3bet pot, top two, wet board, facing turn shove

[Erpel]

UTG - no sample size. Seems tight/nitty. BTN is a somewhat situationally and positionally aware tagfish who plays a fairly predictable taggy style. (21/14/4 - 31% steal) As is normal cbets a little too much, folds to cbets a little too much. Of some relevance seems inclined to sometimes bluff at rivers (in big pots?) (high river bet % when checked to) but tiny sample size on that. Other stats also indicate some bluff tendencies, but certainly no maniac. 3bets rarely (low sample size stats at 4% from 2 3bets - 1 was in SB against short stacker with 99) - would tend to think he only 3bets for value - don't think he ever 3bets lightly. Would think he continues to a 4bet with only AA/KK and as a result I probably flat call the 3bet rather than 4bet most hands I want to play against him. My 3bet calling range here is probably QQ+, AQs+, AKo. Might 4bet AKo to $2.60 or so, folding to a shove. Will also occasionally 4bet AA calling a shove but definitely also flatting it some. Not sure I'd be 4betting KK. Generally slightly more inclined to call here with a suited AK because suited plays better multiway and UTG might come along.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($21.34)
Button ($10.14)
SB ($2.16)
UTG ($6.56)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
UTG bets $0.40, Button raises $1.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.30, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.25) K, 2, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks

Turn: ($4.25) A (3 players)
Hero bets $3.03, 1 fold, Button raises to $8.74 (All-In), Hero ?

On the flop I check to the raiser. I am committed to stacking off and just want the widest possible range to stack off against. He normally cbets too much and I expect him to bet pretty much any hand here when given the green light. I expect his 3bet value range to be something like TT+, AQ+ and for KK+/AK to be 100% cbets with AQ and QQ-TT cbetting most of the time as well. Probably most likely to check behind the lower the pair in that range. Check confuses me. I wouldn't expect him to have a 3bet bluff range, but if he does I guess check is consistent.

Turn completes flush draws, but also kills just about every single flush draw in his range as both Ad and Kd are now out of his ranges. His one-card flush draws are AxQd, QdQx, JdJx,TdTx. I lead here for value and to price out the one-card draws intending to stack off in two bets (either raised turn or following up with a shove on the river) hoping to be called by AQ type hands.

When raised I become doubtful. The previously discounted made flushes (could he have 3bet light with a medium/low suited connector?) and sets (AA/KK would surely bet the flop no?) suddenly seem not completely impossible. What's my play and why?

FYI my image is pretty solid. Haven't gotten out of line and have occasionally been stabby at orphan pots, folding out when getting raised. Unknown if villain is aware of this.

I'm not really in doubt what the correct play here is, but it's one of those situations where with one set of assumptions it's clear in one direction, but if you start questioning those assumptions (add AA/KK/QdJd-6d5d/QdTd-7d5d, ditching QQ-TT and AQ) it suddenly and dramatically swings in the other direction. I just promised myself I'd actually post the occasional hand instead of just reviewing them myself. I typically get to the point where what is written out above is present to me and then I don't see the point in posting them. But I need to get better at posting anyway and maybe some (like this one) will be painfully obvious - or maybe I'm just wrong about those things and need my assumptions challenged.

Also if you need hand analysis practice, I believe I've outlined the pertinent information in a somewhat logical manner. Could be considered an exercise for: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

[spoonitnow]

Read this then apply it and it will make the OP about 1/3rd of its original size: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

[littleogre]

well i don't really know what the 3-betting ranges are like at 25nl but at 2nl they are usually fairly strict. usually 5 percent and under.


Board: Kd 2d 3s Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.940% 76.39% 04.55% 1479 88.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 19.060% 14.51% 04.55% 281 88.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }

[spoonitnow]

well i don't really know what the 3-betting ranges are like at 25nl but at 2nl they are usually fairly strict. usually 5 percent and under.


Board: Kd 2d 3s Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.940% 76.39% 04.55% 1479 88.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 19.060% 14.51% 04.55% 281 88.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }

Is Villain really playing 88 like this?

[littleogre]

well i don't really know what the 3-betting ranges are like at 25nl but at 2nl they are usually fairly strict. usually 5 percent and under.


Board: Kd 2d 3s Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.940% 76.39% 04.55% 1479 88.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 19.060% 14.51% 04.55% 281 88.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }

Is Villain really playing 88 like this?

i wouldn't think so but my range didn't take into account post flop actions

[littleogre]

i really don't see your average villain playing any under pair like the villain played in this hand. If we remove 8s and 9s from villains range our equity falls to 77 percent

[JoeHaw]

well theres only two combinations of{KK+} and I dont think you can really put him on a light 3bet w SCs unless you have some read on UTG and you have pretty good equity against everything else so ship it?

