Grey area plays

[dalecooper]

What do you do in situations like these?

Playing J6 suited from the button (I know, crap hand - pretend it's JA if it makes you feel better, OK?). Flop is T92, none of your suit. In essence the flop gives you nothing except a backdoor straight draw. It checks around until one player whips out the sturdy post-oak bluff, a silly little 1X BB bet. The pot has six limpers in it, so this bet is 1/6 of the current pot, and it's pretty much a guarantee that 4 or 5 of the limpers will call just to try to improve.

Do you...

A. call, hoping to catch a real straight draw on the turn?
B. throw down a real bet, thinking you can steal this pot right now?
C. fold?

I hate these situations. I seem to usually fold or call depending on my mood & if I have any outs other than that remote possibility of the straight. I don't think I have a logical, well thought-out response that I do every time this comes up. I understand the value of stabbing at pots full of weak bettors, but with this many in, that's a very dangerous game... you tend to get called just because of all the action, and then someone with a stronger draw than yours (or with a middle pair or something) takes it down. Or worse, you bump into a check-raise. I don't worry about those much in pots with just three guys, but with six I get nervous.

[Sed]

You will find you answer by playing an SnG with tape over your cards....

AJ I'd raise, as long as there are no obvious draws. If someone pushes, I'll let it go.
J6s I'd put down the crack pipe and fold.

- sed

[dalecooper]

Here's another grey area for you: holding whatever two cards in middle position, you flop a gutshot straight draw, but the board is all suited in a suit you have none of. There are five in the pot, which is currently about $3.50. It checks halfway around and someone throws out the meaningless 1XBB bet of .50. As usual several people have called, or will call, to see if their hands improve. Do you:

1. call to see if you land one of your 4 outs?
2. raise to see if you can win the pot on a scare?
3. fold?

It seems to me like *usually* calling this bet with a gutshot draw is a good idea - it's fabulous pot odds for four outs. But with the three suited cards, the implied odds go in the toilet, because I'm probably not going to fire huge bets into a multi-way pot even if I made my straight, because of the likelihood of someone slowplaying the flush (or sitting on & calling with a weak flush). And again, I am not crazy about trying to steal this pot with none of the suit on the board, and this many players in.

Or how about this one: low pocket pair, board is a bunch of rainbow rags. You have no set, no draw except the two outs to make a set. .50 bet with lots of callers - call, raise, or fold? I almost always fold this... seems like a waste of money for just two outs, even though the pot odds are as good as they ever get.

(As you can see, many of my questions that I still have about hold 'em involve saving these small amounts that I feel like often I am just throwing away.)

[Aces]

First hand - very easy fold. Someone could be waiting to check raise, and if you do get one or two calls to your reraise, are you really going to bluff at it again with no help on the turn, which even if you do hit a st8 draw you're likely still a dog to win? Wait for a better opportunity.

2nd hand - with 5 in the pot, I'm probably folding, maybe calling, no way am I raising. Somebody's got a good flush draw at least if not a made flush, and someone could already have a pair with that many in the pot(say Ax or Kx where x is the highest on the flop).

3rd hand - depends on reads and how many in the hand. With more than one or two it's a check/fold. With one or two you could bluff at it if no draw on the board.

[Sed]

I agree about the 3flush on the flop... I don't think anyone will bet that out if they caught the flush. They are waiting for you to catch your second best hand and then take your money. Only situation I would bet that flop (hoping to end it there) is if I raised preflop, caught a top pair or two in there, and it was checked to me. BUT I would easily let it go to any aggression.

- sed

[Sed]

Nevermind im an idiot

- sed

{This post has been removed}

[Sed]

I was assuming there were fewer in the had because of the raise in that last post... betting into 6 people is a little silly.

- sed

[|~|ypermegachi]

easy fold for both, and it's not even close

[Wet_DreaMer]

=(

J6s is not a 'crap hand'

[Lucid]

This is such an easy much. With 6 people someone is almost guaranteed to have a better hand. If your on the button you should only try to steal pots if there are fewer people and you have some potential. Staying in is
-Ev decision. You took a chance with a weak hand and hopped for the best and got nothing. Don’t throw money after bad opportunities even if its a small amount. If your going to raise you might as well just send them a check.

[dalecooper]

This is such an easy much. With 6 people someone is almost guaranteed to have a better hand. If your on the button you should only try to steal pots if there are fewer people and you have some potential. Staying in is
-Ev decision. You took a chance with a weak hand and hopped for the best and got nothing. Don’t throw money after bad opportunities even if its a small amount. If your going to raise you might as well just send them a check.

For the record I completely agree - I'd never raise into a pot that large, with a scary board and me holding nothing. Even a non-scary board, someone has top pair or something and will call you down. I just wanted to present all the available options. To me, these kind of situations are either call or fold. I used to call a lot of times, thinking my pot odds & implied value were good enough to compensate for the fact that I had very few outs, realistically speaking... now I generally fold, because I'm tired of flushing away even minimum bets on hands that seem to never develop. I am not really sure if my EV is + or - with these hands when I call, but I'm not going to bother with them anymore.

[dalecooper]

=(

J6s is not a 'crap hand'

Seriously? You like this hand? I'll play it from the blinds if there's no raise, and I'll play it from the button occasionally depending on the table (and again, assuming there's no raise)... but I harbor no illusions about its strength. If you don't flop the flush, flush draw, or two pair, it's crap. You have no high card, the cards don't connect... except for the two being suited, this is basically 72o in disguise. I'm also not crazy about playing any kind of hole cards like this because a lot of the hands you can make (flush, lucky trips, etc.) are extremely vulnerable as these things go. If you make a flush, it's not that unlikely that you'll run into a higher flush and lose a ton of money. If you make trip sixes or jacks, it's not outside the realm of probability that you'll bump into trips with a better kicker (your AJ or A6 suited type hands), and again lose a ton of money. I love implied value hands like suited connectors and baby pairs, but as these kinds of hands go J6 is still marginal at best.

