bet/fold river with set?

[Hoopy]

I've got a few past hands on villein, he seems like a standard TAG so far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($10.10)
SB ($10.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 4
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.15

This is his standard opening size. I could 3bet pre though I think calling is fine as well. I think he's opening wider than most TAG's OTB.

Flop: ($0.50) 6, 10, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $0.75

Great flop, I choose to c/r since there's no reason to think he won't cbet this board and I don't know his barreling frequencies. Should be slightly bigger.

Turn: ($2.70) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn bet is for value vs Tx, JJ+, random stuff that he choose to call with.

River: ($6.70) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $6.70 (All-In), Hero folds

Board is kind of scary now, I elect to bet/fold small to try to get value from Tx and over pairs that may fold to a shove or bigger bet, planning on folding to a shove since wtf shoves here for value except a straight.

Talked to people on IRC afterward and they thought it might be closer between a bet/call than bet/fold because he has very few 8's in his range, 98/87/88 though he's not calling the flop c/r that often with any of them.

We have to assume he's turning some made hand into a bluff here since he doesn't have pure air in his range by the river. Idk if he's ever bluffing 26% of the time though........

Thoughts?

[Razvan729]

i dont like it...i would prob call it but with my fingers crossed, i would be afraid here of a 8 or a set . but i woud call the river.

[couriermike]

I think the fold is good. I doubt he's jamming worse here hardly ever. Maybe T9 but alot of players would just call and not jam esp after you've shown so much strength. It's true he shouldn't have alot of 8's by the river but it looks like he does this time.

Two options: One, c/c the river, maybe folding to a jam. Or make a bigger blocking bet, like $3, and price yourself in.

[Donachello]

c/r the flop bigger please. Also I hate your river sizing since it puts your hand extremely face up. I would say if you're going to bet then bet something that doesn't look like a scared made hand. If you're scared about being raised then I wouldn't bet at all. I mean there's just such a small range that he is repping given image (T8 and maybe 98 are basically all I can think of). I would just never be able to find a fold here given your sizing.

[DJAbacus]

I agree, a $4-$5 c/r on the flop would suggest to SB that you probably have 44 or TT-AA and he surely must fold with 98s. If he then calls or raises then fold.

One thing I have learnt so far is if you think you have the best hand (only TT (or 66) would be better here but a TAG would surely bet more pre-flop if that was the case) then you should bet aggressively. Don't give SB the chance to see the turn/river cheaply.

You had to fold after the all in raise as you have totally lost the initiative in this hand and have no idea whether he is bluffing or not.

EDIT: Was it a good idea to call pre in the first place?

[oskar]

Raise flop a little bigger or turn a little bigger. There is no reason to have a pot sized bet left on the river. I do this by feeling and preschool arithmatic... it is my understanding that this is being talked about at lengh in Professional No Limit - which I haven't read... but there might be some method to make that process easier.
As played I really really don't like this... but I don't think there's much to be learned from discussing river play. You created an unnecessarily complicated situation on the river by your flop and turn sizing.

[kfaess]

Raise flop a little bigger or turn a little bigger. There is no reason to have a pot sized bet left on the river. I do this by feeling and preschool arithmatic... it is my understanding that this is being talked about at lengh in Professional No Limit - which I haven't read... but there might be some method to make that process easier.
As played I really really don't like this... but I don't think there's much to be learned from discussing river play. You created an unnecessarily complicated situation on the river by your flop and turn sizing.

huh?

I agree with c/r flop bigger which lets you bet turn bigger, but even doing that you still have the same problem on the river (how much do you bet or do you check?) I think the river is worth discussing..

Anyway, agree that he shouldn't have many 8's in his range. My definition of a standard TAG is not calling the flop c/r with a bare gut shot. So basically he has T8, 88, or a hand worse than yours. I would prob call the river bet.

[spoonitnow]

You didn't think very much about bet-sizing on the turn.

[Hoopy]

c/r the flop bigger please. Also I hate your river sizing since it puts your hand extremely face up. I would say if you're going to bet then bet something that doesn't look like a scared made hand. If you're scared about being raised then I wouldn't bet at all. I mean there's just such a small range that he is repping given image (T8 and maybe 98 are basically all I can think of). I would just never be able to find a fold here given your sizing.

Yeah I do agree that a decent hand reader probably knows exactly the type of hand I have here, but I think you're giving some 10NL random too much credit for hand reading. If he has Tx, JJ+ I think he just says "lol pot odds" and calls. Agree with a bigger flop c/r and maybe calling river as played.

You didn't think very much about bet-sizing on the turn.

Valid point, flop + turn bet sizes are mistakes.

[DJAbacus]

Agree with a bigger flop c/r and maybe calling river as played.

On reflection and after more studying, the $4-$5 c/r on the flop in my previous post is probably an overbet (a sign of a nervous/inexperienced player) and a raise to $2.50-$3 is more than enough to show your strength without overcommitting to the pot.

