AKo UTG - FR 2NL

[Shifter]

I don't have any stats on this villain (MP3), but from the few hands I had played with him, he bet big and tended to raise PF when he had good hands but had also been called out on a couple of bluffs. Therefore I didn't have too many reads.
My PF and Flop bets were very weak, I realise that - my main thoughts were of position and of seeing what he would do and whether it would give me any indication as to his hand. I'm thinking a bigger bet would have been more appropriate - perhaps 3/4xBB PF and double that on the Flop?

Flop - Flopped a pair and a couple of mid/low nondescript cards. His bet at this time isn't massive, but it's substantially bigger. He could also have flopped a pair - perhaps even an A, though I had TPTK. He could possibly have made a set, but I thought he may have re-raised a larger amount if so.

I estimated his range at being something along the lines of {JJ-55,KJs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,KJo,QTo+,JTo,T9o,9 8o,87o,76o}.

Turn - I was doubtful as to whether the 9h helped him. This play was reminiscent of one or two previous rounds of his, when he's bluffed. Decided to call and see what he'd do on the River.

River - I wasn't sure if betting aggressively here was the way to go, so I checked. He could have missed a couple of overcards and be trying to bluff his way through, made a set or made a straight. If he had really hit a set/straight, I thought he might have bet bigger, given my check. Hmm.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($3.13)
Button ($1.97)
SB ($1.98)
BB ($2.04)
Hero (UTG) ($1.88)
UTG+1 ($2.02)
MP1 ($2.28)
MP2 ($2.19)
MP3 ($3.49)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
Hero bets $0.04, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.04, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.11) 4, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.04, MP3 raises to $0.18, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.47) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.10, MP3 raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

River: ($1.07) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.68, Hero ?

Total pot: $2.43 | Rake: $0.16

I have 82.759% equity against the above range.

fraction bet size/(bet size + pot size) = 0.68/(1.07+0.68) = 38.85% which means this would be a +EV call. (Please correct me if I've screwed it up somewhere - new at this).

Any and all comments regarding my thinking welcomed.

[sil693]

I estimated his range at being something along the lines of {JJ-55,KJs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,KJo,QTo+,JTo,T9o,9 8o,87o,76o}.

where has this come from? why do you think he is raising the flop with hands such a KJo, 910o and most of the other hands included in that range?

bet sizing needs to be bigger too, as you mentioned. 4xbb + 1bb per limper is a good place to start. postflop - stop being a whimsy and bet your hand strong. we have TPTK and there are a few draws out there which we want to charge.

[Shifter]

I was thinking he may have missed some broadway cards. Also, I mentioned him being called out on a couple of bluffs with mediocre hands. Should I not include those possibilities when estimating his range?

4xBB + 1BB per limper would definitely have been a better move than what I did - thanks. Had I bet 10xBB on the flop, I could probably have taken control of the hand (in hindsight).

[JR9477]

You bet in terms of % of the pot, usually somewhere between 50-100% depending on your opponent(s) calling tendencies.

Working out someone's range is a step by step process, it should be changing as the hand progresses. Having just a range for the flop doesn't isn't any good at the river.

Your bets are incredibly weak, usually I assume people who make such small bets usually have weak hands (or don't know how to bet their made hands), and if I'm wrong it didn't cost me much to find out. (I usually have some amount of equity vs their range when I call too)

It's hard to think he's 3barreling junk as a bluff, you did say he bluffs mediocre hands. Also, I might be bluffing if I can get you to consider folding TPTK too!

[linaker]

Its hard to think that your TPTK is good on the river, when he has raised on every street. He seems anxious to get more money into the pot and I don't think he would play a flush draw or a weaker ace like this. Even though your pre flop raise is so small, I can't see him turning up with 75 or 53 either. It looks like he has A6/A4, a set or is bluffing increasingly desparately.

However, your bets are so small that his raises are about what you should have been betting. It looks like you might have a flush draw, so he could well have a weaker ace. Bigger bets can save you money, as it makes hand reading easier.

[Shifter]

Thanks for the comments, all. I'll certainly take them into consideration in further analysis' and indeed, future hands.

If anyone is interested, I ended up calling the River bet - he was holding pocket Sevens.

[scfc_andy15]

If there is one thing you should take out of this, it is to raise pre-flop properly especially at these stakes 4x plus x for every limper is the minumum. PLEASE DONT MIN RAISE.