aces up 10nl

[philly and the phanatics]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($10.41)
CO ($6.90)
Button ($4.63)
SB ($14.26)
BB ($10.10)
UTG ($17.32)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) A, 3, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.85, SB calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.55) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.20, SB calls $2.20

River: ($6.95) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero folds

Total pot: $6.95 | Rake: $0.46

Villain is 50/25 over 4 hands rofl so really nothing to go on, but the way he passively played this hand and then shoved the river screamed flush to me, i was considering shoving non club rivers, but now my plan is fucked to holy hell with him basically putting me all in.

i need ~ 31% equity to be able to call profitably and im not sure i have it. i doubt he turns Ax into a bluff like this here, so it basically looks like slow played sets and most obviously, flushes (obviously sets discounted because he didnt raise ever)

[OngBonga]

I think we can call this, but maybe I'm not giving him enough club hands.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42 games 0.046 secs 913 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.619% 42.86% 04.76% 18 2.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 52.381% 47.62% 04.76% 20 2.00 { AA, QQ, 88, 66, 33, AQs, A8s, A6s, A3s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, A8o, A6o, A3o }


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There's hands I leave out that we beat, stuff like AK or 86s, but I consider these unlikely, and we have the required equity to call without the need to put hopeful hands in his range.

[spoonitnow]

The two pairs OngBonga has suggested for Villain's range aren't all that likely because he's not been more aggressive on the flop or turn, yet decided to pot the river when the scare card came.

[BLURI]

Folding seems like a good decision here.

I've many times in the past 3-4 days seen (i'm also playing 10nl) that villains tend to check/call 2 streets with monsters, and then bet big on the river. Even if the board is wet!

Were often against a flush at this spot, but i wouldn't be suprised if he shows up with a set.

[OngBonga]

Fair comment spoon.

[OngBonga]

Ok, I tried a different range and we're cutting it fine...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.005 secs 3,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 88, A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

[OngBonga]

I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


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I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.

[spoonitnow]

I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tc-161721.html

[supa]

Honestly, I don't understand how he has A8 in his range. If he does, doesn't he have a ton of other Ax crap? Seems like AK is far more likely, which is the same # of combos so it doesn't matter much cuz we beat them both anyway. But if we add some combos of AT+ we're crushing him. Although adding combos that we beat but might not exist is my biggest fail cuz I talk myself into calling when I shouldn't.

[Pelion]

Honestly, I don't understand how he has A8 in his range. If he does, doesn't he have a ton of other Ax crap? Seems like AK is far more likely, which is the same # of combos so it doesn't matter much cuz we beat them both anyway. But if we add some combos of AT+ we're crushing him. Although adding combos that we beat but might not exist is my biggest fail cuz I talk myself into calling when I shouldn't.

until the river yes. When he bets that river, Ax one pair is unlikely.

[philly and the phanatics]

I'm still not thinking very clearly... 88 is unlikely to be in his range, without that it's better for us, up to 40%..
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

15 games 0.005 secs 3,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6c 3h Qd 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { A8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c7c, A8o }


---

I must confess, I'm not sure how we reach 40% when we have just A8 in his range that we beat and all those clubs that we lose to.

with no sets and A8s in his range i have 18% equity vs the flushes you gave him

[dranger7070]

lol fold