plan a hand

[mondayscool]

BTN: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
SB: $10.45 (104.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $11.32 (113.2 bb)
MP: $15.72 (157.2 bb)
CO: $15.99 (159.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, MP folds, CO calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.55) 2 A 3 (2 players)

villain is 33/15, 0 fold to 3bet, 22% fold to cb (out of 9) roughly 100 hands

so what's your plan here for the hand?

mine (likely full of retarded reasoning):
i personally value bet OTF, like 50-60% pot to get calls from something like 88-KK.
OTT I bet again for calls from the same range 50-60% pot
OTR is where I get lost. is it best to B, C/C, or C/F? by the river has his range narrowed down to aces that just aren't going to fold? if we bet, how big? like 30-40% to induce weaker calls?

obviously I shut down if I meet resistance

[rpm]

i'd definitely be going for at least one street of value. probably bet flop $1.1 and take it from there. it sucks C/Fing a lot of turns + rivers though if villain is the type to float or try to steal pots. any reads or impressions of villain regarding that?

[MadMojoMonkey]

C-bet flop $1.00 will probably get those calls without committing you to more if Villain raises OTF, which is a clear fold. This board is relatively dry. There is a straight out there, but not many villains play 54 in 3-bet pots. So really it's more like Ace,rag,rag.

If Villain calls OTF, then I race for cheap showdown. I'm not stacking off on this one unless a K spikes, obv.

[daviddem]

I don't like cbetting. It's very doubtful you get value from lower PP given the huge number of aces in your range and nothing better ever folds. I prefer to check. c/c one street if villain has bluffing tendencies, however I find that most people tend to play these spots straightforwardly especially in 3b pots. Still, checking is opening the door to bluffs from SC's or lower PP's which villain may choose to turn into bluffs.

I don't mind c/f if I feel villain plays "honestly". He has a metric ton of aces in his range, and we still make money on average when he calls the 3b pre and no ace pops OTF. He also has lots of lower PP with which he will much prefer going for a cheap showdown than getting trapped with on a A high flop. You can get value from these much easier if the flop goes check-check and you bet on further streets.

Of course you can get bluffed off your hand sometimes when you check, but you can balance that by occasionally c/c or c/r A high flops vs bluffy opponents when you have the goods.

If he checks back then bet any turn.

edit: raise more pre, maybe $1.40 or so

[mondayscool]

i'd definitely be going for at least one street of value. probably bet flop $1.1 and take it from there. it sucks C/Fing a lot of turns + rivers though if villain is the type to float or try to steal pots. any reads or impressions of villain regarding that?

the only impression i have of his buoyancy is his low fold to cb stat, other than that i dont have any notes on him regarding this

[dranger7070]

Bet/fold flop for ~1/2 pot, c/probably fold turn, if board is still goodish by river bet/folding for 1/3 to 1/2 pot.

So like $1.20 otf, $2.20ish otr.

[daviddem]

Calling Spoonitnow to write us a piece about range manipulation and what cbetting does to Villain's range.

[rpm]

i'll go.

when we cbet, if villain folds a single hand in his range, then his range becomes smaller. assuming villain knows the order of hand rankings in holdem, this also means his range gets stronger. our cbet has thus manipulated villain's range.

insta-sticky

[daviddem]

^^ yeah it gets stronger. How much stronger? Does it not get so strong that you have far less than 50% equity against it?

[rpm]

i don't believe so, no. but it's possible.

[MadMojoMonkey]

robb already shipped it.

Exploitation and FTC Theorem

[daviddem]

^^ some similar ideas, however I would def. not check raise here. But the point is: when you check, you keep his range as weak as it can be, whether he bets or checks behind.

[dranger7070]

This guy appears to be a fish. Not going for two streets of thin value (regardless of when it occurs) seems bad.

[Icanhastreebet]

Almost definitely bet check bet v someone with these stats and no other reads and fold every street if it's bet/raised except the turn if he bets smallish when we check.

[daviddem]

^^ OK, if he says it, then I am wrong and everyone else is right.

[Icanhastreebet]

^^ OK, if he says it, then I am wrong and everyone else is right.

I think your line is fine as long as once flop checks through we bet turn/river. I prefer to just cbet flop though because this is expected of us and checking turns our hand pretty face up even v terrible opponents. "Oh he 3b me and now he checked an ace flop, he's either trapping me or missed, I'll check back my ace" and we end up owning ourselves or folding out a tonne of worst hands by the river. If we bet "oh he's trying to rep the Ace I'm not folding my 88." I mean I assume this is generally how terrible weak/loose players think or pretty close.