Weird line from supernit. What is his range?

[Pelion]

UTG is 15/8 after 60 hands. Ive been playing with him an hour and haven't seen him get out of line at all.

Button is 79/14 megawhale, and the reason I call preflop.

Hero is 23/20, haven't shown down anything particularly crazy so far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
MP (€2.61)
CO (€2)
Button (€1.76)
Hero (SB) (€2.05)
BB (€1.56)
UTG (€1.97)
Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
UTG bets €0.08, 2 folds, Button calls €0.08, Hero calls €0.07, 1 fold
Flop: (€0.26) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks
Turn: (€0.26) (3 players)
Hero bets €0.16, UTG raises to €0.44





What range can he legitimately check the flop 3 way, and then raise an offsuit 6 on the turn?

[Savy]

Flush, Good flush draw, AT+, KT+, 66. Could even have hit a set on the flop and was just scared someone had a flush if he's a nit. Even more so for things like AQ, AJ.

Does the same with JJ and QQ too, trying to get people to fold now he doesn't think they have a flush.

[Pelion]

Flush, two pair, set, a poor ace. a decent flush draw?

Try to put him on actual cards, rather than hand rankings. What cards could he play and have a flush? What cards could he play like this and be a poor ace?

[Savy]

Try to put him on actual cards, rather than hand rankings. What cards could he play and have a flush? What cards could he play like this and be a poor ace?

Yeah, I realise how half arsed a post it was and was editing as you posted

[eugmac]

Flush, Good flush draw, AT+, KT+, 66. Could even have hit a set on the flop and was just scared someone had a flush if he's a nit. Even more so for things like AQ, AJ.

Does the same with JJ and QQ too, trying to get people to fold now he doesn't think they have a flush.

I have to say this is range you picked out is bonkers.

A supernit who raised UTG with AT+ is certainly going to bet this flop, so you can remove that from the range. Questionable if KT is even in his UTG range at all, and it's a weird as hell line to take with a Kx, so you can remove that too. 66 is about the only hand I find plausible, as I can't think of two spades that he could be playing UTG running 15/8 @ 6max.

I'm also baffled.

[Savy]

It's not that strange, people get scared of flops like that for some reason in 3way pots.

[spoonitnow]

I would be inclined to fold pre-flop. If we were on the button with the whale on the cutoff, I would be a bit more inclined to call, but UTG has position on you and that's a big deal here with KQo.

Your turn bet is good, though I would have preferred a larger size. A lot of players would check here incorrectly.

This is almost always a strong hand slowplayed on the flop. He could have been trying to check-raise the button whale, or he could have been trying to trap with something like QsJs, but I don't believe he's ever folding here, and I don't think he ever has a hand that you beat.

[d0zer]

In game I wouldn't even waste the mental cycles to think about his range...quick fold & move on but if I had to think about it, the abso worst hand I imagine he'd do this with is AK and even that's questionable. 66 is possible.

Pre I think we have to 3bet to iso the BU megafish.

I also wouldn't call this guy a "supernit". We don't have a strong enough read of supernit after only 60 hands, we only know that he's leaning towards being a tighter player.

[Micro2Macro]

I don't see how its hard to put villain on a range of nut hands (flushes, sets, possibly Ax 2pairs) and 0 bluffs ever. You seem like you know how to do this. In fact, it seems to me like you KNOW this is his range, yet you seek justification for thinking along lines that could be exploited by someone who knew you were thinking this.

You fear being exploited and need to curb that fear so you can make the most +EV plays and get moving up. These dumb shits are thinking on level 1 and don't even consider thinking what you think they may have.

I would be very, very unconcerned about being exploited here by bet/folding your KQ. So what if you get bluffed like 10% of the time, it's still correct to fold, and by doing so, this guy is getting owned.

[daviddem]

+1 to folding pre, or maybe squeeze.

+1 that 15/8 after 60 hands is not necessarily a mega-nit, could just be a tagg who had a bad run of cards.

As played fold turn as has been said above.

OP, if he bets the flop, what do you do?

edit: incoming m2m 5000th post...

[Pelion]

Ok, just to clear things up a little, I think this is a very easy fold. I'm still interested in the guys range because it seems insanely thin and I thought this would be a good exercise. I am also not worried about being exploited here by either of them. I think it's worth thinking about ranges because I think it's usually a mistake to make any decision before thinking about ranges.

So what slowplayed nut hands can he have?

AA/KK/AK/44 should be really scared of giving a free card against 2 players when one of us is going to always have a spade, and should bet this 100%. This is even more true when we have a huge fish behind who is likely to call a wide range of straight draws/2 pairs/etc etc and I might be trying to c/r. Could he be making a weird 2NL slowplay here? Maybe, but very unlikely hands imo.

Flushes? - The most likely is QJs, but even that is a pretty unlikely PFR from this guy UTG. Flushes here are very unlikely imo.

Total air bluffs e.g. something like 33 - this guy might not even raise all PPs preflop and might just be stuck with broadways and medium+ pairs. If he has something like 33 here I'd guess he bluffs with it just about never.

Hands with equity turning into bluffs - QQ - possible I suppose, but I just don't see a player like this turning it into a bluff, especially 3 way and with a fish who is still likely to call with X J/Ax.

So what can he actually have? The only thing that makes sense to me here is 66. Now don't get me wrong. Super thin range doesn't automatically mean bluff against this guy, and I decided to fold after about 3 seconds. It's still worth thinking about what he can actually have, and I think it makes a good exercise for someone new to hand reading.

edit: If he bets flop I just fold. If the fish comes along too then I'm almost always behind, and if the fish doesn't come along then I'm slightly ahead/way behind, very often way behind, out of position, and every turn card is scary.

[Carroters]

Yeah squeezing preflop is probably decent. The nitty guy is likely gonna be tight to squeezes here and fold stuff like AQ AJ 99 etc.

Turn range = the absolute nuts.

[Hoopy]

When nits raise they always have it, probably has 66 or nut flush (QJss) exclusively.