cycle of a downswing

[Chopper]

sorry, not much time to get detailed. but...

you ever notice when variance bites you in the (I) ? everyone goes through it at some point or another. your two pair gets counterfeited on the river, after betting it all the way...knowing the TPTK is floating? your set gets runner/runnered by the 9-high flush? crap like that?

this stuff can try even the best player's patience, threatening to put them on tilt. forcing them to play stoopid hands...just to "create" something for the sake of..."my win rate is going down. oh no! gotta keep it on the positive!"

the "suckout phase" is definitely rock bottom for most of your downswings. but, wait, there is still more of your downswing to go. you dont just come out of one overnight...unless you play like 10k hands in a week. (and you guys that do, know who i am speaking of )

well, if you have the strength to stave off tilt, can you pick up on the signs that you are starting to come out of your downswing? i bet you can...if you look for the signs...and still keep your discipline.

i call this phase the "near misses." and it IS absolutely the most aggravating phase of the downswing...unless you can force yourself to keep the faith because... its almost over.

1) when you play a pp, and see your set hit...on the turn...after you folded.
2) when you play AK, bet out your A, get raised, and hit your K, on the river...right after you gave up.
3) when you hit draws...right after you folded.
4) when you see your BB (69o) specials hit those freaky 2 pair...when you dont play them.
5) when you WOULD have flopped a flush...but didnt.
6) when you have a "decent" hand, and see that you were, in fact, BLUFFED...by the table fishy.

stuff like that?

eventually, these near misses start to hit you. once the stars realign. the "stars" are just still a little out of whack, but they are coming around.

hopefully, you CAN see those signs. and this post was a colossal waste of your time. but in case you cant...you should be able to now.

oh, and dont think just because you see these signs before you come out of the "suckout phase" that you are on your way out of your downswing. YOU ARE NOT!! the Gods are just playing with you for a little while longer.

fine print: this post was meant for maybe only one of you out there. but, i know you are out there.

[Pelion]

2) when you play AK, bet out your A, get raised, and hit your K, on the river...right after you gave up.

wtf? dont fold AK noob. Its the third best hand.

[Chopper]

pelion,

i aint no noob. it was a hypothetical.

dont make me hate your posts/insults.

[Silly String]

wtf? dont fold AK noob. Its the third best hand. /sarcasm

Fixed your post.

[Pelion]

wtf? dont fold AK noob. Its the third best hand. /sarcasm

Fixed your post.

ty

[XTR1000]

i dont remember/look for hands i folded, when i fold a hand i do it for a reason and i´m fine with most of my decisions, even when i WOULD have hit.

[Seasider]

Cycle of a downswing -
1. Lose 9-13 buy ins from bad beats/cold deck
2. Tilt through 3-5 more
3. Move down a limit break even for a bit.
4. Normal.

[ecrujet]

are your cards predetermined? if you have K7 preflop and fold and see K77 come on the flop would it have still been the same if you called or would different algorithyms give you a different flop if you called? Untill now when i see that magic card hit the river i just say to myself it would have been different if i called and only get upset with myself if it was a wrong call based on implied odds.

[jameseyb]

My feelings on seeing things like a full house on the flop when you folded the right cards are that as long as folding the hole cards was the correct thing to do (K7 is a very good example ecrujet), then that's just the way things are.

All the other things Chopper talked about are frighteningly true, but I guess it's just like spotting Land Rovers on a long drive. Sometimes you just _notice_ things more. You might not notice it, but little things will get picked up more than before, so you see your two pair get busted by trips, or that caller to your PFR hitting his 9 high straight with 96o from the BB. In the end, it don't mean nothing.

[gingerwizard]

The deck is predetermined by the shuffle. The shuffle is calculated via a deterministic algorithm design to pick what seems like a random shuffle. (These algorthims are immensly complex and completely unpredictable (google mersenne twister for more info).

After the shuffle you are dealt your cards and the board will come out the same no matter if you fold call or raise.

Regarding OP. I don't wish to seem offensive but the only thing you didn't do there was calculate your luck odds in order to determine estimated downswing lifespan.

Sure downswings are real but the fact that there are signs you are coming out is complete nonsense. All those little things you spot also happen when you're on heaters and when you're steadily winning. They just bother you less. A downswing is not determined by the alignment of the stars! It is just a sequence of beats that far from being unlikely, is completely natural mathematically.

Point is if you are mainly playing with the best of it, your heaters long term will be far sicker than those coolers.

[litetruck]

ginger i dont think hes being literal

Also, how many buyins is considered a downswing?

[Chopper]

are your cards predetermined? if you have K7 preflop and fold and see K77 come on the flop would it have still been the same if you called or would different algorithyms give you a different flop if you called? Untill now when i see that magic card hit the river i just say to myself it would have been different if i called and only get upset with myself if it was a wrong call based on implied odds.

i wonder this one, too. all the time.

when in a downswing, we ALL see some monsters under the bed. your "i'm beat here" reads tend to get frighteningly accurate. like this one...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($24.50)
BB ($20.70)
UTG ($13.75)
UTG+1 ($28.20)
Hero ($26.70)
MP2 ($9.35)
MP3 ($31.80)
CO ($5.40)
Button ($39.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T, Q.
2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 5 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.60) 6, 9, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($0.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.5, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $3.

River: ($10.60) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $18.60

can you fold that? i never seem to fold a str8 unless i am absolutely sure i am beat. i figured him for QT, too, and a split pot. who calls the 3bet on the turn w/ a draw? another QT and a set? when the board pairs and he leads a decent bet, i still figure him for the QT, and buying the pot on a scare card, but cannot take the chance, imo, of finding a donkey flush or boat.

it was the boat. K6o!

we all know this game is RIGGED, right?

but you are right, jamsesyb, "it dont mean nothing."

i just see it as funny, when in a downswing for the umpteenth time, to see the same signs of things starting to improve...just not yet.

we also come out of those downswings...every time...if the downswing dont go busto.

