Who's the sucker?

[caddie444]

Let's say you have a friend named 'Spoon' (unlikely I know ) who suggests a game. In this game, to start, Spoon removes the 4 Kings and 4 Aces from a deck of cards. He says he will give you 2 of the kings, and that you may keep them as your hole-cards. He will then place the other 6 cards (the 4 aces and the remaining 2 kings) face down on a table, and mix them up.

He will then choose at random 2 of the face-down cards which will become his hole-cards. Once he picks 2 of the remaining cards, he puts the 4 unpicked face-down cards back into the deck, and shuffles. At this point he turns over his hand, you deal out a flop, turn, and river, and whoever wins at showdown between your pocket kings and his hand wins $100 from the other player.

Who's the sucker in this game, you or Spoony?

[Imthenewfish]

I think im missing something here. there are 4 kings and 4 aces, we get 2 kings, and spoon gets 2 other cards. This leaves 4 cards left? how do we deal out a river?

[caddie444]

I think im missing something here. there are 4 kings and 4 aces, we get 2 kings, and spoon gets 2 other cards. This leaves 4 cards left? how do we deal out a river?

The remaining 4 cards get put back into the original 52 card deck and shuffled before dealing the flop, turn, and river.

[philly and the phanatics]

The remaining 4 cards get put back into the deck and shuffled before dealing the flop, turn, and river.

with 4 aces and 2 kings left over

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK, and 1 combo of KK so i guess hes the sucker cause its more likely for you to be dominating him (KK>AK) than him dominating you (KK<AA)

[Icanhastreebet]

wat, if people have trouble wif this I'm leaving the forum.

[jyms]

your the sucker, because your dealing the flop, turn and river

[Sup3rM4N]

Spoon is...cuz his fkin name is spoon!

[ButtonMash]

His hole cards are chosen from AAAAKK.
Chances of AA are 4/6 x 3/5 = 12/30 = 40%
Chances of KK are 2/6 x 1/5 = 2/30 = 10%
Remainder of times he has AK.
Ignoring straights and flushes for now, he needs an A to win with AK
Chances of hitting an ace on F,T, or R are 3/48 x 5 = 31.25%.
So chances of hitting an A when he has AK are 50% of 31.25 % = 15.625%
So far he wins 40% with AA and 15.625 with AK = 55.625%.
Add a bit more for straights and flushes and he is a clear winner.
Sets will cancel out except when 'set over set' giving him a further edge.
By my reckoning Spoon is not the sucker. Even if I'm mathematically wrong I'm politcally correct.

[Sup3rM4N]

with 4 aces and 2 kings left over

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK, and 1 combo of KK so i guess hes the sucker cause its more likely for you to be dominating him (KK>AK) than him dominating you (KK<AA)

(6/15*0.82)+(8/15*0.31)+(1/15*0.5)

[chatzilla]

I'll have a go

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK and 1 combo of KK

I'm gonna say spoon dealt me KcKs so we can keep track of the suits

so all spoons combos are
AdAc,AhAc,AsAc,AhAd,AsAd,AsAh,KdKh,AdKd,AhKh,AcKd, AcKh,AdKh,AhKd,AsKd,AsKh

so I'm the sucker because spoon has 52.707% equity

[mbiz]

stoved it, spoon wins

[Tasha]

"I am now going to stake you some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to come to you and show you a nice, brand new deck of cards on which the seal has not yet been broken. This man is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. Now son, do not bet this man, for as sure as you stand there, you are going to wind up with an earful of cider" - Guys and Dolls

[oskar]

He has:

8 * AK with 0.31 equity
6 * AA with 0.81
1 * KK with 0.5

[8*(0.31*100 - 0.69*100) + 6*(0.81*100 - 0.19*100) + (0)]/15 =
[-304 + 372 + 0]/15 = 4.53
Spoon wins $4.53 each game.
Unsuprisingly, you are the sucker.

Buttonmash - it's easier to just use some Monte Carlo program to figure out post flop odds (ie pokerstove). You are ignoring straights and flushes. Plus you can't just multiply odds and hope the number will be close.

The chance of hitting one ace is not 3/48*5, it's:
[3/48 * 45/47 * 44/46 * 43/45 * 42/44] * 5
Which means you were somewhat close, but still completely wrong. If you were to play a board with 25 streets - with your math you would be 156% to hit an ace... which is not possible. Unless you are a baseball coach or something.

