Flopped straight after steal, trouble on river ($5NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

I'm in the SB w/ a nitty villain who tries to steal from the button. He's 14/4/3.2, ~300 hands, he only steals 14%, cbets 55%, folds vs flop cbet, 80%. No interesting reads.

Merge, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
MP1: $7.96
MP2: $5.85
MP3: $0.50
CO: $3.90
BTN: $7.17
Hero (SB): $4.02
BB: $5.38

Preflop: Hero is SB with A J
4 folds, BTN raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.10, BB folds

Ok, so possible mistake #1: should I have 3bet? I don't have enough stats on his fold vs resteal (probably bc he steals so infrequently). I know he's got something. I'm thinking I can assigning him a range of { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }.

Flop: ($0.28) K T Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14

Wow, awesome. Broadway! I check, which was probably risky w/ his 50 cebt stat, but happily he fires and I call. (Mistakes #2 & 3 perhpas?) I was thinking that w/ no flushes flush draws out there, it would be safe to flat and let him catch up or bet his pair or his set. At this point I'm guessing he continues w/ all his broadway cards, but not low-medium pocket pairs.

Turn: ($0.56) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.42, BTN calls $0.42

A blank. Perfect. 3/4 pot bet, a call. Ok I'll take it. He has at least a pair, and maybe we're chopping. But I can't narrow his range down too much, so maybe it's {99+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo} which I'm crushing.

River: ($1.40) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.05, BTN raises to $6.49 and is all-in

A somewhat safe river, I think. So I bet ... and he shoves!. Is this a snap call w/ a straight? And perhaps more importantly, did I play this hand too passively preflop and on the flop?

[rong]

Since my mini lesson with bikes, I think I'd say bet/3b the flop, bet/3b shove the turn and bet fold the river both as played and if not got it in earlier when leading. But against this villain I don't mind calling preflop.

[Hoopy]

Ok, so possible mistake #1: should I have 3bet? I don't have enough stats on his fold vs resteal (probably bc he steals so infrequently). I know he's got something. I'm thinking I can assigning him a range of { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }.

Think about reasons for 3betting, put him on a range that continues to a 3bet even if you have to guess. Will calling be +EV? If neither one is good then just fold.

Wow, awesome. Broadway! I check, which was probably risky w/ his 50 cebt stat, but happily he fires and I call. (Mistakes #2 & 3 perhpas?) I was thinking that w/ no flushes flush draws out there, it would be safe to flat and let him catch up or bet his pair or his set. At this point I'm guessing he continues w/ all his broadway cards, but not low-medium pocket pairs.

I like leading here better than c/r'ing given his cbet stat (he might not bet 99-22, Tx/Qx, air), need to build a big pot though and he probably has something worth continuing with so raise.

A somewhat safe river, I think. So I bet ... and he shoves!. Is this a snap call w/ a straight? And perhaps more importantly, did I play this hand too passively preflop and on the flop?

Need to put him on a range.

When he just calls your lead on the turn he reps weaker hands in general (Qx/JT/spades, some Kx), two pair like KQ/KT/QT will usually raise. Some of those have SDV on this river (AK/KJ/AQ/QJ) and will call. Hands that will jam this river are slowplayed boats/AJ/maybe AA. AJ/AA won't always just call turn then jam this river though imo + we have blockers.

I'd fold since he's passive and unlikely to be shoving less than a boat here.

[Miffed22001]

dear god raise the flop - hes raising 4% of hands and steals only strong hands - which he either totally whiffed or toally hit this flop and will allow you to get money in quickly

[rowhousepd]

Think about reasons for 3betting, put him on a range that continues to a 3bet even if you have to guess. Will calling be +EV? If neither one is good then just fold.

Yup. In hindsight (and knowing what he had) he probably would have called my 3bet, but if he reraised me I would have folded only having lost maybe 12bb or so.

Need to put him on a range.

When he just calls your lead on the turn he reps weaker hands in general (Qx/JT/spades, some Kx), two pair like KQ/KT/QT will usually raise. Some of those have SDV on this river (AK/KJ/AQ/QJ) and will call. Hands that will jam this river are slowplayed boats/AJ/maybe AA. AJ/AA won't always just call turn then jam this river though imo + we have blockers.

I'd fold since he's passive and unlikely to be shoving less than a boat here.

I was thinking that basically pairs would call my bet, but I'd get raised w/ top & middle (maybe even bottom sets) ... which is what had me a little puzzled on the river. But his insta-shove pretty screamed boat.

Thanks for the input.

[Hoopy]

Yup. In hindsight (and knowing what he had) he probably would have called my 3bet, but if he reraised me I would have folded only having lost maybe 12bb or so.

Hindsight isn't helpful. We either 3bet for value or as a bluff.

He steals 14%, vs most reasonable ranges we're flipping with AJo but he will fold to a 3bet some % of the time (really need that stat). Hence we can't 3bet for value. 3betting as a bluff (getting him to fold pairs, AQ+) is unlikely to show a profit.

Calling is the best play.

[bikes]

not folding river

[Ionokile]

He had a pocket pair probably tens ¡¡¡

[Penneywize]

He had a pocket pair probably tens ¡¡¡

I really want to smack you, sir.

[rong]

lollllll

[OngBonga]

I'm not sure why you feel this river is "safe". On the turn, you had the nuts. Now you don't. It's a horrible river. What's his range on the turn? He's got something like AK AJ AQ KQ KT TT+ and possibly some Kx and Ax spade combos. The hands we beat are probably calling a river bet, since they have showdown value and are losing to strong hands that are unlikely to fold to a shove, so I can't see villain shoving anything other than a boat here, unless he's turned his 99 into a massive bluff, or maybe he has AJ too and is trying to push us off a chop. I'd b/f this river unless we've seen this guy do something crazy before.

