5NL-FR QQ UTG vs fish

[daviddem]

Opp is 67/0/1.8AF over 39 hands, cold calling raises 50% of the time (7 hands out of 14). At the time of the hand, his stats were even looser.

So his preflop range is incredibly wide, I'd say he plays any two suited, all aces, all kings ,Q5+,J7+, T8+,98 or so

Don't know how to interpret the donk min bet, some opps do that with a flush draw or even air, some do it with their strong hands like overpairs or trips or sets, so let's say his range:
any two spades (anyone knows a convenient way to quickly select "any two spades" in Pokerstove?), 8x, 3x and maybe even all his PP lower than 8.

So it's definitely a raise here, no question about it.

Then I'd say he min-reraise all his 8's, all his 3's, 99+: 99+,A8s,A3s,K8s,K3s,Q8s,Q3s,J8s,J3s,T8s,T3s,98s,93 s,83s,73s,63s,53s,43s,A8o,A3o,K8o,K3o,Q8o,T8o

Not sure if he would do that with his flush draws.

If he doesn't do it with his flush draws, we get 55% equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 110,880  games     0.003 secs    36,960,000  games/sec

Board: 3c 8c 3s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     54.403%      53.97%     00.43%              59847           475.50   { QhQs }
Hand 1:     45.597%      45.17%     00.43%              50082           475.50   { 88+, A8s, A3s, K8s, K3s, Q8s, Q3s, J8s, J3s, T8s, T3s, 98s, 93s, 83s, 73s, 63s, 53s, 43s, A8o, A3o, K8o, K3o, Q8o, T8o }

Of course, I am not sure about the above range. Maybe he only does that with his 3's and 88+ instead, in which case we're crushed.

Shove over, call or fold?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($5.27)
Hero (UTG) ($5.04)
UTG+1 ($1.99)
MP1 ($7.35)
MP2 ($0.54)
MP3 ($5)
CO ($5.50)
Button ($3.37)
SB ($6.46)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $0.20, 6 folds, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.45) 3, 8, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.50, SB raises to $0.95

[supa]

To get atc of a suit select "any suited" from the preflop chart then click off the three suited buttons below that don't apply.

Folding isn't bad here imo.

[Donachello]

Folding isn't bad here imo.

You're right it isn't bad... It's fucking awful.

Get it in thanks.

[supa]

You're right it isn't bad... It's fucking awful.

Get it in thanks.

In general terms of poker I would agree with this statement 100%.

In terms of beating 5nl we can make nitty folds in these situations because there are way better spots make monies than spewing chips into a fish that we only have 39 hands on. Combine that w/ the minbet/minraise and he's gonna show up here with the best hand more often than we think.

The thing is that I always make this call, and it always seems to be a mistake, so I'm trying to stop making that mistake and move on to better prospects. It's one reason I'm not beating 5nl.

Don't feed the fish.

[tyrn]

In terms of beating 5nl we can make nitty folds in these situations because there are way better spots make monies than spewing chips into a fish that we only have 39 hands on.

uh oh, here we go again with it's 5nl.

I don't agree though, +ev spot is +ev no matter how much you've been running bad lately and running into monsters. Read rpm's post

[supa]

uh oh, here we go again with it's 5nl.

I don't agree though, +ev spot is +ev no matter how much you've been running bad lately and running into monsters. Read rpm's post

Obviously you understand that you have take which stakes you're playing into consideration when making decisions yeah?

And you're right, +ev is +ev in the long term. Who the fuck wants to be @5nl for the long term?

Maybe he only does that with his 3's and 88+ instead, in which case we're crushed.

This. If op isn't sure, it's just as easy to fold. If this statement is correct then it's -ev. Without a solid read here there's no reason to spew chips off.

[Imthenewfish]

In general terms of poker I would agree with this statement 100%.

In terms of beating 5nl we can make nitty folds in these situations because there are way better spots make monies than spewing chips into a fish that we only have 39 hands on. Combine that w/ the minbet/minraise and he's gonna show up here with the best hand more often than we think.

The thing is that I always make this call, and it always seems to be a mistake, so I'm trying to stop making that mistake and move on to better prospects. It's one reason I'm not beating 5nl.

