10.9% 3bet.

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, OldSmokey888 raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, Zlewaq calls $0.35, 1 fold

Pretty standard set mining I think.

Flop: ($1.30, 3 players)
Zlewaq bets $0.50, OldSmokey888 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, Zlewaq calls $1

I raised attempting to get value from JJ+, but I think he's probably 3betting those if he runs w a 10.9% over 100 right? Too small a sample size?

I'm going to tell you he had AhQh just because my real question about this hand is how often you think people at these stakes bet their draws- especially leading them like this. Should I be able to identify that the .50 there is probably a blocking bet to give himself the right odds to draw? I think raising is the right option here regardless.

Turn: ($4.30, 2 players)
Zlewaq bets $1.30, Hero raises to $4, Zlewaq calls $2.70

The small lead convinced me it wasn't an FD, but 9Ts or JJ TT or maybe ATs or something.
I think the raise here has got to be bad.

River: ($12.30, 2 players)
Zlewaq checks, Hero bets $6.80, Zlewaq calls $6.80
[b]

Obviously I got saved by the board pairing, I probably should've bet more.

Hand 3

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ChipHunter24 ($13)
UTG+1 Hog Wash Man ($13.25)
MP1 silva40 ($13.30)
MP2 Netter17 ($10.15)
MP3 ArtiZiff ($10.40)
CO Hero ($13.20)
BTN pabrewer ($6.05)
SB pinochopoker ($12)
BB Hizzo222 ($10)

Villain is 11/6/3.0 over 111 with a 3% cold call

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, silva40 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, pinochopoker calls $0.45, 1 fold, silva40 folds

isoing the limper late position- pretty standard for me

Flop: ($1.20, 2 players)
pinochopoker checks, Hero bets $0.80, pinochopoker calls $0.80

Easy cbet for me since most of his CC range is pps 77+ and AK AQs probably- I think he calls the flop with almost his whole range.

Turn: ($2.80, 2 players)
pinochopoker checks, Hero bets $2.50, pinochopoker folds

Wondering about my betsizing- if most of his range is 77+, and AK AQ, I think a half pot bet would've been more appropriate, I think this screams AA KK, and an 11/6 while nitty probably has some discipline.

Final Pot: $5.30

Hero wins $5.20 ( won +$1.40 )

pinochopoker lost -$1.30
silva40 lost -$0.10

[philly and the phanatics]

I need 56% equity if he were to ship the flop, and I think its kind of delusional to think he could check through after flop (which is apparently what I was thinking based on my turn action).

Anyways, if that range is accurate AND he's shipping his ENTIRE range, it's still a bit -ev, right? so c/f flop? And 4bet more pre?

he started with 9.40 pre, spent 2.6 with your guys preflop play, leaving him with 6.80...and the pot on the flop is already 5.35....so you only need like 35% equity if he is shipping the flop....your equity needed never has to be over 50%...if it ever is over 50% its EV+, think about pot odds and this should make sense, because its your stack matching his plus the pot...so your odds are always better than 1:1.


and its interesting to note that you stoved it from the flop, but then when he actually shipped it on the turn you didnt stove it :-/.....

hand 1: bet flop, that's what you would do with aces, right? Doesn't need to be big, I think 1.5 does the job
hand 2: I'd raise to pot on the flop, flat turn, raise river
hand 3: I usually just limp behind because stacking donks in limped pots is lulz
as played I bet half pot on the flop, 60% pot on the turn

[JoeHaw]

he started with 9.40 pre, spent 2.6 with your guys preflop play, leaving him with 6.80...and the pot on the flop is already 5.35....so you only need like 35% equity if he is shipping the flop....your equity needed never has to be over 50%...if it ever is over 50% its EV+, think about pot odds and this should make sense, because its your stack matching his plus the pot...so your odds are always better than 1:1.


and its interesting to note that you stoved it from the flop, but then when he actually shipped it on the turn you didnt stove it :-/.....

fixed it thanks. I didn't stove it on the turn because I already knew the odds were really good- and I think he's probably shipping all of his flop range on the turn. (Disagree?).

iopq- isn't the one out of seven fold to cbet a bit concerning? I think he's calling w TT+, which we'll say is 21 combinations, maybe 22. Do you think there's easily more non paired combos in his range than that?

I agree now hand 2

Hand 3 why half pot on flop to a guy with such a low CC? Isn't he continuing with a lot of his range no matter what on this flop?

if you're calling 2.20 anyway might as well put that money in yourself and have that 1/7 chance that he'll fold
if you check/call he has 0% chance of fold

and I would probably check/fold if I'm not betting

[surviva316]

didn't read the other responses, but mine are prolly better anyway

hand 1: c/c is OMG bad. if you don't mind investing 2.20 on the flop, then just bet it yourself. anyway, the flop is a bet anyway because unless villain is capable of floating, then you fold out about half his range (whether he's playing QQ+, AK or 99+, AQ+, then half of his range missed, + he's slightly more likely to 4b KK+ in both cases and prolly playing KQ some of the time, so it's actually more than 1/2 his range).

so b/f>>c/f>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>c/c

hand2: raise more on the flop. 1.90 at least. the flop's too wet to fool around with, and you have to remember that the pot is 1.80 and he has to call .50 less than whatever your bet is, so you're bet is essentially only .80 into 1.80.

his donk into you on the turn is really unfortunate because it's too small to get sufficient value out of your spot, but raising manipulates his range in a fashion that puts you in a bad spot (plus getting 3b isn't awesome). i think i'd prolly flat and bet any non-heart river.

river bet sizing is way too small. he's calling any sized bet with pretty much the same range (JJ+, flushes, Tx), so just maximize value by betting like 9.90.

hand 3: this is a really good spot to think about ranges with the nuts. flop cbet is good because he likes this board wtih his whole range (33 setted and everything else is an overpair). i think the turn is a check. maybe we can get away with a liek <1/2 PSB, but i think he folds too much for it to be worth it (if he's a fish, then this is a snap bet because he's like OMG DOUBLE PAIRED BOARD MY A-high IS GOOOOOOOT). but yeah, if you're gonna be turn, then def do it smaller 'cause nits hate to call with 66 on this board.