Return after short hiatus

[kfaess]

Hey guys,

Its been a while since I've posted on FTR ... I've been extremely busy with school work and other things going on in my life. I also have not been playing too much poker in the last 5 months although I have managed to move up from 10NL to 25NL. Anyway, its good to be back and some thoughts on these hands would be great:

This one is interesting:
His stats are something like 17/10 over small sample of ~20 hands. I wasn't thinking this at the table, but I guess if we can include hands other than aces in his range about as often as aces, then this is a clear call. This could be questionable given his nitty stats, but after only 20 hands with the guy I like calling.


SB ($26.10)
BB ($24.65)
UTG ($28.50)
MP ($24.85)
CO ($39.40)
Hero (Button) ($30.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
2 folds, CO bets $1, Hero raises $3, 1 fold, BB raises $24.40 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero


Hand 2:
This was played against an opponent who was running 28/26/4.6 AF over 140 hands.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($45.65)
Button ($13.15)
Hero (SB) ($25.45)
BB ($27.60)
UTG ($46.25)
MP ($24.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
UTG bets $0.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) 2, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($12.95) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $7, Hero ???

My main question on this hand is whether or not to shove the river for value (although comments on all streets are welcome). The only worse hands I can see calling this bet are smaller sets (unlikely) and higher overpairs (also pretty unlikely). Its also unclear whether or not he would fold an overpair to a river shove since there is a good chance I have a flush when I raise the river. He might reason I would raise a flush on an earlier street to prevent higher flushes from drawing out on me. I thought much of his range was bluffs and semibluffs, hence the checking.

[Pelion]

Hand 1: After only 20 hands he could have folded every one and Id still call this. Its late position where the action happens and its only 100bbs deep. He also shoves rather than 4bets to a normal size, which is more likely to be something like AK than AA. Nothing about this makes me want to fold.

Hand 2: He can definitly have overpairs and sets. He can probably have any of the AK-ATs flushes as well as like KQ, KJ, maybe some more broadway flushes. On the river if he calls wider than flushes, overpairs and sets then raising obviously gets better and better.

Firstly, its important that we hold the Th. That cuts out quite a few broadway flush combos.
Secondly, its important to realise that for every flush hand (e.g. AKs) there is only one combo, whereas for every overpair there are 6, and for every set there are 3. This makes a flopped flush an incredibly small part of his range.

Anyway, we need more than 50% equity against his calling range in order to raise. I started to stove it to see how many hh hands he would need to raise from EP to make raising bad and pretty much gave up. I finally managed to get below 50% by saying the only overpair he calls with is AA, and still gave him all these combos of flushes.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.649% 48.65% 00.00% 18 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 51.351% 51.35% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AA, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, 4h3h }

So yeah, if he calls the river with AA-QQ, then a raise is still profitable even when he has almost every possible combo in his range :P.

More realistically we will have something like this

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.767% 69.77% 00.00% 30 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 30.233% 30.23% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h }

Ship it.

[kmind]

More realistically we will have something like this

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.767% 69.77% 00.00% 30 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 30.233% 30.23% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h }

Sorry but the bold parts made me laugh.

OP - Spoon has a thread on analyzing all-ins that I suggest you search for. It's probably on page 2 or 3 in the BC. Anyways, you you should call this preflop even if he ends up shoving AA, KK, QQ 50% of the time and AK 25% of the time. If you have some more hands on him then yeah it definitely gets closer to a fold.

Hand 2 - I trust Pelion on this one.

[spoonitnow]

[bigspenda73]

snap

snap

[XTR1000]

Im so leading river in #2

[kfaess]

Thanks for the replies, I guess these spots were simpler than I originally thought.

Im so leading river in #2

The reason I checked is because when I was playing I thought his bluffing frequency was pretty high given his AF and stats, and since there was no fourth heart/no 4 (most semibluffs don't get there) then I felt we would get more value by inducing his bluffs to fire a third barrel than we would by leading and getting value from his legit hands while folding all his bluffs. Not to mention he's going to bet some hands on the river that he would call with anyway since we checked all 3 streets.

[spoonitnow]

[surviva316]

The reason I checked is because when I was playing I thought his bluffing frequency was pretty high given his AF and stats, and since there was no fourth heart/no 4 (most semibluffs don't get there) then I felt we would get more value by inducing his bluffs to fire a third barrel than we would by leading and getting value from his legit hands while folding all his bluffs. Not to mention he's going to bet some hands on the river that he would call with anyway since we checked all 3 streets.

just 'cause someone's aggressive over a 140 hand sample, doesn't mean their bluffing frequency is higher than their calling frequency on every street on every board. 1) there are more sets/99 type hands in his range that we beat but call a river bet than there are semi bluffs 2) who's to say he's even continuing with his semi bluffs because a) nobody triple barrels at 25nl and b) the Ts is not a great card to barrel and c) even if he thinks that you have a weak range that includes whiffed draws that are going to c/f, he may just check it back with AhJx for SD value