[r9453]

Is this right?

1. pot size is $4.25 + $11.78 = $16.03
2. bet size is $8.74
3. Board: Kd 2d 3s Ad

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.054% 71.80% 06.25% 1011 88.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 21.946% 15.70% 06.25% 221 88.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

4. bet size/(bet size + pot size) = 8.74/(8.74 + 16.03) = 35.285%

Re-do step 3 w/ adjusted range as suggested by OP.

Board: Kd 2d 3s Ad

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.182% 08.18% 00.00% 54 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 91.818% 91.82% 00.00% 606 0.00 { KK+, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }

So, basically as OP pointed out, in the first case we bet and in the second case we fold?

[spoonitnow]

{double post}

[spoonitnow]

The bet size is wrong. It should be $5.71 because that's how much we're calling. This will lead to us needing about 26.3% equity to call.

Also, you guys are not paying attention to what you're doing when you decide on a range for our opponent. He's not playing TT like this, so it shouldn't be in his range. Along the same lines, why do we have 13 combinations of diamond suited connectors/gappers in the button's range (who 3-bets a tight range to begin with) but not AK?

[r9453]

I was mainly trying to get the math right (fail) and appologise to OP if I got his ranges wrong as well. I think I'll quit while I'm behind and won't risk messing up the thread any further by posting my second attempt.

[JoeHaw]

well thats stupid nobody cares if you mess up its called the BC for a reason I say stupid shit all the time

edit but am still learning imo

[spoonitnow]

I was mainly trying to get the math right (fail) and appologise to OP if I got his ranges wrong as well. I think I'll quit while I'm behind and won't risk messing up the thread any further by posting my second attempt.

You've got to mess up some number of times before you're able to do this right consistently. Would you rather mess up in this thread or mess up at the tables?

[r9453]

Um I'd rather not mess up at all. What I was getting at was that I didn't want to add another post w/ more figuring out that would only confuse the issue. Maybe I could go back and edit my original post w/ an addendum that referred to spoonitnow's correction?

Um I'd rather not mess up at all.

don't play then duh

[surviva316]

without having read anything past the HH, it's hard to put together a range where we have >50% equity, but it's even harder to put together a range where we have <30% equity. this is the least favorable one i could think of:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

308 games 0.005 secs 61,600 games/sec

Board: Ad Kd 2d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.961% 24.68% 14.29% 76 44.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 61.039% 46.75% 14.29% 144 44.00 { AA, KhKs, Td9d, AKo, AcQd, AhQd, AsQd }

i included one set of suited connectors because this guy seems like enough of a tagfish to be like "well norman chad says that SC's are the shit, so i'm gonna 3bet them." this is the only one that i excluded AK from (to make the results even less favorable)...i mean AK is like the LAST hand i'd wanna play this way. AxQd is really the hand that makes the most sense to play this way (other than the whole 3b'ing pre thing, but he 3b 99's and stacked off so he obv doesn't know how to 3b for value), and it's the hand against which we have the most equity.

[spoonitnow]

Um I'd rather not mess up at all. What I was getting at was that I didn't want to add another post w/ more figuring out that would only confuse the issue. Maybe I could go back and edit my original post w/ an addendum that referred to spoonitnow's correction?

The underlined is a frame of mind that a lot of people have coming into poker that stops them from achieving growth as quickly as they would if they'd just go for it, evaluate their mistakes, repeat. You should be grateful for making lots of mistakes. If you didn't make mistakes, it would be very difficult to figure out how to improve and make more money.

[van.dog]

I call his turn bet.
We lose to AA or KK.

How did this turn out?

[surviva316]

Um I'd rather not mess up at all. What I was getting at was that I didn't want to add another post w/ more figuring out that would only confuse the issue. Maybe I could go back and edit my original post w/ an addendum that referred to spoonitnow's correction?

The underlined is a frame of mind that a lot of people have coming into poker that stops them from achieving growth as quickly as they would if they'd just go for it, evaluate their mistakes, repeat. You should be grateful for making lots of mistakes. If you didn't make mistakes, it would be very difficult to figure out how to improve and make more money.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...od-t53415.html

i simply can't word it any better.

we all wanna impress the FTR regs and none of us wanna be at the brunt end of that next snide remark spenda makes, but it should, as paradoxically as it may sound, make you thrilled to be like "oh that's why i suck." it's not always that crystalizing, but the fastest way i've been able to plug a leak is to make assert something that i've always just assumed to be right, and then have someone tell me how bad i suck for thinking that.