Go with your gut or go with the math?

[thedarwinfish]

Here's a hand from last night's session:

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3.84)
UTG+1 ($2.85)
Hero ($5.14)
BTN ($2.85)
SB ($2.94)
BB ($5.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.29, BB calls $0.28, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.24, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB goes all-in $5.05, Hero goes all-in $3.34

Turn: ($11.09, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($11.09, 2 players, 2 all-in)

This was maybe my 3rd or 4th hand at this table and maybe my 1st hand against this particular villain. So no stats/reads.

Given the preflop action I've given him a range of 66,77,TT+ and maybe possibly AKs,AKo, maybe even A7?. I guess it's possible to even add 67 and 2s in there. But given the preflop action, I think it's unlikely.

At the time I felt like he hit his set… but given the pre-flop action I felt like I had to include the overpairs to the board. Would I call with 6s and 7s vs. a UTG+1 raise and re-raise of 15xbb? Haven’t decided that part yet.

Running the numbers, Pokerstove gives me 79% equity against the range I’ve given him and if my math is correct I’m getting 53% [ 3.34/(3.34+2.94) = 53.18% ] so my call is profitable against the range given. It is still profitable even if I remove the AKs,AKo out of his range. This gives me 73% equity in the hand, still above the 53% needed to call.

So assuming my math is right, it's a +EV call.

In my head at that time was a battle between my brain telling me that he could be shoving here with a) A7s having caught a piece of the flop and thinking I'm getting frisky with AK/AQ, b) shoving here with an overpair to the board as I might do if I were him (I've lost my fair share of pots with my mid-high pocket pairs being crushed by a better pair with nothing but unders on the board), or c) a set.

But my gut thought he hit his set. But the thing is my gut almost ALWAYS feels like I'm beat.

I guess my question is how do you reconcile your (my) natural inclination to always assume you're beat? I'm pretty worried about monsters under the bed. I'm always worried someone has come in with two cards that I could never put them on.

Do I trust my read on his entire range and make the call/fold based on that and the math or do I go with my gut and fold (or call if my gut is telling me it feels good in a spot)?

[JKDS]

i dont get it. if you think his range is only sets then you play against that range. if you think it includes other hands then you include those. its always math one way or another, the only thing that ever changes is what range you give to villain.

now if you're at a constant impass in determining a range then a great solution to that is post a hand with reads and find out what others think that range might be.

ie this hand, villain might play JJ-QQ this way, probably plays 77,22, and 66 this way as well. Maybe hes silly enough to play 76s this way. idk, but it seems like his shoving range here is only hands that beat you plus the occasional QQ.

[argash]

Raise more pre-flop like .4 to .6

[Chopper]

This was maybe my 3rd or 4th hand at this table and maybe my 1st hand against this particular villain. So no stats/reads.

nuff said to go with math over your gut here. call the shove twice on sunday.

[tomato paste carnage]

With no reads, go with the numbers.