NL Ring: Coinflips

[joshuadzl]

So, a little background on this. I was recently playing at a local B&M I frequent when a maniac sat down at my table (this is $3/$5NL). He was calling river bets with Arag unimproved. I knew this guy would push with any ace, and the following situation came up.

Hero (button) $200~
Villian (BB) $Hero Covered

I pick up pocket fives and its folded to me. I raise to $25. SB Folds, Villian raises another $90 to $120. I know he is on two overs with an Ace, I push all in and he calls with AKo. He turns a king, I lose the hand.

So, I'm discussing this hand with my buddy and his response to me was "Wow, why would you put your entire buy in on the line with a coinflip". For me, the answer was simple, I had an edge. So, Miffed ran into a hand today that got us discussing my hand from the other night. Quick rundown on Miffeds hand.

Dealt to Miffed: KcKd
Villian: XX
Villian raise to $8, MIffy raise to $25, Villian call. Flop come Th6h3d. Villian pushes, Miffed calls, Villian shows AhXh and catches up.

So, just a quick rundown of numbers here:
KK vs AhXh on Th5h2c Win 53% Lose 47% Tie 0%
55 vs AKo 54.8%/44.7%/.38%
55 vs AKs 51.5/48/1

So the interesting thing about this, if you have pocket 5s, I put you all in, and show AKo, do you call? Reversely, if you have AKo, I put you all in and show 55, do you call? Same scenario in Miffeds case.

Tournament players and SNG players, this is only geared towards cash games.

Now, one argument already brought up is our equity in the pot. What if this was preflop, you had no money invested, and the same scenarios went down.

Extremely interested to hear some peoples perspectives on this.

[mcatdog]

If you have a pocket pair and you know he has ace high, go all-in every time. You're about a 54% favorite so your expected profit is $40 for just this one hand. That's about as much as you can expect to make over the course of 50 hands if you're a good player. Anyone who folds in a cash game when they know they have the better end of a coinflip is either underbankrolled or a tight passive fish IMO. The problem is you never really know that it's a coinflip and they don't have to have an overpair very often for your play to be -EV.

The second hand is different because he's far less likely to be way behind (unless this is an opponent who would push all-in with a set).

[joshuadzl]

If you have a pocket pair and you know he has ace high, go all-in every time. You're about a 54% favorite so your expected profit is $40 for just this one hand. That's about as much as you can expect to make over the course of 50 hands if you're a good player. Anyone who folds in a cash game when they know they have the better end of a coinflip is either underbankrolled or a tight passive fish IMO. The problem is you never really know that it's a coinflip and they don't have to have an overpair very often for your play to be -EV.

The second hand is different because he's far less likely to be way behind (unless this is an opponent who would push all-in with a set).

I think that is definitely a big peice of it - knowing they have overs. I wouldn't make this move unless I was extremely confident in my read. It took this guy showing Ace high unimproved about 3 times for me to be convinced.

Edit: As for Miffy's hand, same deal. I think to really answer these questions we have to be confident in our reads.

[andy-akb]

In a cash game you should take any edge, so the answer to your first two questions would be yes and if I had AK against 55 I would fold.

However, I dont think you are maximizing your $EV by trying to get it all in while being a coinflip. Wouldnt it be more profitable to see a flop and play from there? Maximize your wins and minimize your losses.

Another question I have is how did you know he had two overs with an ace? Why wouldnt he play TT+ the same way?

[Renton]

I don't think 54% is a big enough edge when you are playing a hand in which rake is collected.

EDIT: But dead money from prior streets/betting usually make coinflips profitable in NL ring.

[mcatdog]

I don't think 54% is a big enough edge when you are playing a hand in which rake is collected.

If a 3/5 NL game rakes $40 from a $1000 pot you should probably consider not playing there.

[joshuadzl]

In a cash game you should take any edge, so the answer to your first two questions would be yes and if I had AK against 55 I would fold.

However, I dont think you are maximizing your $EV by trying to get it all in while being a coinflip. Wouldnt it be more profitable to see a flop and play from there? Maximize your wins and minimize your losses.

Another question I have is how did you know he had two overs with an ace? Why wouldnt he play TT+ the same way?