Don't feed the fish.

wat. by 'there are way better spots make monies than spewing chips into a fish that we only have 39 hands on' kinda makes no sense because you're trying to make all the +EV plays you can, not just the ones where you have top set. you say we don't have enough hands to know that he's doing this with top pair or draws very often here, but it's just as -EV to assume we're beat whenever people minraise 'cos its the nuts. This hand has really nothing to do with 5nl. fish are fish, no matter what stakes they're playing. Fish aren't better at 50's than 5's. Idk this is probably one reason why im beating 5nl

[rpm]

i think he has QQ-99,A8 and K8s enough here to get in even without all the draws in his range.


Board: 3c 8c 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.212% 37.22% 00.99% 17686 472.50 { QQ-99, A8s, K8s, 63s, 53s, 43s, 32s, A8o, 43o }
Hand 1: 61.788% 60.79% 00.99% 28889 472.50 { QhQs }

he probably doesn't even have that many 3x hands in his preflop range, but i was generous to him. add in a motherload of flush draws and you probably have like 65%-70%. i'm 4betting and looking to get it in here.

[daviddem]

I agree that we are probably ahead even after his minraise, but the question really is: if we 4b is he going to call or stack off with 8x or even 99 or TT or his flush draws? Well OK, since he seems to be as loose as they come, why not: if he does not do that, then nobody does, I guess...

Thanks for the tip with Pokerstove, it works!

[tyrn]

I wouldn't shove, I would min raise him back lol. I expect he would raise again with all his draws and air and medium strength hands.. basically his whole range. Mostly because 67 vpip and 1.8 AF.

[supa]

I should add that if you've seen him do this with A8, K8 type hands, then by all means get it in however you can.

[supa]

Meh, your missing my point and that's cool. I myself need to stop spewing chips to fish that I don't have solid reads on. If op is having the same problem then I think he's cool to fold these spots and not see much of a difference in his winrate when he's folding wrong.

[Imthenewfish]

okay, this isnt a spot where its 'spewing to fish'

[supa]

I concede. You're probably right.

[cleanup.that]

Its not TERRIBLE to fold here against an unknown no matter what the stakes are. If you don't know how he plays then you don't know how he plays.

Having said that, and also taking into consideration stakes/stats I'm generally labeling these types of players as baddies and I get this in while being happy about it.

Also, remember since he is an unknown your pokerstove ranges can be off by a pretty large margin. You could be giving him way too much credit or not enough credit at all. Save pokerstove for situations where you have a good feel for how players will play certain hands/situations.

[Icanhastreebet]

Its not TERRIBLE to fold here against an unknown no matter what the stakes are. If you don't know how he plays then you don't know how he plays.

Having said that, and also taking into consideration stakes/stats I'm generally labeling these types of players as baddies and I get this in while being happy about it.

Also, remember since he is an unknown your pokerstove ranges can be off by a pretty large margin. You could be giving him way too much credit or not enough credit at all. Save pokerstove for situations where you have a good feel for how players will play certain hands/situations.

lol @ folding v an unknown here like ever. just lol

get it in, don't cib like someone said though that's retarded unless u know he'll go crazy w/ his draws and shit but giving him correct odds to call is pretty fin horrible.

[rpm]

what the fuck is going on here?

[supa]

what the fuck is going on here?

Basically I started some crap because I need to fold more and it took off. My bad.

[supa]

The funny part here is that I was just gonna help op out with his pokerstove question and figured I should comment on the hand. But seriously, this guy shows up w/ 63o almost every time when I play him.

[daviddem]

Here is the spoiler. I think if you fold here, you pretty much fold all your big pairs every time someone raises you. I think one of the keys here is, as rpm said above, he doesn't have that many 3's in his range.

Hero raises to $4.84 (All-In), SB calls $3.89

Turn: ($10.13) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($10.13) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $10.13 | Rake: $0.67

Results:
SB had J, J (two pair, Jacks and threes).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and threes).
Outcome: Hero won $9.46

[rpm]

nicely played sir

[daven]

fuck, his range is A3, K3s, 23s, 34s, 35s, 88+. Stove it.
oh, and he may find a rare fold with 99-JJ, but he ain't ever folding trips