3+R 99 BB

[geno9]

no reads just moved here 2 hands ago

how should this be played?? should i just flat and shove flop or push or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 70 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t16783)
CO (t31965)
Button (t8586)
SB (t42952)
Hero (BB) (t7554)
UTG (t21298)
UTG+1 (t10903)
MP1 (t8800)
MP2 (t31329)

Hero's M: 4.94

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
3 folds, MP2 bets t1500, 1 fold, CO calls t1500, 2 folds, Hero ???

[fjuanl]

snap shove fistpump included

[revolvingiris]

Ill just add something as what fjuanl said is pretty spot on. You need reads if your going to shove. CO might some times have a bigger pocket pair and is trying to get someone else to shove over.

[revolvingiris]

Ill just add something as what fjuanl said is pretty spot on. You need reads if your going to shove. CO might some times have a bigger pocket pair and is trying to get someone else to shove over.

[geno9]

yea i forgot to mention the 2 hands i was there for CO played both hands and showed 10 5o which he called a raise and hit a 5 on flop and river and also called a raise with 73s and won it on a bluff which he showed on turn. so in only 2 hands CO was wreckless .. i had no reads on MP2

[fjuanl]

CO is very deep effective with MP1, which generally means he'll have a wide range. Also more like to 3bet big pairs because he needs to play more aggressively to get the stacks in. I would shove this hand 100% of the time, with or without reads. Its just too good of a situation

[revolvingiris]

Also more like to 3bet big pairs because he needs to play more aggressively to get the stacks in.

Bad players don't know this. They are just as likely to over shove for what they think is value.

I wasn't disagreeing with you I was just pointing out that this could be a big pair some % of the time.

[fjuanl]

Well yeah I wouldnt completely rule out big pairs, but its not so worrisome that you should ever fold 99

[dthorne04]

Ill just add something as what fjuanl said is pretty spot on. You need reads if your going to shove. CO might some times have a bigger pocket pair and is trying to get someone else to shove over.

this is ridiculously incorrect

snap shove, feel good about it. you have 99, 12 bbs, with a raise from MP and a flat call from the CO, pretty standard spot tbh

[revolvingiris]

I would ask if changing MP2 to UTG matters but apparently not...who cares as long as we have 99 with 12bb!!

I think its horrible advice to not think about either villains range before shoving here. TBH I don't think CO would snap raise JJ over MP2 100% of the time and I think TT even less if villain was a typical tagg. I wasn't advocating a fold but you don't have AA either.

But now hearing geno9's reads I would for sure shove over. I would also shove over minus that read like 99% of the time. All I was trying to do was shed light on the small % of the time you are beat pf.

[dthorne04]

and that small % of the time is honestly irrelevant here in this spot

conversely, i need very good read not to shove here.

[revolvingiris]

Agreed...I think I sent the wrong message when I said "need a read to shove". I just ment put villains on ranges before shoving.

<<<<English tard obv

[sinister1]

I'm glady getting it in here any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

fold

[geno9]

ok enough feedback to talk bout the results, i ended up pushing here with 99 .. MP2 pushed over with JJ and CO folded .. i ended up busting out here .. i had a good read that CO was weak and didnt know much about MP2 but with the blinds my stack the pot already built up and with my read on CO i thought it was the right play, MP2 happened to have a strong hand and it held .. im pretty sure this is standard and folding waiting for another hand one more orbit is probably not the right play, thoughts?

[revolvingiris]

1) Put ALL villains in the hand on ranges before pushing.
2) Make a choice and stick with it but know why you made the play you did.
3) Fuck results...MP has JJ this time AQo next time. If villain is a typical tagg, generally youll be ok putting them on a range like 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. I always use 10% as a guideline and then add or remove hands accordingly.
4) Folding here is perfectly OK if you can put one of your villains on a higher PP. Unfortunately with your stack size either pushing or folding were your only options.
5) You have 12bb which is close but still enough to fold this if needed. Dont ever shove and just give up your tourney just because you think you cant fold. 10bb is just the typical rule of thumb for being push fold. Which I am beginning to think is just so you are able to preserve your FE.

I play 180 turbos an ok amount and there are plenty of times where I go below the 10bb mark.

[fjuanl]

If MP1 is opening top 6% of hands and CO is flatting top 7% of hands, its still a +EV shove with 99. Its not a huge edge, but you should take anything you can get with 12BBs this far away from the final table

Top 6% = 88+ AJs+ AQo+

Top 7% = 88+ ATs+ AJo+

So if both villains are the nittiest players on the planet, its a very close fold

[revolvingiris]

Hand 0: 31.733% { 99 }
Hand 1: 46.421% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 21.846% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }

Only one of them needs to be a nit to make this play -EV (assuming you have 0 FE). Which is why it is so important to have some idea about the players your shoving into. Geno didnt have that oppertunity per just moved but here is what I would do if I was just moved and only faced this spot.

The more players in the pot the less equity 99 has. Against unknown players I would heavily weigh folding. There is the beyond the math stuff about doubling up now so you can take advantage of bigger +EV spots later on. However, it is still important you reach those spots vs not at all.

There is the dead 1500 in the pot if you shove and one of them folds so thats good. But we have absolutly 0 idea about either of these players. I always defult to ranges if I am readless and in this spot only one of them has to take the tagg approach for heros hand to be a dog. I would much rather shove and be behind vs call and be behind.

If hero shoves and gets called hes getting 1:1.75 or 36%. I dont know if you can just assume FE readless but as it stands. Shoving here is -EV.

[drmcboy]

Are you saying you think we get over called by CO sometimes with K2s+? That doesn't make any sense. A lot of those random hands you have in there are taking equity that they won't get if the hand plays out because those hands will have folded.

If they both take a flop you would have to add equity you may gain from one of them betting the other out.

[fjuanl]

I don't know where you got those numbers but the calculation for this hand is fairly complicated because there are multiple opponents. The post I made was from what I ran in SNGWiz.

What you should do is consider each scenario and the EV for each. Ex:

a) EV when they both fold
b) EV when MP1 calls, CO folds and you win
c) EV when MP1 calls, CO folds and you lose
c) EV when MP1 folds, CO calls and you win
d) EV when MP2 folds, CO calls and you lose
e) EV when both players call and you win
f) EV when both players call and you lose

Add a-f and then you have the answer. Its not as simple as looking at the pot odds. SngWiz does this stuff for you when you enter in calling and overcalling ranges

So lets say you know that they will both fold 20% of the time. For a), you would do this:

(% that they both fold) x (chips won)

(.20) x (12000) = +2400

[revolvingiris]

No Im not saying we will get over called by K2. I was just showing our range vs a nit and a spewtard. Also note that as CO's range tightens up 99's equity goes down.

As for the numbers I got. I just took the situation as if we were calling 1 AI and the CO folded. I also stated that I was assuming hero has 0 FE. Basically I did the math from MP2s perspective with heros stack.