Concerning the flop: I would agree in one situation - I have no money already invested in the pot.

Concerning this, I suppose I should mention the guy under valued his pairs (he played a medium PP very slow preflop) and always over played his AX. We can never say we're 100% on our reads, but I was very confident, and for purpose of argument, I was right.

[WhooFleuryScores]

I think I'd take the edge.

[Turska]

Well you could not bet 100% sure he has 2 face cards
he could have 66 for example. I think the error margin
takes away this 4% edge.

I would wait for better situation to make move. But
live games are different I agree. You dont get so many
chances as multitabling...

[Miffed22001]

If you have an edge of even 1% after the rake is taken into consideration then im flipping. ($2max for 100nl?)
I have to say however id prefer a 5% or better edge but if we know for certain that opp only has overs vs our pp then ill take it.

[biondino]

This hand is very different with 88 or 99 I think - in this case the chance he has an overpair is negated by the possibility that he has an ace with a kicker 7 or less, giving you a much larger edge.

[Galapogos]

Maybe I'm thinking too in depth but what about when you hit a bad run? It could take a while to build up again. Yes there are good runs but you could hit your good run when you've had to move down a limit or two. I also wonder how this could affect your game mentally when you hit a bad streak like that. I'm not a disciplined enough player for this to not mess up my play.

Plus as someone mentioned your read will not be 100% accurate. Those times you're wrong won't make this worth it.

Even if you were 100% correct I think this is one of those life-time winning plays. I know poker's long term but I'm not looking that long term.

[Lukie]

So, a little background on this. I was recently playing at a local B&M I frequent when a maniac sat down at my table (this is $3/$5NL). He was calling river bets with Arag unimproved. I knew this guy would push with any ace, and the following situation came up.

Hero (button) $200~
Villian (BB) $Hero Covered

I pick up pocket fives and its folded to me. I raise to $25. SB Folds, Villian raises another $90 to $120. I know he is on two overs with an Ace, I push all in and he calls with AKo. He turns a king, I lose the hand.

i'm not so sure I like raising to 5xbb with 55 with only 40bb eff stacks.

So, I'm discussing this hand with my buddy and his response to me was "Wow, why would you put your entire buy in on the line with a coinflip". For me, the answer was simple, I had an edge. So, Miffed ran into a hand today that got us discussing my hand from the other night. Quick rundown on Miffeds hand.

Are you sure you had an edge against his RANGE though? You had an edge this hand, but how can you be sure he doesn't have 66-AA?

Flipping or being dominated = not fun

Dealt to Miffed: KcKd
Villian: XX
Villian raise to $8, MIffy raise to $25, Villian call. Flop come Th6h3d. Villian pushes, Miffed calls, Villian shows AhXh and catches up.

So, just a quick rundown of numbers here:
KK vs AhXh on Th5h2c Win 53% Lose 47% Tie 0%
55 vs AKo 54.8%/44.7%/.38%
55 vs AKs 51.5/48/1

*shrugs*

So the interesting thing about this, if you have pocket 5s, I put you all in, and show AKo, do you call?

in isolation and assuming good br management, insta-call.

Reversely, if you have AKo, I put you all in and show 55, do you call? Same scenario in Miffeds case.

This is just a matter of comparing my equity to pot odds. And in pretty much all realistic cases, this is a call. Again, assuming this is in isolation and we are practicing good BR management. I say in isolation, because say there's a doofus playing and he has 1 buyin and will leave after he either busts or wins big or something like that (it happens), it's probably better to way for a bigger edge.

Tournament players and SNG players, this is only geared towards cash games.

Now, one argument already brought up is our equity in the pot. What if this was preflop, you had no money invested, and the same scenarios went down.

Extremely interested to hear some peoples perspectives on this.

no dead money, same scenarios, call when ahead, fold when behind. seems pretty simple.

If I was playing on the upper-tier levels of what my BR could support, I'd fold tiny edges but not much. Let's unrealistically assume that we have a 51/49 edge, and lets say rake and dead money cancle each other out. Somebody pushes 100bb. A call here gives us an EV of 2bb. I'd fold here, sacrificing 2bb in favor of passing up massive variance.