Fun facts: J6 suited wins 37% against AKo.
72o wins 33% against AKo.

[Jason]

That first situation seems like an easy fold. The only hand you can get to win is probably a runner runner straight, so the (1:6) odds don’t nearly justify a call. That silly 1XBB is another round of cards you can play with and your opponents can’t play with. This situation doesn’t seem like a gray area, rather a clear cut fold.

For the second situation, the pot odds for your 4 outs is 16.5%, so if you are in the first position after the bet, your odds are .50/4.00 12% - good enough, not what I would call fabulous. If you are in last position, your odds increase to .50/5.50 9% assuming everyone stays in and doesn’t raise. But the big problem is that there’s a potential flush on the board and you could be drawing dead. Or, if someone has so much as a flush draw (one diamond), their pot odds are at 35% and dominate your straight draw. My choice would be to fold and not try to draw with the second best hand. You might be able to call if you don’t think anyone has you beat now and see what the flop and river brings. For raising to be the right play, you’d have to bet more than 35% of the pot $1.40 in first position or $1.93 in last position assuming no one has already made their flush.

Your third situation is too ambiguous. Is the flop all overcards, flush possibilities, straight possibilities? A small pocket pair is not usually a good hand unless you make your set and the odds of getting it after the flop are 8.4% and not “as good as they ever get”.

Good luck. I hope that helps.

[Jason]

For raising to be the right play, you’d have to bet more than 35% of the pot ...

I should clarify that. Raising that amount doesn't necessarily make it the "right" play, so much as it makes it an unjustifiable call relative to the pot odds for a flush draw. It's basically a bluff on your part.

[dalecooper]

Your third situation is too ambiguous. Is the flop all overcards, flush possibilities, straight possibilities? A small pocket pair is not usually a good hand unless you make your set and the odds of getting it after the flop are 8.4% and not “as good as they ever get”.

Mixed over and unders - let's say two overs and one under, so the pocket pair is almost certainly not the winner as is in a 4 or 5-way pot. No flush (I did say rainbow flop) and only uncertain, very hidden straight possibilities.

Certainly the odds of hitting your set post-flop are not great, but the pot odds are indeed decent (.50 call into a pot that was $3 pre-flop and will be about $5 with all the calls... that's 10:1... the next round on the turn will very likely be a .50 or $1 bet with one fewer caller, to judge by the usual action. So let's say it will cost me $1.50 to see the next two cards, and I can assume the pot as of the turn betting will settle around $8). If you factor in any amount of implied value at all, this seems like a situation where calling isn't bad. Yet I usually fold here, because lingering in these hands is tedious and so rarely pays out.

[Jason]

If the odds justify a call such that you are reasonably sure you will win if it hits, the correct play is to call. It should pay out 8.4% of the time (1 out of every 12 hands), which will be worth it in the long run. The caveat is that it only pays off if you stay until the end, so the behavior at the table will play a factor, too. For example, if there is a maniac in the game that you are sure will bet big (more than 8.7% of the pot) after the turn, you probably won't be able to stay in the hand long enough, and folding would be optimal. This is one area of my game that I sometimes neglect in my calculations and I need to work on - assessing future bets. If the game is normal or tight, you would have a better chance to stick it out to the end and a call would probably be the best play. It will be more difficult to stay to the end if you have aggressive or loose players.

Good luck.

[dalecooper]

Thanks. It seems like very often I end up at tables where the betting is highly predictable (even though it's a NL or PL table). If the flop is rainbow and no real high cards, someone bets .50 and everyone calls; same person bets $1 and everyone calls; same person bets $3 or $4 and everyone folds. This pattern is reliable enough that I feel pretty confident calculating my odds from the flop through the river, if I want to see both cards. The only question is if I can extract any money on the river - usually the person initiating the betting all along will put down a few dollars, which alone is almost enough implied value for hitting the set. Then if I raise him and get called, even better.

It seems if I think it through this way that calling small bets into a large field of callers is a good idea with a low pair, provided the board isn't scary at all. However I tend to believe that because this only comes into play at tight/passive tables, and because the payoff only lands 1 time out of 12, that maybe this isn't that profitable of a play. Net expectation is probably barely above even, or maybe right at even.

[SteveO]

3 to a flush on the flop and OESD- dump it every time, and twice if there is a baby bet (baby bet smells of made hand hoping to build a decent pot by not scaring anyone away or a weak semibluff to the nuts). First, your outs are not clean as 2 of them will put 4 to a flush on the board. Second, someone is sitting out there slowplaying a made flush which can cost you a lot of mony in the event that you make a beautiful second best.

If you have a pocket pair and not getting any action bet the damn pot. You'll be surprised how often your made hand is best when the flop missed everyone. However, you just have to use common sense, how many people are in the hand, how many overcards are on the board and how likely is it that one of your opponents are holding one of the overcards? You are making that play to win the pot right there and have no intention of "drawing" to a set.

Dump the J6 every time in NL. Drawing to a draw is not even a good idea in limit unless there are 6-8 people in the pot. However if you have the AJ or any 2 overs and are sitting in late position with no action in front of you, there is nothing wrong with trying to buy the pot, just don't do it with one of those weak minimum bets.