maths and hand history check

[birdman417]

For some reason the hand converter didnt like this particular hand, sorry

Villian is 27/18/2.7 3bet over 90 hands
I know, small sample size but his cbet on flop is 40%
since he was pfr would that make his continuing range:
.4 * .18 = .072 or 7.2 % of his raising hands?


Plugging into Pokerstove this would be:88+,ATs+,KTs+,AQo+

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
56,430 games 0.001 secs 56,430,000 games/sec
Board: Ah 4h Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.828% 56.55% 03.28% 31910 1851.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 40.172% 36.89% 03.28% 20818 1851.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, AQo+ }

Hand#2916014138000391 - Rome (9-Max) 14138 -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Dealer: Seat 8
Seat 1: Villian ($12.28 in chips)
Seat 2: xxxxx ($6.20 in chips)
Seat 3: xxxxx ($4.79 in chips)
Seat 5: xxxxx ($3.65 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($4.01 in chips)
Seat 8: xxxxx ($4.76 in chips)
Seat 9: xxxxx ($4.39 in chips)
Seat 10: xxxxx ($3.96 in chips)
xxxxx: posts small blind $0.02
xxxxx: posts big blind $0.04
Dealt to Hero [Jd,Ad]
Villian: raises to $0.12
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
Hero: calls $0.12
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: calls $0.08
*** FLOP ***
(0.38)[4h,Ks,Ah]
xxxxx: checks
Villian: bets $0.32
Hero: calls $0.32
xxxxx: folds
*** TURN ***
($1.02) [2d]
Villian: bets $1.02
Hero: ????

Even though stove says im ahead of this range, do his actions say fold?

[supa]

Iunno, what's his turn cbet? Any other reads that point to him doing stupid shit sometimes? Prolly not to hard to fold if he isn't aggressive past the flop. Narrow his range down further to what he might pot the turn with, it's prolly a lot tighter than his flop cbet range.

Watch out for plugging in a % to stove. You won't get his true range, only what stove thinks it is based on all in preflop equity. And yeah, he cbets 40% but how much of his range actually cbets this flop?

Looks like you're using an older version of HEM1. Find version 1.12.09 (I think is the latest) and download it. You should be able to see villains names in the raw history now. Plus it allows you to see lifetime stats and not just session.

[Razvan729]

i'd fold flop. his flop cbet stats and his size makes me think we are beat most times in this spot.

his flop cbet range in this spot is for sure AA ,KK ,44, AK, AQ, AJ , KQhh ,KJhh, QJhh , JThh and vs this our equity is really bad.
if we can convince our selves that he's flop range is wider because of his 18%PFR and we call flop( but OP should give his EP PFR which would be more usefull), then turn is a clear fold.

[norman]

Anyone else folding preflop here? We're probably dominated by any ace he'd raise utg.

If no ace or jack flopped, what cbet do we call apart from flush draws?

[birdman417]

Thanks for replies guys!

Supa: Turn cbet stat had only 1 instance so the 100% TurnCbet stat was kind of useless. Had not seen villian get "out of line" per se except for his bet sizing seemed larger than usual in this hand. Running HM2 but FTR converter kept showing all players "all in" after flop..edited this hand in notepad.

Raz: Villians EP PFR was 32%..about twice his BUT PFR

norman: IF neither A nor J nor FD shows up, I would probably fold to villians flop bet and maybe (hopefully..45% to call vs. 35% equity, amiright?) even fold the FD with the sizing.

[Razvan729]

Thanks for replies guys!

Supa: Turn cbet stat had only 1 instance so the 100% TurnCbet stat was kind of useless. Had not seen villian get "out of line" per se except for his bet sizing seemed larger than usual in this hand. Running HM2 but FTR converter kept showing all players "all in" after flop..edited this hand in notepad.

Raz: Villians EP PFR was 32%..about twice his BUT PFR

norman: IF neither A nor J nor FD shows up, I would probably fold to villians flop bet and maybe (hopefully..45% to call vs. 35% equity, amiright?) even fold the FD with the sizing.

damn...seems really too high,i was expecting him to have some 10-13% EP PFR, but you have the stats. in that case, yes, call flop, even though i think it's close cause he has a low cbet flop stat, he bet pretty big and he does it on a 3way flop. but turn it's a fold.

[Razvan729]

Anyone else folding preflop here? We're probably dominated by any ace he'd raise utg.

If no ace or jack flopped, what cbet do we call apart from flush draws?

dont fold AJs in this spot. if we'd have AJo i'd say 3bet/fold or fold preflop instead of calling.

besides A/J flops we can flop other combinations that can alow us to call or raise flop, besides this there are the times where he will check and we can bet and take the pot.

calling AJs in LP vs EP is +EV. if you're not calling AJs in LP then your calling preflop range in this spot is just PP for set?