2NL FR AK shove or not

[!Luck]

No reads, just sat down.

But I assume he is passive and I tend to take a very simple line of b/f for 3 streets and to get it in on the river. I even focused to make sure that my bet sizing allows an easy river shove. I hate hate hate the river card. though I wouldn't be too happy with a T,J,Q.

This is a simple range question, giving that I don't have reads but this is an average 2nl player I am going to assume he calls too much preflop and is passive thus.

77, AQs-A4s, AQo (This is the range that he can have on the river) Maybe I can throw in some sets and remove A9s,Ato, which make this not a bet add in an AKs/o. But i want an opinion if this is shovable or not. The reason I only think of a shove is because if he is going to call a Half PSB with AT he will call a full sized bet, but at the same time the one card straight opportunity might make him less likely to call his weaker aces. Also, even passive people would bet the river with a straight. I feel there is a strong argument to be made for shoving here, but I can't quite construct a realistic range that makes this EZ mode shove.

The above range I quoted is EXACTLY 50-50.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($2.20)
MP2 ($1.20)
CO ($1.22)
Button ($1.55)
SB ($5.06)
BB ($2.92)
UTG ($1.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 1 fold, CO calls $0.08, 1 fold, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.26) 8, A, 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, SB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.66) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.46, SB calls $0.46

River: ($1.58) 6 (2 players)
SB checks,

Total pot: $1.58 | Rake: $0.07

[spoonitnow]

While AJo and ATo are in his range a significant non-zero percentage of the time, A4s, A5s, A6s, and A8s aren't in his range nearly as often as you're suggesting they are.

[StarGrinder]

Considering the passive play of the standard 2nl villain, I'm going for 3 streets of value. Worse Aces are calling down here way more often than 2 pair. Don't like the 6 much though but villain checks so wtf. Checking back this river when you're ahead more often than not is a huge leak and whether you shove or not should have been decided on the turn.

[Micro2Macro]

lol

where's all the 7x combos in his range you missed? take your showdown

[daven]

hero checks the fuck behind. Not even close.
Sure, you're ahead of his range - but how are you doing vs his calling range? or are you turning tptk into a bluff? i don't get it

[!Luck]

Hmm. I think spoon is right that he has a lot fewer Ax in his range that I put him on. So the real question is he calling me with a9? Not at computer but I'll try to put together a street by street range. Also, I suspect most people at micro stakes shove their straights, but that's assumption is hard for me to test.

!luck

[Micro2Macro]

no the real question isn't should he call with A9. thats only one hand you beat....and there are multiple others that beat you. so the real question is 'CAN I BLUFF HERE?'

[spoonitnow]

no the real question isn't should he call with A9. thats only one hand you beat....and there are multiple others that beat you. so the real question is 'CAN I BLUFF HERE?'

This wouldn't be nearly as funny if it was someone else's thread.

[!Luck]

Well, i struggled with this decision, but seems I stumbled correctly on a check. I feel most of the time I post I do the exact opposite of consensus.

[!Luck]

m2m, i don't think people at 2nl will drop their two pairs even on boards like this. so i can't bluff here.

[daven]

m2m, i don't think people at 2nl will drop their two pairs even on boards like this. so i can't bluff here.

agreed.
Nice check behind dude

[paratrooper99]

I think the question here:
Is a bet/fold river profitable?

Considering villians calling ranges during
Flop Ax, 67,68,65, possible overs or over pair(less likely)
Turn Ax, any and all straight combos
River Considering he checks,
I feel that he has a made straight and/or 2 pair less than 20% of the time. I also think he will call down a properly sized value bet with AQ,AJ,AT, and A9 enough to make a bet/fold on river profitable.

[daven]

I also think he will call down a properly sized value bet with AQ,AJ,AT, and A9 enough to make a bet/fold on river profitable.

so, hero has less than pot behind. How exactly are you planning on properly sizing this bet?

[StarGrinder]

I find it interesting that everyone here thinks checking behind is the best play. And with that in mind, I'm probably betting too many rivers with some seriously thin value... like fucking kite string thin.

[Micro2Macro]

you have to beat at least 50% of your opponents calling range in order to make it a value bet.

[Icanhastreebet]

bet like 22cents

[caddie444]

you have to beat at least 50% of your opponents calling range in order to make it a value bet.

Bam, first link to my own thread, do this ---> http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...rs-182312.html

[StarGrinder]

you have to beat at least 50% of your opponents calling range in order to make it a value bet.

This much is obvious. I'm saying my ranges might be off when villain check/calls every street. I would think this hand is pretty close to 50% depending how fishy villain is... and it's 2nl so, yeah.

[Micro2Macro]

it's 2nl it's just 2nl guys everyone sucks at 2nl lets just bet

...

this is the kind of attitude that leads to making mistakes. you didn't put him on a range, you implied you're going to bet because he sucks. don't let your ego cloud your judgment regarding poker decisions. its a huge leak and its real difficult to play with (trust me I know because I pretty much have it).

[spoonitnow]

Bet $0.26 to induce.

[Micro2Macro]

Bet $0.26 to induce.

I lol'd irl

[Carroters]

Pot control to induce pot control.