Straight vs low paired board, should i shove or call river?

[thejesusfish]

The villain was playing 17/7/60 over 30 hands. I limped because i thought i was getting good odds if sb completed with my suited ace. I tried to play it aggressively instead of slow playing so i bet near enough pot on flop/turn. My first thought when he check called flop and turn was a overpair like 66-99, seeing as he prob would have raised TT+.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($5.08)
Hero (Button) ($12.70)
SB ($5.02)
BB ($2.50)
UTG ($13.47)
UTG+1 ($15.33)
MP1 ($4.99)
MP2 ($4.04)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, A
4 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.05, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.17) 2, 4, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.15, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.47) 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40

River: ($1.27) 9 (2 players)
CO bets $1.27, Hero raises to $12.10 (All-In), CO calls $3.21 (All-In)

Total pot: $10.23 | Rake: $0.68


I tried it out on poker stove using this range for the villain:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.443% 83.54% 01.90% 66 1.50 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 14.557% 12.66% 01.90% 10 1.50 { TT-22, ATs-A5s, AJo-A9o }

If i go by that it seems it was good to shove, but have i used a good range? I came up with this because he would generally limp low pocket pairs, and i guessed he would be raising high aces.

he doesn't play that many hands, I would just assume he's a nit and flat his river bet because we don't even have the nut straight and he seems aweful concerned with losing value

but you're doing his preflop range, not his river range
he never calls a shove ace high dude

[thejesusfish]

he doesn't play that many hands, I would just assume he's a nit and flat his river bet because we don't even have the nut straight and he seems aweful concerned with losing value

but you're doing his preflop range, not his river range
he never calls a shove ace high dude

Haha, ok, thought i was doing something wrong with that high a percentage.

I tried again, this time using pocket pairs 22-TT and a few suited connecters that he may be limping from there. I chose these because most would probably call down with a small over pair and maybe a few connecters that he may have been slowplaying a straight.

The main reason i shoved was because he was a bit of a shortish-stack and didnt have much behind after he put out the pot sized bet.

Board: 2s 3d 4h 3s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.444% 64.44% 00.00% 29 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 35.556% 35.56% 00.00% 16 0.00 { TT-22, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s }


Would you say thats a better estimate?

there's like 5% chance that he calls with 55-88 when you raise the river
54? lol?

you're putting in four bets in a limped pot
personally I'd fold AA to the river raise here, I don't know if this guy would, but I think his river raise calling range is probably trips or better
but you also left some hands out like A3

[philly and the phanatics]

and 93s which he could be limping with, you have a reallllly small sample to go off of with your stats so i dont think its fair to say that he would not limp some crap, maybe even 45 off....do you have any reads on the guy?