2nl - KK bet size question

[Savy]

Villain is 22/16 no other info.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG ($1.97)
MP ($4.20)
Hero (CO) ($2)
Button ($2)
SB ($2.01)
BB ($2.06)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
2 folds, Hero bets $0.06, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) Q, 5, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.06, BB raises $0.22, Hero calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.57) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $0.39, Hero calls $0.39

River: ($1.35) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets ?

I've got $1.33 left in chips.

I have Villain on a range of A2-3, 44+, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, QT. Maybe a couple more straight draw type hands on the flop too.

Is the only real option to shove? I'm pretty sure I'm ahead at this stage but does worse call? I can see AQ, KQ but all lower PP he may have would probably fold.

I get overly scared when Villain checks the river to me.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The idea is to bet enough that he'll call with bluff catcher type hands.

The range you've put Villain on is pretty heavy in 2 pair+ hands, and some weak busted wheel draws. So you're never getting better to fold or worse to call against most of that range.

$0.30 or so will do, but you can't call a raise w/o a read that Villain c/r's river as a bluff.

[daviddem]

^^ I think it's good, I tend to check behind otr in spots like these because I convince myself that most of the worse hands fold and I am scared of sets/two pairs, I already got 2 streets of value out of my overpair, etc but i think it's a leak.

He would pretty much always bet sets and two pairs otr because you check back so often if he checks. When he checks he's got lots of bluffs/semi-bluffs with which he is giving up and lots of top pair hands that hope for a check back. Unsure he bets the turn with 2nd pairs though, but not impossible I guess.

But given the above reasoning, if you bet small and he shoves, it's got to be a bluff or a spasm with top pair most of the time though, so why fold.

Also he can't be planning to c/r as a bluff here, because mostly, once you bet anything 1/2 pot or above, you can't fold anymore. But maybe a very small bet can induce a bluff.

[rpm]

i just jam the river for value. i can see no reason why QT or flopped sets wouldn't just ship river given we've called down this far, so i'm thinking his range is something like QJ/KQ/AQ and a few combinations of missed straight draws (most of which won't call any sized bet)

[rpm]

elaborating on the above, the only "bluff-catchers" villain has in his range are basically the top of his range imo (his Qx), he will almost never have Tx given his line. plus our shoving range is the most bluff-heavy range we have on this river. so i think shoving is definitely best.

edit: ok he may C/C this river with 54s, but mostly when he check i think his range is capped and somewhat polarised, like this:

<-- missed draws, draw+weak pair hands ---------------- Qx,54s --->

the left "pole" of his range i expect to never call any size bet, the right side i can't see folding to any size given stack sizes.

[daviddem]

^^ Agree that top pair is his most likely holding (along with some bluffs), but very unsure he calls a shove with it.

I think $0.4 does it. Maybe up to half pot.

[rpm]

^^ Agree that top pair is his most likely holding (along with some bluffs), but very unsure he calls a shove with it.

why would he C/R flop, barrel turn (assumedly for value), only to C/F river with AQ/KQ type hands given these stack sizes and nearly the safest board runout he could hope for?

i should say, i haven't been playing for a while so my estimates could be well off.

edited to avoid convoluted sentences and such

[rpm]

hmm goddamn discussing this kind of stuff makes me want to play poker again

[daviddem]

I don't think we have that many bluffs in our range when we shove, first because there are no draws to speak of on the flop, and second because if we wanted to bluff, shoving is probably not the best sizing.

Also if he is 22/16, he has probably learned somewhere along the way not to stack off with top pair against non fishes (more so if he doesn't have top kicker). And also I don't know what his 3b % is, or what OP steal % is, but depending on these stats there is a non zero chance that he 3b AQ vs a CO open.

Didn't know you were not playing anymore.

[Cobra_1878]

Is the only real option to shove? I'm pretty sure I'm ahead at this stage but does worse call? I can see AQ, KQ but all lower PP he may have would probably fold.

This. Shoving for value against AQ/KQ type hands, I doubt villain has us beat when he checks the river.

[Savy]

$0.30 or so will do, but you can't call a raise w/o a read that Villain c/r's river as a bluff.

This is what I am always worried about. If I bet small I feel it's such an easy bluff for my opponent to shove and I'd end up calling even though I'd be completely lost as to whether it was a good or bad call.

I suppose at higher stakes I can combat that by betting exactly the same with my monster hands as I would with things like an overpair so that shoving can be a horrible idea for villain, but at 2nl I never feel like people are paying that much attention.