Then there's the chance you flop two aces, or the times you hit an ace and he hits a king, etc. Too much work. Just stove it.

[StarGrinder]

wat, if people have trouble wif this I'm leaving the forum.

LOL, see ya then. Some of the n00b BCers probably don't even know how to spell pokerstove. No offense.

[oskar]

If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either.

But whatever makes you feel better than everyone else... knock yourselves out guys.

[OngBonga]

kkaaaa

hc1... a 10/15 k 5/15
hc2... (a) a 9/15 k 6/15 (k) a 12/15 k 3/15

aa - 10/15 * 9/15 = 6/15
kk - 5/15 * 3/15 = 1/15
thus... ak 8/15

so...
Spoon has AK 8 times in 15, or 80 times in 150.
Of these 80 hands, we win 55 times, spoon 25 times. We're 30 wins up.

Spoon has AA 60 times in this sample of 150, he wins 49 times and we win 11 times. He's 38 wins up.

KK vs KK is obviously equal equity.

So, in a sample of 150 hands, it seems spoon is taking $800.

[OngBonga]

Sorry for deleting then reposting, I thought my maths was flawed, but it seems good after all!

[oskar]

It's slightly confusing, but it works. One of us went wrong somewhere tho cuz we're almost 20% apart. Could easily be me.

[OngBonga]

I didn't see anyone else's solution before I had a go, I didn't want to be influenced. We're not worlds apart, something like $120 over 150 hands. I think mine is an approximation, I was expecting a margin of error of around $20 or so, but it might be more.

[StarGrinder]

If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either.

But whatever makes you feel better than everyone else... knock yourselves out guys.

LOL wat? I suck just as much as everyone else around here but I don't understand how is this even remotely difficult?

[spoonitnow]

154,107,360 games 0.125 secs 1,232,858,880 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

[philly and the phanatics]

lol blast, weird how we can be beating more of his combos but i guess cause we are more crushed when behind than he is when hes behind that it makes up for the few more times he has AK when we have KK

[oskar]

LOL wat? I suck just as much as everyone else around here but I don't understand how is this even remotely difficult?

It was more directed towards yaawn. But you jumped on the bandwagon.
This is difficult if you've never done this before. Even if you know how to do it, it's really good practice, and I'd like to see more of these threads in the BC. This is not going to happen if you windowlickers keep spamming these threads with derogatory babble. Either participate or stfu and gtfo, please.

[StarGrinder]

Ok the windowlicker reference made me LOL irl

154,107,360 games

Hand 0: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }

Are we just gambling once or is this a 'best of' series?

[spoonitnow]

Ok the windowlicker reference made me LOL irl



Are we just gambling once or is this a 'best of' series?

It doesn't matter.

[StarGrinder]

That sir spoon, was a joke.

But, wait... what if villain spots us a $100 and we go best of 7? Watchya, whatchya, whatchya gonna do?


Edit: Sorry, I've been drinking and should probably head on over to the commune.

[Johnny Cashout]

Spoon is...cuz his fkin name is spoon!

lol

[spoonitnow]

That sir spoon, was a joke.

But, wait... what if villain spots us a $100 and we go best of 7? Watchya, whatchya, whatchya gonna do?


Edit: Sorry, I've been drinking and should probably head on over to the commune.

My bad. No offense but all of the random BC names run together unless I talk to you regularly.

[supa]

LOL, see ya then. Some of the n00b BCers probably don't even know how to spell pokerstove. No offense.

Is that like a pizza oven?

Anyway, I sux at the maths so I'll practice on oscars formula a bit. Obviously the stove numbers tell the story so I must be the sucker. Sucka.

[caddie444]

Yah Spoon's obv not the Sucker.

The point of this post was threefold:

A) It's a good math lesson for noob's

B) About pokerstove:

If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either...This is difficult if you've never done this before. Even if you know how to do it, it's really good practice

C) To show that KK is actually behind in equity vs a range of KK+, AKo, AKs

154,107,360 games 0.125 secs 1,232,858,880 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

weird how we can be beating more of his combos but i guess cause we are more crushed when behind than he is when hes behind that it makes up for the few more times he has AK when we have KK

Oh and to show that anyone who participates in a game Spoon suggests/creates is obv a sucka

[ButtonMash]

I wanna thank OP and all those who take the time to post this type of question. It is much appreciated.