KK against possible straight....

[Biglines]

No real reads against the villain, seems like he played a fairly solid game though and played the standard range of hands, ie not a total micro fish.

Should I be check calling, check folding or raising the river here? given his range I think he either has the straight or pair of jacks with a decent kicker.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($9.30)
Button ($4.59)
SB ($4.69)
BB ($8.63)
Hero (UTG) ($8.69)
MP ($13.97)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero raises to $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 10, J, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, MP calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.27) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.30, MP calls $1.30

River: ($3.87) 9 (2 players)
Hero ???

[Robb]

I'm prolly check/calling anything up to a PSB here, folding to a shove. You've gotten all the value out of this one you can by betting, imo. Time to check it down.

I'm prolly check/calling anything up to a PSB here, folding to a shove. You've gotten all the value out of this one you can by betting, imo. Time to check it down.

I actually think that c/c is the worst option here. You can't really expect him to valuebet worse, and considering that no draws missed, I don't think you will often see villain bet on the river as a bluff.

I also don't see much value in betting (other than from KJ or AJ). I think that he's got a straight or 2 pairs here WAY more often than a naked J, and I don't expect the average 5NL player to be able to fold 2 pairs here (although you might get a fold once in a while from 89 i guess).

That pretty much leaves c/f as the only option.

[Robb]

I actually think that c/c is the worst option here. You can't really expect him to valuebet worse, and considering that no draws missed, I don't think you will often see villain bet on the river as a bluff.

He's got one of three hands.

1. No value.
2. Some value.
3. Lots of value.

If he's got no value, he's not calling another bet anyway. But if so he knows his only chance to win is bluff at our check. This happens enough that there's value there.

We win the same with check/call as any other play. If he's got some value, he'll bet. We're ahead of enough his range (AJ, AT, etc) for the pot odds to dictate a call. And if he doesn't we've got showdown value.

If he's got lots of value, we're screwed. But we try to see a showdown cheap (hope maybe for half PSB on the river).

But 1 & 2 happen a lot more often here, so we pay off the monster cheap and check/call for whatever value we have. I personally think it's a good bit of value, but Hero has already committed plenty of chips. If he's ahead, he's not getting villain to call another value bet.

But 1 & 2 happen a lot more often here, so we pay off the monster cheap and check/call for whatever value we have. I personally think it's a good bit of value, but Hero has already committed plenty of chips. If he's ahead, he's not getting villain to call another value bet.

I just don't expect worse hands like AT, KT, KJ, etc. to often bet this river if we check, which means that by calling a bet on the river, we pretty much only got a bluff catcher.

And what hands could he be calling 2 PSB on a coordinated board, and then try to bluff the river ? I can't think of many. I just think that when he bets, we're behind at least 80% of the time (and I'm being conservative). I mean, there's so many combination like QJ, QT, JT, J9, J8, 97, etc. in his range that smokes us.

But maybe I'm giving too much credit to the villain. It is still 5NL...

[daven]

check-call is the only line here that makes any sense. Fold to an overbet though.

[Galapogos]

Easy c/f. There's a 4 card straight out there and lots of 2 pair type hands as well. The only thing he could have called you with here for 2 streets that didn't improve (AJ or KJ or whatever) is not going to bet this river.

[Biglines]

The problem I see with checking here is that if villain has worse, we are pretty much giving away the pot because we show that we dont have the straight.

Should we be looking at making a blocking bet to discourage bluffs? If so, what would be the right size for the bet?

[Robb]

Should we be looking at making a blocking bet to discourage bluffs? If so, what would be the right size for the bet?

All a blocking bet does is lose more when we're behind, imo. We don't want to bet any more into this board, and we're hoping to see a showdown for 1/3's or 1/2 PSB. And at 5nl there is enough junk in his range that I'm not folding unless he fires a BIG river bet (PSB or bigger).

[ATOTHEC101]

im check folding to a decent bet.

[Biglines]

Yep the only hands in his range that we beat, if he only plays decent starting hands are JK and AJ.

I just hate checking at this point because it is effectively saying that you dont have a queen. At the same time it is clearly the best play.

[Robb]

im check folding to a decent bet.

What makes a bet big enough to be a "decent size" is read dependent. I totally concur, but note that some 5nl villains will fire 2/3's or 3/4's at this board with air, Ax, or a complete underpair. If they've got the balls to shove air into this board, they can have it.

[Galapogos]

I just hate checking at this point because it is effectively saying that you dont have a queen. At the same time it is clearly the best play.

Yeah some people have a tough time getting over this. But when you understand being bluffed off the best hand sometimes isn't the worst thing in the world you plug a serious leak.

Take this hand being discussed for example, although he really should never have called 2 streets with worse that hasn't improved at this point lets say he has. Pretend you're being bluffed 1 out of 10 times. It's okay to give that one time away. Because while you win say $10 that ONE time. You lose about $5 the other 9 times. So yay one time you caught a bluff, but overall you're getting raped.

This thread lacks hand ranges and pokerstoves.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

51 games 0.005 secs 10,200 games/sec

Board: Tc Js 8h 2d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.725% 62.75% 00.98% 32 0.50 { 88+, AJs, KJs+, AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 36.275% 35.29% 00.98% 18 0.50 { KdKs }

this assumes he'd chase the gutterball with KQ though, if KQ is not in his range we look way better
we can call a PSB if he ALWAYS bets this range
we can't call it if he checks down KJ here

[Robb]

Yep the only hands in his range that we beat, if he only plays decent starting hands are JK and AJ.

I think some of us are focusing on different things. I saw "no real read" and started with a wider range. I think Axs, Ax, Kx and a bunch of sc's and suited 1-gappers are in his preflop calling range. I think we're much more likely to be behind a 2 pair like J9 than a straight.

Sure, he shows down the Q often enough to worry me. But I think he's much more likely to have been "chasing" a hand like A9 or K9s. Is it close? A bit, but still a clear 5nl check/call the river for value.

Provided the river bet isn't PSB+ , and provided we have "no real read."