[joshuadzl]

I have to reiterate here - we're making this play based off our read. If I'm confident in my read, I'm making the move. We can assume your read is off here, or theres a chance it is off, but we make all of our plays and strategys based off the range we put our opponents on. With that said, this is completely based under the assumption our read is on.

Moving forward, I think you have a fantastic point Galapogos. I was talking to this same friend this morning and he said he still wouldn't call with the 55 knowing that it is technically in a stronger position than the KK on the suited board. When I asked him why he said "I hate getting all my money in on a flip preflop" and when I thought about this more - it made sense. You imply his tilt factor post that hand if he loses it, and you have a real shitty -ev move.

I definitely think its a hard pressed move for someone who doesn't play with a deep bankroll. Myself, I play with 30 buyins, so for me, I'll take this move all day long. But for someone like you, or my said buddy, I can see this being a poor move just for the possible implied tilt factor in later hands.

[Lukie]

also, people need to realize that just because TV announcers call pair v overcards situations 'coinflips', doesn't change the fact that the pair (almost always) has the edge.

Again, let's say rake and dead money cancle each other out for simplicity's sake.

hero's pair has 55% equity

Big ace has 45% equity and pushes all in for 100bb.

Folding here is a mistake that costs us 10bb, or one-tenth of a buyin. Regardless of what people say, this is a pretty significant edge to just throw away...

[joshuadzl]

i'm not so sure I like raising to 5xbb with 55 with only 40bb eff stacks.

This is a standard raise at this table, 15-25 is usually it. Keep in mind this was live, and the raises\calls tend to be a lot more juicy than online, especially at these smaller stakes.

Are you sure you had an edge against his RANGE though? You had an edge this hand, but how can you be sure he doesn't have 66-AA?

Flipping or being dominated = not fun

Well, like I said earlier, when he had a pair, he played it very slow. He was your typical new player. Underplay pairs, overplay drawing hands. I think any relatively experienced live player could of read this guy. It was very basic. If my read was wrong, thats fine, thats poker. But in poker, we always have to go with our read and what we put our opponent on. I'm not making this move unless I'm extremely confident in my read. This time I was, so I went with it. I'm never going to error on the side my read in correct.

in isolation and assuming good br management, insta-call.

Yeah, this is something I was thinking about last night. Deep BR management plays a big role in this.

This is just a matter of comparing my equity to pot odds. And in pretty much all realistic cases, this is a call. Again, assuming this is in isolation and we are practicing good BR management. I say in isolation, because say there's a doofus playing and he has 1 buyin and will leave after he either busts or wins big or something like that (it happens), it's probably better to way for a bigger edge.

I think if we have no money invested into the pot, waiting for a bigger edge is probably better depending on the table. If I'm at a table where I feel other players are just as capable as stacking this player as I am, I may take a smaller edge to get first shot just to hit his stack. Who knows if player is rebuying and those chips infront of him I want to be my chips.

no dead money, same scenarios, call when ahead, fold when behind. seems pretty simple.

If I was playing on the upper-tier levels of what my BR could support, I'd fold tiny edges but not much. Let's unrealistically assume that we have a 51/49 edge, and lets say rake and dead money cancle each other out. Somebody pushes 100bb. A call here gives us an EV of 2bb. I'd fold here, sacrificing 2bb in favor of passing up massive variance.

Definitely. If you're playing outside of your roll, or even within your roll on but on the edge of cracking it, I'd agree playing the tiny edges is not a smart move.

[LimpinAintEZ]

If i'm up against a player that is willing to call river with Arag, I don't go AI preflop with 55 - I'm either a slight favorite against overcards, or a huge underdog against a higher PP - I think if he's willing to put that much money in, I would limp in and try to hit a set on him...You will get his stack pretty quick if you even show 2 pair from the sounds of it, so why would you want to flip? In a tourney I think that move makes more sense, but with big stacks I don't like it there either - even 8,9 are overcards against 55 - If the guy is willing to call down with crap, I don't see any reason to get all your money in with a marginal hand - Either limp for a flop or do that when you have a big pair...54% might be an edge, but why push that small of an edge when the guy calls river bets with A rags? there are easier ways of getting his stack -

Seems like a lot of players advocate pushing this little of an edge...may i ask why? Cause i just don't get it - against better players, you have to push smaller edges..? (i'm just guessing there, but is that it?)

