Can you fold here?

[BorisTheSpider]

Hero (BB) ($40.17)
UTG ($25)
MP ($23.15)
CO ($14.57)
Button ($26.44)
SB ($45.31)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
UTG bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, SB calls $4.25

Flop: ($11.50) Q, 6, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.68, SB raises to $40.31 (All-In), Hero calls $27.49 (All-In)

Turn: ($81.84) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($81.84) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $81.84 | Rake: $2


Villain is extremely fishy, about 30/12. The guy who opened UTG seemed fairly solid, but the MP caller was 50/20 or so, hence the oversize 3bet to get it heads up.

When villain calls the oversize 3bet, he's calling loose, but not absolutely maniacal, so when we see the flop he can have;

8 combos of AK
6 combos of AQ
6 combos of KK
1 combo of AA
1 combo of QQ

Out of those, he will make his flop check-shove with 6xAQ + 6xKK that we are crushing, 1 combo of AA that we're probably splitting with unless there are running diamonds, and 1 combo of QQ that is crushing us.

So, we are winning or splitting on 13 combos, and we're crushed by 1.

Am I missing anything, is this an unreasonable spot to call his shove? Who thinks he _wouldn't_ shove AQ or KK?

He was pretty passive. I wouldn't expect to see him shove the nut flush draw here, and generally being so passive but not outrageously loose I expected to see KK, or perhaps a loose AQ that'd hit the flop so hard he ejaculated.

I was genuinely mindfucked to see him turn over 33. That is poker, and I look forward to playing against him again, but I am interested to know who thinks I stacked off light here? Is anyone folding?




EDIT:

FUCK. I just realised this guy was folding 15% to 3bets, albeit over quite a small sample. I guess I need to get better at using preflop stats once something unexpected happens at the flop. I was a little too quick to expect KK when he called such a big 3bet pf, but I guess I could have got away from this if I'd read that stat at the time and considered 66/33.

So let's redo his range in light of this. He is calling the oversize 3bet preflop with all PP, AK, AQ, KQ.

He will check-shove the flop with 3 combos of 66, 3 of 33, 3 of QQ, 6 of KK, 6 of AQ, 1 of AA.

9 are crushing us, 12 we crush, 1 is a split pot most times.

Still perhaps not a light stack-off, but considerably lighter than I thought above.

Let's be pessimistic and say he wouldn't ship AQ here, then we are crushed by 9 and crushing 6. Let's see if this was a big fuckup on my part to call.

I was getting $46.67 to $27.49 or about 1.7:1 to call, so we need about 37% equity and sticking this on the stove with his tightest check-shoving range {AA,KK,QQ,66,33} shows us having 41%, so I still make it a call but only marginally.

Perhaps that's not a sufficient excuse to chalk this one up to experience, as I do feel a bit of a dick for the way I just froze up like a deer in the headlights and called a totally unexpected shove _hoping_ he had KK rather than QQ. It turns out the decision probably wasn't absolutely terrible, but I still feel like I could have done better and might have been able to find a fold here.

It also ties in with the thread about setmining in 3bet pots I posted the other day. Sure, the guy here didn't have odds to do so, but had my 3bet been a little smaller he'd have been up against a hand that was stacking off to his set and he'd have had odds to see the flop. Maybe I don't have a clue - I'm not about to say I know better than everyone who says not to do it, but when stacks offer odds to setmine in pots where someone's got married to their AA/KK and the flop doesn't look _too_ scary, stuff like this happens.