god i love poker

[frosst]

just thought i'd give you an example of what can happen in any given 10k hands.........for those too lazy to look at the numbers...+14BI upswing followed by -13BI (and counting) downswing

[langaan]

just thought i'd give you an example of what can happen in any given 10k hands.........for those too lazy to look at the numbers...+14BI upswing followed by -13BI (and counting) downswing

that looks awfully familiar...

[Robb]

How do you know it's variance? I posted this graph in my operation thread:



The problem is, only about half of the big losses were variance. The rest was due to the fact that I suck at poker. I spewed.

I'm not trying to be mean or jack your thread, just trying to say that I - me personally - make my downswings WORSE than they have to be because I suck at poker. And I use the downswings as incentives to study/work on my game thanks to advice from TJ and Spoon and many other FTR icons.

[frosst]

How do you know it's variance? I posted this graph in my operation thread:



The problem is, only about half of the big losses were variance. The rest was due to the fact that I suck at poker. I spewed.

I'm not trying to be mean or jack your thread, just trying to say that I - me personally - make my downswings WORSE than they have to be because I suck at poker. And I use the downswings as incentives to study/work on my game thanks to advice from TJ and Spoon and many other FTR icons.

at no point did i say it was variance, all i said was "just thought i'd give you an example of what can happen in any given 10k hands"

with that said......it was variance lol j/k. but an easy way to get an idea if its variance or not is with pokerEV....sooooooo

with the sklansky bucks being $80+ higher than my showdown winnings, i know my friend variance is hooking me up

[Robb]

Here's the analysis graph from my last 22k hands at NL10 on Ultimate Bet.



Whenever I see the "Sklansky Bucks" red line horizontal or with negative slope (slanting down to the right), I'm concerned. There could be two reasons for it: (1) I'm playing bad hands in bad situations, or (2) I'm running bad postflop with good preflop cards. In the big purple circle in the image above, I was playing too many tables at once, and making poor decisions. It was during a time I was specifically working on heavy-duty multitabling. I wouldn't do it again, 'cuz I played badly. But some of the negative-slope red line was due to bad "luck."

The circles in orange are spots where I dumped 2+ buy-ins due to "running bad" or negative variance. You find these places by looking for a series of hands where a gap opens up between the red and green lines. When the red/green lines differ by a constant amount for 5k hands, you're running roughly even.

No offense, but an analysis of your EV graph shows almost no connection between "running bad vs. Sklansky Bucks" and the 13 BI downswing and only a medium amount of connection between bad poker luck and the downswing. About $60 of the $80 diversion away from the red Sklansky line had already occurred when the downswing began. Now, the dip of the Sklansky Bucks line over the last 3k hands could be bad poker luck, as long as you feel you were opening high quality cards and just missing lots of flops. Assuming a consistent style of play over the 10k hands, only 5-6 BI's of the downswing appear to be attributable to "bad poker luck" or negative variance. Again, no offense, but maybe you're not playing very well.

Why would I say that? Not to be mean, I assure you. I say it because that's what I think when I look at my own graphs, games and stats, like the one above. I see my EV graph and think: "Whoa! Need to plug a leak!!"

Just my two cents.

[frosst]

dont worry robb, i dont get offended easily. i do believe i said "lol j/k" when i said it was variance.....but i agree, the variance, if applicable, was at the end of that 10k stretch.....i was just illustrating the use of pokerEV to help decide if you're results were being skewed by variance.......as for my EV graph, i posted a pic trying to get an explanation why my sklansky bucks were always so damn high above my winnings, with no crossover

[martindcx1e]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...un-t61617.html