A rare 25NL triple barrel.

[Carroters]

No reads on villain, only 8 hands at the table. He's been open limping though I assume he isn't great.

On the turn I think I fold out his 55-99 type hands and random flats, I also get value from unpaired flush draws.

I was planning to shut down on most rivers only now I think I can fold out AJ QJ and also all the pps that floated 2 streets.

The only hands I'm really afraid of is KhTh, JT, KJ or slow played trips.

FWIW, I hardly ever 3-barrel at these stakes, but felt this was a decent spot. I mean there's always the risk that he can't fold a jack here at all in which case it's pretty bad since when he calls the turn that's probably a good amount of his range. Possibly, I should reserve these sort of plays for when I have a read that he can fold marginal hands.

Btw, I like the turn bet because I feel there's more middling pairs in his range than there is hands with jacks that will call preflop + we get values from fds. JTs-AJs KJo AJo = 32 combos (I think) 44-99 = 31 combos then theres his fds, random floats and the fact that he needs to fold less than half the time for it to be profitable anyway.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($24.75)
BB ($23.05)
UTG ($27)
Hero (MP) ($25.25)
CO ($53.90)
Button ($11.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 3, 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, CO calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.55) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.70, CO calls $3.70

River: ($12.95) K (2 players)
Hero bets $8.10,

[surviva316]

described villain also has TT-JJ, A3 and QJ in his turn range the majority of the time and QQ isn't all that rare.

i also think you underestimate how many hands in his range call the river because A) i think he's calling with AJ, JT, KJ like all the time and calling with QJ like at least half the time, and B) this river actually hit like all of his turned combo draws (AhKh, AhQh, KhQh).

so i don't think turn is bad, it's just closer than you described in op, and i might prefer to do it with a few outs, but i don't think river is good (unless you think he makes it there with split pairs, in which case turn is bad)

[clvacva]

Forgetting 9T of hearts QT of hearts AT of hearts which can find a fold on the river.

Ummm not sure about the turn....... The ten like surviva316 said gives him more draws plus some pairs.....and he aint folding a Jack maybe 99/88/77.

if he's an unknown you're going to run into trips sometimes and you're going to be like HE HAS A3 AND HE DIDN'T RAISE? FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUU

[Micro2Macro]

It's thin but I like it I guess.

[Carroters]

Idk, I liked it at the time, but now the river seems a bit shitty since we really can't be confident that he can fold a jack here.

Although it doesn't matter, he called 3 streets including river with 88 here. I got pwnzered soul read obv.

that's why you don't do it vs. unknowns
do it vs. people who you have established as non calling stations LIKE DUH OBVIOUSLY

[bigspenda73]

shove river

[surviva316]

Idk, I liked it at the time, but now the river seems a bit shitty since we really can't be confident that he can fold a jack here.

Although it doesn't matter, he called 3 streets including river with 88 here. I got pwnzered soul read obv.

i'm not terribly surprised.

[Micro2Macro]

its not like its the worst result, you now have a sick line on his play and if you should be able to value pwn his ass along with everyone else who saw you do the bluff.

its not like its the worst result, you now have a sick line on his play and if you should be able to value pwn his ass along with everyone else who saw you do the bluff.

you can already do that at 25NL without having bluffed ever in your life

[bigspenda73]

seriously, hate your river bet size

[Carroters]

seriously, hate your river bet size

I wanted him to be able to fold a J so didn't want to make it much less. Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean please?

[griffey24]

seriously, hate your river bet size

I wanted him to be able to fold a J so didn't want to make it much less. Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean please?

He's not saying bet less, he's saying jam. There's no legit value hand you would have here that would be so small and not go all-in instead.

If you insist on bluffing here, then go all-in. Whether or not the bluff is good or not is villain dependent and would need more reads.

[bigspenda73]

ya pretty much, also the fact that two posts above that one I said shove river, probably a good indication of my thoughts as well.

griff in the BC.....yeabuddy