[Miffed22001]

Bikes - surely we are just short of enough equity to call river vs his getting it in range. Haven't stoved it yet but against straights and boats we surely are just behind. Be interested in what range and equity you are giving us here - better price and I'd call more I think

I'm thinking AJ J9 boats A4 and 2 combos of spaz...

[bikes]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19 games 0.005 secs 3,800 games/sec

Board: Kh Td Qs 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.737% 21.05% 23.68% 4 4.50 { AA, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AJs, J9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 55.263% 31.58% 23.68% 6 4.50 { AcJh }

expect him to raise most sets on the turn so sets discounted, would not expect him to raise AA OTT



24 games 0.005 secs 4,800 games/sec

Board: Kh Td Qs 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.250% 37.50% 18.75% 9 4.50 { QQ+, TT, AJs, J9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 43.750% 25.00% 18.75% 6 4.50 { AcJh }


not discounting sets

[OngBonga]

How often does villain shove AA on this river? J9? AJ? They can only expect to get value from KQ, which is a small part of our range and folds to a river shove a good % of the time anyway. When villain shoves, we have to assume he has put us on a range and he feels that either there's enough marginal hands in our range that we're folding often enough for him to bluff, or that his hand crushes our range. I think our range to villain will be pretty fucking strong, like sets, straights and 2pairs. Is he really shoving AA for value against this range? I doubt it very much. He's either stone cold bluffing, or he has us crushed. I don't think villain has AA very often at all after this river shove, if he has he's as good as turned it into a bluff. I think if he has a straight, he's raising the turn more often than he raises the turn with a set on this board. Some people like to see cards cheap with sets on dangerous flops to see if they fill up, and then go for maximum value to get straights and flushes paying. That's what I think is going on here.

The hands he has in his range that we beat have enough showdown value to call this river bet of ours, there's no need for him to raise all in unless he has air or he's got a boat. Nh, fold.

[Miffed22001]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19 games 0.005 secs 3,800 games/sec

Board: Kh Td Qs 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.737% 21.05% 23.68% 4 4.50 { AA, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AJs, J9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 55.263% 31.58% 23.68% 6 4.50 { AcJh }

expect him to raise most sets on the turn so sets discounted, would not expect him to raise AA OTT



24 games 0.005 secs 4,800 games/sec

Board: Kh Td Qs 4s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.250% 37.50% 18.75% 9 4.50 { QQ+, TT, AJs, J9s, AJo }
Hand 1: 43.750% 25.00% 18.75% 6 4.50 { AcJh }


not discounting sets

hmm

Fair enough - call, but not happy about it

[OngBonga]

So even if villain has AA and J9s in his river shoving range, he only has these 25% of the time? Are we really showing a profit here? What about when we take away AA from his river shoving range? I'm not even convinced AJ and J9 can find a shove very often here. I suspect our equity is going to be identical to his river bluffing %, which on this board and as played is not much above zero, imo.

So against a shoving range of TT QQ+ AJ J9s...

25 times in 100 he has AA and J9s, meaning we win... 25 x 5.42... 135.5
18.75 times in 100 we recover... 18.75*(2/5.42+2.29)... 49.86
56.25 times in 100 we lose a total of 128.81

Bugger me, we're showing a profit, the pot odds become better when one realises that the shove is not $5.44, but actually $2.29 due to our stack size. He really needs to do this with AA though, which I'm yet to be convinced happens anywhere near often enough, since he has decent showdown value with a very vulnerable hand. Same with J9 really, not many worse hands call a shove, while the only hand he loses to that can fold is AJ. Does he really do this with those two hands?

[eugmac]

the pot odds become better when one realises that the shove is not $5.44, but actually $2.29 due to our stack size.

[rowhousepd]

I'm not sure why you feel this river is "safe". On the turn, you had the nuts. Now you don't. It's a horrible river. What's his range on the turn? He's got something like AK AJ AQ KQ KT TT+ and possibly some Kx and Ax spade combos.

Ok technically you're right, it's not exactly a brick. But I wasn't putting him on a set on the flop or turn bc of his call on the turn. To me this was safer than if it was a third spade.

How often does villain shove AA on this river? J9? AJ? They can only expect to get value from KQ, which is a small part of our range and folds to a river shove a good % of the time anyway. When villain shoves, we have to assume he has put us on a range and he feels that either there's enough marginal hands in our range that we're folding often enough for him to bluff, or that his hand crushes our range. I think our range to villain will be pretty fucking strong, like sets, straights and 2pairs. Is he really shoving AA for value against this range? I doubt it very much. He's either stone cold bluffing, or he has us crushed.

Good point. Plus I don't think he flats bet on the turn bet w/ AA and then raises out bet on the river w/ an unimproved hand. (That is, in retrospect. )

[OngBonga]

Plus I don't think he flats bet on the turn bet w/ AA and then raises out bet on the river w/ an unimproved hand. (That is, in retrospect. )

Exactly this. Why get aggressive on the river with AA when he didn't on the turn? As it happens, the river does improve AA to a hand that now beats KQ and other 2pair combos we might have, but this just increases its showdown value against these hands, he should still be flat calling river with AA because he's losing to so much of your range, and you're folding very little of your range. That's why he has shoved imo, because your range is strong, and he thinks you have a hand that you will not fold. That's why I think his range is boats and sometimes AJ, but never AA and rarely J9. If he has a hand we beat here I'll be very surprised.