TT on the bubble, against UTG shove ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 16/15 up to this point. All three opps seemed to be reasonably solid 1-table SNG players. I ran this through Wiz and it is a break even call if opp is shoving at least 11% of hands (44+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs). Call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t4410)
Hero (BB) (t2630)
UTG (t3083)
Button (t3377)

Hero's M: 6.58

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
UTG bets t3000, 2 folds, Hero ????

[Extremophile]

-The problem with the fold is that if we fold this and SB next hand, we will have small enough stack for the chip leader to call us.

-Good news is the CL is on our right.

-If we steal 2 times we will be 2nd in chips.

This is a sick fold.

[rong]

So the question is, would villain shove 33, A9 or A7s from UTG? And if the answer is yes, you should shove.

I guess only you can answer that one, but I'd call this every time. I think weeker aces are def in villains range in the majority of games I play upto the $20 level on Titan, and players definitely push wider than this at low stakes on stars, not sure yet about higher than $5 on stars.

[kevster]

K, so I've had a few and haven't played standard SNGs for like forever but this looks like a fold to me.

1. Your opponents are not mentalists.
2. He's shoving UTG.
3. You are not completely desperate.

I like to call with a decent-to-strong hand when desperate but not here.

Disclaimer: I could be miles off because DONs have warped my brain.

[Da GOAT]

gotta be a call right, a solid player should be shoving a huge range here right since all 3 others will be super nitty.

[Nakamura]

Am I right in assuming you haven't noticed your opponent opening up his range? If not, I tend to give my opponent the benefit of the doubt and fold here.

[taipan168]

Am I right in assuming you haven't noticed your opponent opening up his range? If not, I tend to give my opponent the benefit of the doubt and fold here.

You're right, I hadn't noticed anything to say that he had opened up his range.

[Nakamura]

Here is a similar hand from yesterday. Opp is 15/11 up to now, but opening up his range. The key differences are the blinds are much higher (all those lovely dead chips) and there is a shortie at the table. I haven't run the ICM yet, but it seems close if opp is pushing wide range. Maybe I had ICM brain failure though....

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t2970)
BB (t1630)
UTG (t2800)
Button (t6100)

Hero's M: 3.30

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
1 fold, Button bets t6100 (All-In), Hero calls t2670 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: (t6540) A, 6, 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t6540) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t6540) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t6540

[taipan168]

Tough spot. Assuming that BB calls pretty tight (say 8% or 66+, AJo+, ATs+) then Button needs to be shoving at least 55-60% of hands to make this a good call. If you get the sense that the Button is throwing his weight around as the big stack, I would snap call - if he hasn't been bullying then this may well be a difficult fold.