25nl Line Check: 2nd and 3rd on wet board, 3bp

[The Bean Counter]

Struggling to work out if I play this okay or play every street horribly - how do you rate my line and which street(s) would you play differently?

Villain is 28/15 with 6% 3bet over 279 hands. No other reads, meaning I must have been mass multi-tabling during those 279 hands.


SB ($25.10)
BB ($24.28)
UTG ($24.51)
MP ($11.75)
Hero (Button) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.62, 1 fold, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.38

Flop: ($4.10) J, 10, K (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $7.25, BB calls $5.25

Turn: ($18.60) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15.75 (All-In)

[rpm]

what did you plan to do vs a flop shove?

[daviddem]

You're doing pretty bad against his continuing range OTF:

Board: Jd Tc Kd
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     37.718%      37.05%     00.67%              16507           296.50   { JsTs }
Hand 1:     62.282%      61.62%     00.67%              27450           296.50   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

This may seem like a tight range, but he does not seem to 3b bluff much, and even if you add stuff like KJs,QJs,KQs, 9Ts and nut flush draws, it's hard to bring his equity down to 50%:

Board: Jd Tc Kd
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     48.575%      47.78%     00.80%              39730           665.00   { JsTs }
Hand 1:     51.425%      50.63%     00.80%              42100           665.00   { 99+, ATs+, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs+, QJs, T9s, ATo+ }

In view of this, I probably just flat the flop. This keeps his range wide and prevents excessive commitment.

OTT, he does not have his sets anymore because these would most likely shove over OTF. But any flush draw he may have had just completed. You surely don't have 50% equity against his continuing range. Check behind. When you shove here you are essentially turning your hand into a bluff trying to find a fold from his better two pairs and straights. You are almost never getting a call from worse hands.

[rpm]

nice post daviddem

[daviddem]

Thinking again, the turn may be closer than I first thought:

- it's very debatable whether villain still has straights in his range, for the same reasons he probably does not have sets. Would he flat the flop and check the turn with these when Hero has a lot of sets, two pairs and nut flush draws in his range? Actually it does not make much sense that he would flat the flop with a straight, but if he ever does, he may be checking the turn because of the flush card.
- villain has very few better two pairs as he probably does not 3b KT or KJ preflop.
- villain does not have many flushes in his range unless he 3b light pre with an AdXd
- Hero probably gets calls from AdK, AdA, QdQ and KQd (however even against this range only, Hero still has just 55% equity or so).

[rpm]

i should chip in that i think villain's flop continuing range will be somewhat wider than daviddem's assessment of it but, as he showed, villain still needs to play verrrrry badly vs our flop raise for that to be correct in this case.

it is probably also worth saying that (assuming hero plans to fold to a shove, which seems like a good idea vs any sane b/3b range) we need to be wary raising for "thin" value if we feel our opponent will ever bluff us. because some % of the time we are forced to fold and don't get to realise our hand's equity. thus we actually want MORE than the standard 50% equity required to value bet to compensate for the equity we lose when we fold

[Icanhastreebet]

So today we've learned bottom 2 pair sucks.