Bet sizing the nuts

[Petulie]

One of my leaks is not being able to get my stack in by the river with the nuts against fish. I think I'm a bit timid on earlier streets and end up with a pot sized jam on the river which I fear won't be called and so I wimp out on the river as well. Lame, cause I know I should just be getting it in - I'll be profiting way more by betting large and getting it in even if they fold occasionally rather than betting small and not getting my value.

Villain is 47/27 fish. The flop is wettish and I could have gone at least 45c. On the turn, I should be charging for continuing with draws so I probably could have gone more like 1.20, maybe larger? That makes a pot of 3.85 I can jam my remaining 3.10 into. Does this sound reasonable? Should I be betting even larger on earlier streets?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($3.33)
Button ($5.74)
Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($10.03)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
1 fold, Button calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.55) K, 9, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.35) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.95, Button calls $0.95

River: ($3.25) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, Button calls $2.30

Total pot: $7.85 | Rake: $0.33

[OngBonga]

Villain is 47/27 fish.

Overbet flop, overbet turn, shove river. This guy is not folding a flush draw on flop and turn, and he's calling a king down.

Flop, I'd fire $0.60, he calls pot is now $1.75
Turn I'm now betting $2, he calls, pot is now $5.75
Shove river is now standard, bet is now small enough for this guy to call Jx flush draw.

If this guy calls flop then folds turn, note that he folds to overbets and pot it against him in future. If he folds flop, he had air anyway. If he folds river, he was flushing and might have folded to larger bets.

Note... you don't have the nuts. Your hand is obviously pretty nutty against this guy, but he has QT and JJ in his range, so don't expect to take this down 100%.

Thinking about it, it might be worth just shoving this flop, he calls a king and a flush draw. But we're only playing this way because this guy is retarded, if we think he can lay down a king or flush draw, then bet less for value.

[Petulie]

Well, this was just an example hand of failing to get my stack in with the nuts. True he may have straights or better sets in his range but this guy was pretty aggro, AF 5, so I think he'd let me know if he had something.

I'm wary of overbetting pot. I'm sure there are a lot of spots I'm missing good overbets but I don't think this is it. We'd be folding out a lot of his drawing range by overbetting both flop and turn, again, value I'll be missing out on. I want to keep his range pretty wide.

But I'd like to generalise this topic a little, the hand posted was merely an example. I imagine a lot of other micro grinders struggle to maximise value as well, especially in non-3bet pots where it's harder to build up the pot.

[OngBonga]

It depends on villain. I'm making assumptions, but his stats indicate to me that he is having a hard time folding top pair, and does not understand pot odds. A tighter player, like 18/15 or whatever, then I'd say your bet sizing was about right, though sizing is a weakness of mine so I could be wrong. But against fish like this, they're happy to see big bets when they have top pair because they think top pair is the nuts. We should be taking full advantage of those who can't lay down top pair and flush draws, and this guy looks like one of them. My problem is extracting value from good regs, not fish. Take this guy to value town.

[BorisTheSpider]

This isn't a badly played hand at all, well done for getting a decent pot built with it. You could have done a bit better if you'd looked at the flop at the size of both your stacks, then made a plan to get it in by the river.

The flop pot is 0.55, effective stacks are 4.45 at this point, so if you pot the flop the turn pot would be 1.65 with 3.90 behind, pot the turn and it's 4.95 with 2.25 behind, which leaves a small river shove. That way, if he's drawing for the flush, he may call if he's also paired a small piece at the river, or may fold with over half the stacks in the pot by the time he gives up.

You could also have gone for just slightly larger (3/4 pot or so) flop and turn bets to leave a pot size or slightly smaller river shove behind.

If you try to get it in every time you've got this much the best of it, you'll make considerably more money than sizing bets that you think will be called more often.

[Penneywize]

Played fine, F overbetting multiple streets, you're charging them fine for draws as is. Maximize value from villain's total range.

Also you don't have the nuts!

[Icanhastreebet]

terrible spot for overbetting and I love to overbet. bigger on turn might be a tiny bit bitter. I definitely go bigger river since Jx/Kx are never folding and that's most of what we are looking to be called by.