PF fold, call or 3-bet, flop call or raise?

[loonychune]

Villain is utg+1 and runs 14/10 over 233 hands.

His utg+1 raising range is probably pretty narrow, like 77+, AK, AKo, AQs, AQo, maybe AJs. Does this warrant 3-betting AK PF?

He c-bets a LOT, so i figure to raise the flop. Problem then is, I can't find a fold when he shoves (he might shove with AK, QQ or since I picked off a big bluff in a previous hand he might think i'm weaker than a pair of kings).

Maybe the correct line is raise/fold the flop?

Appreciate your thoughts on this hand...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($10)
Button ($9.20)
SB ($10.35)
BB ($11.60)
UTG ($23)
UTG+1 ($19.75)
MP1 ($9.70)
Hero (MP2) ($10)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.15) 3, K, J (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 raises to $10, Hero calls $6.50 (All-In)

Turn: ($20.15) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($20.15) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.15 | Rake: $2

[bigspenda73]

once you raise the flop:

-what are you pot odds when he jams
-what is your equity vs. his range

I'd typically just call the flop and play a turn card. The nice thing about people who are VERY tight utg is that they just don't have any draws on this flop except for AsQs.

we're a flip vs. AcQc anyway

also, his stats don't show whether he plays low pps because pps occur less frequently than unpaired hands
so if he dumps AQo he could play down to 22 and still have the same stats

[loonychune]

I think he limps low pocket pairs but I see what you're saying iopq.

It's costing me about 38% of the pot to call. I'm getting 32% if his range is only KK+,AKo,AKs but 52% if his range includes QQ. If he only does this half the time with QQ, say when he has the queen of spades, i'm getting 44%.

Tough one for me this since we've been in about 4 pots over 2 tables and i've stacked him and got him off a couple of pots on the flop with big raises, so while i'm inclined to say this is a fold generally, in this instance i might JUST be doing OK against his range(?)

[loonychune]

Oh, and I didn't really include flush draws in there since I can't see any except the AsQs in his utg range (i'm getting 34% against KK+,AKo,AKs,AsQs).

Course JJ is in his range, 33 might be but as to whether or not I call his shove, i think the deciding factor would be the QQ.

how often does he shove QQ here and how often does he fold it to your flop raise?

[Stacks]

I call in both instances, preflop and on flop.

Preflop we are facing an UTG+1 raise and we have position. Given his tight range we shouldn't be 3betting light all that often in this spot, so our 3bet should be given a sizable amount of credit. A 3bet would likely fold all his worse hands. Hands that were aren't too worried about playing against because he will only flop big a small % of the time (with small-mid pps that we can easily float and bluff raise often against).

And on the flop given villains range I don't think a raise accomplishes much.. He folds all his lower pps 44-TT, likely QQ.. If he is opening KQ he is likely to not feel all that comfortable and possibly make a fold here. A raise folds out most all worse hands. Whereas a call and we allow him to 2 barrel worse hands, and any hands he is behind with is drawing relatively thin (2 outs for his pps, and 9 outs of his 1 likely combo of flush draws).

[Stacks]

To go a little further with the analysis because I believe OP did a really good job of presenting this hand and his thinking.. For the most part the results were removed (remove future cards after the decision next time fwiw). So, well thoughtout threads such as this should be given thought and as much discussion as possible. Oh and I'm bored, so I felt like looking at this situation and this hand represented it well.

Anyways...

(I play around 14/11, which is relatively close to villain. I don't open limp or anything, but I would suspect that villains range from UTG+1 is somewhere around 66+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs. It could be a little tighter, or a little wider, but I think this is a good range to use here).

Blue = likely to bet/fold
Red = Likely to felt by either b/3betting flop or b/calling, check/shoving

Villain's Perceived Range
66 - TT = 30 combos
JJ = 3 combos
QQ = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo
AA = 3 combos
AQ = 11 combos (AQ that will likely b/f)
AsQs = 1 combos (AQ that will continue and likely felt)
AK = 6 combos
KQs = 2 combos
AJs = 2 combos

Total combos = 65 combos

Using villains range we see that villain is likely to felt only 16 combos in his entire range [JJ, KK, AA, AK, AsQs, KQs] (note = KQs is relatively likely to not continue here, but might). This leaves him folding the other 49 combos, which means he folds 49/65 or 75% of the time.

A raise here to $3 means we are risking $3 to win the $2.15. Therefore, a raise here only has to work 3 / (2.15 + 3) or 58% of the time. As we can see he is folding more often that that, and therefore a raise here is profitable based on fold equity alone.

Using the above logic it may seem as if a raise is correct. And while it is +ev, I don't believe it is the most +ev play we can make here. This can be seen by looking at how our actions will alter villains range.

If we call here, villains entire range is forced to see a turn card. We are indeed ahead of the majority of villains range. We are only a dog to JJ, KK, AA (7 combos). And the majority of villains range is drawing relatively thinly, so we aren't too worried about giving a free card. His 66-TT, QQ, KQ, AJ hands have at most 3 outs. And since we are in position we are likely able to extract more value from the some % of this range that will likely either 2 barrel, or make some sort of second best hand.

However, if we raise the flop we fold out the majority of the hands we beat, and surrender the chance of getting another street or two of value from some of those hands. And we are putting ourselves in a spot where we are likely to get allin against a range that we are no longer a favorite to [JJ, KK, AA, AsQs, AK, maybe KQ]. And when we do this we are now drawing relatively thinly when behind, and when ahead villain still has decent equity (3 outs with KQ, and 12 with AsQs).

So imo calling is definately magnitudes better than raising in this spot when we hold AK. Now, if we held a hand like T9 here, then a raise is going to be profitable as I have already shown due to the % the raise needs to work and the % of the time he will actually fold. And this wouldn't be including the % of the time we hit our gutshot and take a bigger pot.