I can't understand why you would call the river here. If you read this player as TAG then they either have TT, 66 or 88 and are semi-bluffing and hit the straight on the river. Surely it is more likely to lose to a straight/TTT/666 then win here.

Are you a loose passive player?

[Hoopy]

On reflection and after more studying, the $4-$5 c/r on the flop in my previous post is probably an overbet (a sign of a nervous/inexperienced player) and a raise to $2.50-$3 is more than enough to show your strength without overcommitting to the pot.

We've got to find the bet size that maximizes his mistake in calling my c/r and also builds the pot so we can get all the money in by the river. I'm not folding if he re raises either.

I can't understand why you would call the river here. If you read this player as TAG then they either have TT, 66 or 88 and are semi-bluffing and hit the straight on the river. Surely it is more likely to lose to a straight/TTT/666 then win here.

TT/66 usually go all in on the flop or turn, the only hands with an 8 that make sense are T8/87/88. He doesn't need many bluffs in his range to make this a call. Regardless bet sizing and SPR are more important than the river in this hand.

Are you a loose passive player?

Calling is like my crack, nah mean bro?

[DJAbacus]

Just trying to get this all clear in my mind so I can learn something!!

We've got to find the bet size that maximizes his mistake in calling my c/r and also builds the pot so we can get all the money in by the river. I'm not folding if he re raises either.

Ok, but surely a re-raise on the flop would means TAG has more than T8s/89s/88/87s. We must assume they are still playing tight here right?

TT/66 usually go all in on the flop or turn, the only hands with an 8 that make sense are T8/87/88. He doesn't need many bluffs in his range to make this a call. Regardless bet sizing and SPR are more important than the river in this hand.

Ok, assuming TT/66 will go all in, so T8/87/88 makes sense, then we must now go all in with 444 on the turn.

Calling is like my crack, nah mean bro?

No speako your lingo........but this is by definition is a loose passive play...right?

Two mistakes by hero... first at the flop, then the turn...this player has us beat... right?...bluff or no bluff....Swallow the $4 loss....but risk losing $10 (surely has a straight!) when 444 on the flop vs SB...noooooooooooo....FOLD!FOLD!FOLD!

....but as you say the river (call or no call) is not as important as the bet sizing is the main issue....mmmm..... learnt something really important here.....thanks for posting and humouring a newbie...

[oskar]

huh?

I agree with c/r flop bigger which lets you bet turn bigger, but even doing that you still have the same problem on the river (how much do you bet or do you check?) I think the river is worth discussing..

Anyway, agree that he shouldn't have many 8's in his range. My definition of a standard TAG is not calling the flop c/r with a bare gut shot. So basically he has T8, 88, or a hand worse than yours. I would prob call the river bet.

If you raise just a little more on the flop and 3/4 on the turn, or same on the flop and 5/6 turn then the only options on the river are shove or c/c c/f. You can't exactly bet 1/5 and then fold getting 5:1. I dislike op's plan on the river in any case cos we don't know how the villain will react. His ranges are too random for us to make plays like that.

[Hoopy]

Ok, but surely a re-raise on the flop would means TAG has more than T8s/89s/88/87s. We must assume they are still playing tight here right?

Yeah absolutely but looking at combination's of hands the only 2 hands I lose to are TT/66 which is 6 combo's, lots of people will stack off on this board sometimes with over pairs/random 2 pairs and even a hand like AT making it an easy stack off for value.

No speako your lingo........but this is by definition is a loose passive play...right?

Not really, bet/calling this river with 44 is different to check/calling a shove with A6.

....but as you say the river (call or no call) is not as important as the bet sizing is the main issue....mmmm..... learnt something really important here.....thanks for posting and humouring a newbie...

No problem.

[Dex]

Not going to rag on the self-defeating river betsize/fold as it's been done.

I think villain is more likely to reraise 66 than TT on the flop because holding TT reduces the frequency you have top pair, plus lower sets can be expected to stack off regardless, making more sense to flat with position. Playing HU villain will likely flat overpairs and top pair.

Essentially, villain's range that beats you is TT >>>> 66 >>> T8 >> 88 >> 78, but their range for shoving over that betsize on the river can now include overpairs and two pair hands going for thin value/lolbluffing.

[!Luck]

Only thing I hate is how you say he is a standard , it a bit ambiguous. Also, check raise bigger and consider over shoving turn, cAuse bvb it looks bluffy if he has higher set oh well but he may open wide enough on sb to have a few two pair combos to snap plus dumb JJ.

[Imthenewfish]

If he has a lot of 8x that gets to the river then we're probably getting value from a larger range..? i don't really get sizings

[Dex]

If he has a lot of 8x that gets to the river then we're probably getting value from a larger range..? i don't really get sizings

That's a great point. I read things like that and think "shit, I wish I'd said that".