Call this overbet push on draw board?

[benny999]

I've been playing ring for about a year but am pretty new to SnG's. What do you think of this call? Villain seemed aggressive and had won around 4 pots without showdown so far either pre flop or on the flop, but never with overbetting, just standard bets/raises. I thought for a long time and only a bluff/draw fit his line to me, but it's a whole lot to call. I thought a 9 or set (slim chance for two pair or overpair) would reraise to something like the pot or so, not overbet all in.

Oh and it's a $5 45-person SnG on stars.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP (t1775)
CO (t1640)
Hero (t7465)
SB (t9030)
BB (t5040)
UTG (t2320)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 8.
3 folds, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1125) 9, 8, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t800, BB raises to t4415, Hero calls t3615.

Turn: (t9955) Q (2 players)

River: (t9955) Q (2 players)

Final Pot: t9955

[ekillian]

Easy fold. In the long run what are you expecting. In addition to the times that you're ahead (which I don't think will be often) and you lose, say to a draw there will be the times you're behind. You hafta have this player pinned as very reckless to make this correct.

[benny999]

In addition to the times that you're ahead (which I don't think will be often) and you lose, say to a draw there will be the times you're behind...

If he has a better hand a decent amount of the time (maybe even 10-20% of the time), I see what you're saying, given that I'm flipping coins to most draws. If it's 80-90% draws and a bluffs, I will come out a head in the long run, but it's a big gamble for not a lot of EV.

I'm sure a small % of the time this is a set, but a very small %, right? And it could definitely be a slow played TPTK/overpair. But those hands also seem very unlikely given how he'd played previously (in few pots but aggressively betting/raising pre/post flop but not overbetting).

So...considering this is at the low buyins (overbet bluffs are common), and that slight read I had, would anyone "stick with their gut" and call this? Also, in SnG's, especially with a good sized stack getting close to final table, isn't the rule of thumb to stay out of coinflip situations for most of your stack? Does everyone agree this is a blatantly bad call?

[dsmrolla06]

From the way he bet, it looks like an overpair to me. That or two over cards, but i would need a good read on him before being able to call an all in with middle pair and two cards to come.