[Chopper]

The deck is predetermined by the shuffle. The shuffle is calculated via a deterministic algorithm design to pick what seems like a random shuffle. (These algorthims are immensly complex and completely unpredictable (google mersenne twister for more info).

After the shuffle you are dealt your cards and the board will come out the same no matter if you fold call or raise.

Regarding OP. I don't wish to seem offensive but the only thing you didn't do there was calculate your luck odds in order to determine estimated downswing lifespan.

Sure downswings are real but the fact that there are signs you are coming out is complete nonsense. All those little things you spot also happen when you're on heaters and when you're steadily winning. They just bother you less. A downswing is not determined by the alignment of the stars! It is just a sequence of beats that far from being unlikely, is completely natural mathematically.

Point is if you are mainly playing with the best of it, your heaters long term will be far sicker than those coolers.

dude, no offense was taken, but thats all a bit serious, isnt it?

this whole post was just a light-hearted comment to the supersticious. you know...like baseball players? none of them actually believe that because they wore pink wristbands on mother's day, and went 4 for 4, that they will never strikeout again as long as they keep wearing the wristbands. or like (to you stl cardinal fans) scott spezeio's red "flavor-savor." it wasnt the reason why he stayed on the team, but dont tell him that. or not shaving your face (hockey fans) until you are run out of the playoffs...like a beard will win Lord Stanley's Cup. however, tell a hockey fan that, and YOU will likely be missing some of your own teeth soon. it's all just good fun.

but for the beginner, the point is to stay focused on your "long-term decision making." that is what gets you through your downswing...

not any of these cowinkydinks.

[djzcko]

Also, how many buyins is considered a downswing?

Depends on a lot of factors: FR or 6 max, tight or loose, agressive or passive. If you are loose, aggressive and play 6 max, a normal swing might be 5 buyins and 15 would be a downswing. If you are tight, passive and play full ring, 5 buyins might be a downswing and 1-2 might be your normal swing up or down. In general though, 10+ is probably a downswing for most.

[bigspenda73]

ginger i dont think hes being literal

Also, how many buyins is considered a downswing?

10

P.S.-you got mail

[MiJ]

are your cards predetermined? if you have K7 preflop and fold and see K77 come on the flop would it have still been the same if you called or would different algorithyms give you a different flop if you called? Untill now when i see that magic card hit the river i just say to myself it would have been different if i called and only get upset with myself if it was a wrong call based on implied odds.

i wonder this one, too. all the time.

when in a downswing, we ALL see some monsters under the bed. your "i'm beat here" reads tend to get frighteningly accurate. like this one...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($24.50)
BB ($20.70)
UTG ($13.75)
UTG+1 ($28.20)
Hero ($26.70)
MP2 ($9.35)
MP3 ($31.80)
CO ($5.40)
Button ($39.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T, Q.
2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 5 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.60) 6, 9, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($0.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.5, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $3.

River: ($10.60) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $18.60

can you fold that? i never seem to fold a str8 unless i am absolutely sure i am beat. i figured him for QT, too, and a split pot. who calls the 3bet on the turn w/ a draw? another QT and a set? when the board pairs and he leads a decent bet, i still figure him for the QT, and buying the pot on a scare card, but cannot take the chance, imo, of finding a donkey flush or boat.

it was the boat. K6o!

we all know this game is RIGGED, right?

but you are right, jamsesyb, "it dont mean nothing."

i just see it as funny, when in a downswing for the umpteenth time, to see the same signs of things starting to improve...just not yet.

we also come out of those wi...every time...if the downswing dont go busto.

fold preflop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chopper]

so, you're telling me you fold QTo pf to a loose and passive table that will let you play all sorts of stuff for a limp?

wow. you must run about 15/8. and have a win rate of 1.25/100 on a 10 NL table. good luck with that, but thanks for such detailed advice all the same.

i understand i gave no "table read," but, imo, most broadways at lower stakes should be in your "i wanna see a cheap flop" range. hell, its only one notch outside aok's starting 19.

[taipan168]

so, you're telling me you fold QTo pf to a loose and passive table that will let you play all sorts of stuff for a limp?

I would fold preflop as well. QT can have bad reverse implied odds if the flop comes Q or T high.

wow. you must run about 15/8. and have a win rate of 1.25/100 on a 10 NL table. good luck with that, but thanks for such detailed advice all the same.

Those are exactly my stats - 15/8, and my winrate over about 20,000 hands (small sample size I know) at 25 and 50NL is >7 PTBB/100.

i understand i gave no "table read," but, imo, most broadways at lower stakes should be in your "i wanna see a cheap flop" range. hell, its only one notch outside aok's starting 19.

To me it's a question of position. If I was folded to on the button I would raise this, if I was on the button and there were 2 limpers in front I would also limp. From early MP it just isn't worth it IMO.

[MiJ]

so, you're telling me you fold QTo pf to a loose and passive table that will let you play all sorts of stuff for a limp?

wow. you must run about 15/8. and have a win rate of 1.25/100 on a 10 NL table. good luck with that, but thanks for such detailed advice all the same.

i understand i gave no "table read," but, imo, most broadways at lower stakes should be in your "i wanna see a cheap flop" range. hell, its only one notch outside aok's starting 19.

btw i run 22/18 playing nl 100 6max and i would still fold qto in mp ...your making it hard on yourtself playing this hand OOP especially a hand that will put you in more tough spots than favorable ones ....