Is there such this as an +EV bluff or +EV steal???

[Off5th]

There's reason why good player bluff on certain occassion and they do it as an artform. Although is there such is as an +EV bluff play and/or steal??? If so what are the guidlines if there is any.

[Pelion]

You shouldnt be bluffing unless you think it is +EV.

If the pot is $100 and you think a $50 bet will work 60% of the time then that is +EV.

60% of the time steal $100
40$ of the time lose $50

EV = 0.6*100 - 0.4*50 = +40$


Semibluffs are even more +EV in certain circumstances. If you have a 10% chance to win the hand as well if you are called then

60% of the time steal $100
40$ of the time you get called:
90% of this, you lose $50
10% of this you win $100 + $50 = $150

EV = 0.6*100 - 0.4*0.9*50 + 0.4*0.1*150 = +$48


If a bluff has negative EV then you shouldnt do it. It is also possible for a bluff to be break even by itself, but degrade your table image to create more EV on later monsters.

Edit: The only guideline is that the bluff has to work often enough for the pot odds to justify it. So a pot sized bet has to work over half the time. A half pot bet needs to work more than 1/3 of the time etc...

[finky]

If you bet 1/2 the pot with nothing and your opponent folds 1/3 of the time its neutral EV.

For example, pot $100 you bet $50
2 times you loose $50
1 time you win $100
100- (50x2)=0

If he folds more often its +EV, less often -EV.

The better you are a calculating fold equity the better you will be at making these judgements.

edit: Beaten to it, Pelions reply > this one