AA 10nl FR double paired board, FD completes on river

[dranger7070]

Villain is 60/0/0 over 5 hands. Obv no reads at this point. Turn is a question point as well. I'm b/f this here, any other lines? I hate a c/c as I'm just opening myself up for pwnage. River I think b/f is the best line once again, but what should my sizing be? I don't think c/c or c/f is too awful either, but I think because the board is paired twice, with a high card, maybe he'll call for a chop? But if thats the case wtf is he calling on flop with, if hes looking for a chop?

http://weaktight.com/1854536

[kiwiMark]

Switch to tables without so many people ldfo

(happy new year <3 )

[dranger7070]

Rofl <3 kiwi. I'd be on #ftr right now, but spoon is being dumb and banned me lol.

[spoonitnow]

[dranger7070]

88-TT, 7x, Jx, a bunch of random FDs, 9T, 89, A2-AJ, Kx (iffy), random low shit thats looking for a chop.

[daven]

88-TT, 7x, Jx, a bunch of random FDs, 9T, 89, A2-AJ, Kx (iffy), random low shit thats looking for a chop.

so now explain why you are betting the turn.

[dranger7070]

TT-88 = 18 combos
78, 67, A7= 20 combos
KJ, AJ, TJ, QJ= 28 combos
FDs = fuck idk, give him 10 combos
9T= 16 combos
89 = 16 combos
A2-AT= 64 combos

Total combos = 172 combos
Combos we beat = 124 (on the turn)
Combos that beat us= 48

I assume he's not folding any of his range here on the turn.

124/172 = 72%
48/172= 28%

We're ahead of 72% of his range, and I bet 66% = +EV bet. (or am i totally retarded and doing it wrong? lol)

On the river, we're ahead of 114 combos, and behind 58 (FD hit, we're still ahead behind the rest the same as on the turn).

114/172= 66% we're ahead
58/172= 34% we're behind

If I assume he's never bluff raising, does this mean I can bet 2/3 pot and have it be a breakeven bet? Or would that be +EV. I'm confused now lol.

HALP PLZ

[spoonitnow]

Do you seriously fucking think he's calling with goddamn T9 here? I mean goddamn don't put any fucking effort into it at all. If you go through the motions you'll be rolling in knowing-how-to-play-extremely-obvious-fucking-spots in no time.

[dranger7070]

I did what you asked. I put my opponent on a range, and now you're bitching me out...? Makes sense spoon, makes sense. Obviously 9T is the hand he showed up with, so yea I'm going to put that in his range along with 89.

[spoonitnow]

Welcome to ResultsOrientedville, population: you.

[Robb]

Double-paired boards really suck unless he's a complete drooler, since the worst hand that's continuing for any serious number of chips is a ragged full house. I say c/c turn and c/f river. I would probably c/f turn to a psb.

It isn't often that AA turns out to be complete dog poop, but by the turn this hand is screaming "pot control." If he showed down Tc9c, he's a drooler, make note. But you've gotta fold this turn or river against anyone who has even half a clue, imo. You're drawing to 2 outs well over half the time is my guess.

[daven]

ranges are complicated beasts. I saw the results, but here is what i would stab at vs an unknown:
pre-flop 22-QQ, 23o-AKo, Axs, broadways, suited connectors and one gappers.

after calling the flop: TT, QQ, all the Jx hands from above, all club connector/broadways (not so many fds cos you have Ac), 89s, 9Ts, 8Ts, A7, 57, 67, 78, 79

on the turn and suddenly your hand turns into a horrible spot cos he's not calling with much that you beat anymore. Double paired boards are not good for 3 streets of value...

[dranger7070]

Ty daven and robb. I think I was kind of auto piloting in this hand cuz OMG ITS AA and kind of got jacked up on the river. I ended up going for the 3 streets, but I didn't think it was the best way to go about the hand, which is why I posted it.

[Robb]

Ty daven and robb. I think I was kind of auto piloting in this hand cuz OMG ITS AA and kind of got jacked up on the river.

80% of opponents at 50nl can't fold overpairs when they obviously should, and half can't fold overpairs when they should ZOMFG FOLD-FOLD-FOLD-AND-THEN-FOLD-AGAIN.

[Robb]

Ty daven and robb. I think I was kind of auto piloting in this hand cuz OMG ITS AA and kind of got jacked up on the river.

80% of opponents at 50nl can't fold overpairs when they obviously should, and half can't fold overpairs when they should ZOMFG FOLD-FOLD-FOLD-AND-THEN-FOLD-AGAIN.

Hand 1: Everyone behind me is 20/10 and 3b'ing next to never.
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($51.25)
BB ($13)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($50)
Hero ($52.10)
BTN ($59.30)

Dealt to Hero 6 5

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($4.25) 5 5 8

UTG+1 bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25

TURN ($12.75) 5 5 8 4

UTG+1 bets $12.75, Hero calls $12.75

RIVER ($38.25) 5 5 8 4 7

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $25, UTG+1 calls $25

UTG+1 shows A A
(Pre 77%, Flop 8.9%, Turn 4.5%)


Hand 2: Can't resist calling this 3b w/ 3x pot odds. I obv get lost on the hand against this 38/22 feesh (my 9x is ahead of his cbet range a ton). A river miracle saves me, but what hand does he think I can have that he could beat on the river? Heck, I'm worried about Full Houses myself!
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($141)
BB ($58.10)
UTG ($31.50)
Hero ($54.65)
BTN ($60.70)

Dealt to Hero 9 7

fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, SB raises to $4, fold, Hero calls $2.25

FLOP ($8.50) J 9 2

SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

TURN ($19.50) J 9 2 J

SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9

RIVER ($37.50) J 9 2 J 8

SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls $25

SB shows K K
(Pre 80%, Flop 76.5%, Turn 77.3%)


And to show I'm not immune either...

Hand 3: NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($31.75)
BB ($50)
UTG ($56.20)
UTG+1 ($22.65)
CO ($50)
Hero ($64.20)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1

FLOP ($3.75) 9 T T

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG+1 calls $2.75

TURN ($9.25) 9 T T J OH SHIZZLE BET BIG TO DENY DRAWS!!

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $7, UTG+1 calls $7

RIVER ($23.25) 9 T T J 7

UTG+1 bets $11.40 (AI), Hero inevitably *sigh* calls $11.40

UTG+1 shows 8 8
(Pre 19%, Flop 12.8%, Turn 22.7%)


LOL all 3 hands happened w/in 10 minutes tonight and I thought of this thread.