^^ I think it's good, I tend to check behind otr in spots like these because I convince myself that most of the worse hands fold and I am scared of sets/two pairs, I already got 2 streets of value out of my overpair, etc but i think it's a leak..

I tend to do the same but I feel like I miss out on value by doing so, so I thought I'd bet for value and I was just completely lost.

Also if he is 22/16, he has probably learned somewhere along the way not to stack off with top pair against non fishes (more so if he doesn't have top kicker). And also I don't know what his 3b % is, or what OP steal % is, but depending on these stats there is a non zero chance that he 3b AQ vs a CO open.

His 3bet = 4.2%, My steal = 42%

I feel he'd flat AQ rather than 3b it.


What I ended up doing was betting small enough that I felt he could call with worse, but large enough that if he shoved I felt like I was committed. So I went for $0.45, but I did feel this was a middle ground that didn't really accomplish either goal particularly well.

[daviddem]

This is what I am always worried about. If I bet small I feel it's such an easy bluff for my opponent to shove and I'd end up calling even though I'd be completely lost as to whether it was a good or bad call.

Is that not exactly what you did on the flop? You cbet rather small on this dry board to get value from second pairs to the board or even induce a bluff. I think this is correct, although I would tend to make it 0.7 or 0.8.

$0.45 is 1/3rd of the pot, I think it's a pretty decent size, he can still call that with his top pairs, and if you were bluffing with air it would probably also fold whatever second pairs he may have and his better air. And I don't think you can fold if he shoves over that, as I said he would almost always bet his sets/2p hands.

edit: don't take me for granted, yAAwn is probably going to be around soon and say that not shoving here is a leak or something to that effect

[Savy]

Is that not exactly what you did on the flop? You cbet rather small on this dry board to get value from second pairs to the board or even induce a bluff. I think this is correct, although I would tend to make it 0.7 or 0.8.

I have no idea why I bet 6 not 8. I usually do. Must have just miss-clicked on my raise button.

I'd tend to go with value rather than assuming that he will raise my c-bet with absolutely no reads. Usually like 60-70% which might not be the best sizing.

[spoonitnow]

I'm of the opinion that shoving is the best play here from both an exploitative and balance standpoint since you absolutely destroy his calling range on the river.

[daviddem]

It can be a good play to bluff-raise the cbets of players who cbet too much, on boards that look like it missed their range, more so when they have sizing tells.

There is a non-zero chance that it is what your villain wanted to do here.

[daviddem]

I'm of the opinion that shoving is the best play here from both an exploitative and balance standpoint since you absolutely destroy his calling range on the river.

Told you . If he says it, shove then, and forget my babble above.

[sam1FTR]

Yeah I would definitely just throw it all in and hope they call with a mediocre-type hand

[Icanhastreebet]

Pretty much the easiest shove ever. I don't know why you guys would value cut yourselves. Even if he binked a T and would call that 100% of the time to a small bet you still gain more getting called a smaller % of the time for your entire stack. If he is c/cing or c/ring a set just take a note and be on your way.

[FlowJoe]

Shove, hold breath, BB check on river weak. You win 70+%

[Pelion]

I have Villain on a range of A2-3, 44+, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, QT. Maybe a couple more straight draw type hands on the flop too.

I think you have a tendancy to give really really wide ranges to villains. Do you really think a hand like 66 is going to c/r this flop often? Is TT going to c/r the flop and fire the turn often? This guy doesn't look particularly aggro. Is he likely to be random 2 street spew-bluffing AJ with no reads?

A whole lot of the range you've given him are either pure bluffs, or mid-value hands that he have decided to turn themselves into a bluff. I think you need to start by assuming villains will play their cards fairly honestly, and then adjust when you start to see people getting getting out of line. Most of the time people bet, it means they think they are winning. Middle pairs/TPWK will very often be trying to get to showdown cheaply.

[Savy]

I think you have a tendancy to give really really wide ranges to villains. Do you really think a hand like 66 is going to c/r this flop often? Is TT going to c/r the flop and fire the turn often? This guy doesn't look particularly aggro. Is he likely to be random 2 street spew-bluffing AJ with no reads?

A whole lot of the range you've given him are either pure bluffs, or mid-value hands that he have decided to turn themselves into a bluff. I think you need to start by assuming villains will play their cards fairly honestly, and then adjust when you start to see people getting getting out of line. Most of the time people bet, it means they think they are winning. Middle pairs/TPWK will very often be trying to get to showdown cheaply.

Yeah you're probably right, whenever I assign a range I'm aware I do tend to price in pocket pairs fairly cheaply. Thanks for pointing it out though I'll probably be more aware as a result.