Miffed's example is a much different scenario, IMO - KK is so much stronger than 55 - Also, you are comparing KK AFTER that flop with 2 hearts, while you are putting the 55 up against AK preflop - that seems like your comparing apples to oranges - If you run KK vs. Ah,Xh preflop, im sure KK is much bigger favorite - postflop doesn't do that comparison well - I do like that you PUSHED all in with the 55 instead of calling his all in...thats always better -

[joshuadzl]

If i'm up against a player that is willing to call river with Arag, I don't go AI preflop with 55 - I'm either a slight favorite against overcards, or a huge underdog against a higher PP - I think if he's willing to put that much money in, I would limp in and try to hit a set on him...You will get his stack pretty quick if you even show 2 pair from the sounds of it, so why would you want to flip? In a tourney I think that move makes more sense, but with big stacks I don't like it there either - even 8,9 are overcards against 55 - If the guy is willing to call down with crap, I don't see any reason to get all your money in with a marginal hand - Either limp for a flop or do that when you have a big pair...54% might be an edge, but why push that small of an edge when the guy calls river bets with A rags? there are easier ways of getting his stack -

Seems like a lot of players advocate pushing this little of an edge...may i ask why? Cause i just don't get it - against better players, you have to push smaller edges..? (i'm just guessing there, but is that it?)

Miffed's example is a much different scenario, IMO - KK is so much stronger than 55 - Also, you are comparing KK AFTER that flop with 2 hearts, while you are putting the 55 up against AK preflop - that seems like your comparing apples to oranges - If you run KK vs. Ah,Xh preflop, im sure KK is much bigger favorite - postflop doesn't do that comparison well - I do like that you PUSHED all in with the 55 instead of calling his all in...thats always better -

If you have no money invested into the pot, then folding and waiting a better spot isn't a bad idea and I acctaully disagree with the tournament statement. In a tournament, I can't rebuy. Putting my entire tournament life on a small edge is not worth it (outside of say deep in a tournament where it is critical you win these flips). In a cash game though, you can constantly reload and you'll be making money over time. I'm not giving away my money already invested into the pot any day with the better hand. Had he been UTG and put me all in, I probably would of folded and waited for a better spot.

As for the KK example, it isn't comparing apples to oranges at all. It is exactly the same scenario. We have the same ammount of money invested in the pot and we have the same chance to win the hand. If you run 55 vs AKo from preflop out to the river, you're going to win 54% of the time with the 55. If you run KK vs the AXs on the suited board from the flop out to the river a million times, you're going to take it down 53% of the time. The ammount of cards remaining does not matter, its the matter of times you're going to win the hand that matters and I think a lot of players don't take the time to realize this. Many players will say "I'm not putting all my money in with 55 if they show me AK. I don't want to be in a flip" but then will instantly say "Of course I'll call with KK on that board, I'm ahead!".

Look at this way. In Miffeds hand, he raised it to $25 and player called. On the flop, player pushed. Miffed has $25 invested into the pot and has a 53% edge. He calls. I raise to $25 and fish puts me all in. I have $25 invested into the pot preflop with a 54% edge. I call. All that matters is my edge at the time I am putting my money in. Miffed edge of 53% is not larger than my edge of 54% just because he is on the flop. That % is how many times you'll win the hand when all the cards are out there from that point on.

Now, if Miffed put all of his money into the pot preflop againt the AXs, that'd be comparing apples to oranges but that isn't the case.

[LimpinAintEZ]

well what I am trying to say is the in Miffed's hand he LIKELY knows he is against a flush draw, meaning his overpair is most likely good and he only has to dodge 2 cards...I think it totally matters how many cards are left - Its better to push a flush draw out on the turn card, leaving the draw with only 1 card left, reducing his odds greatly - I think the same thing is true with 2 cards to go vs. going all in preflop with a 54% edge - I would much rather get my money in preflop with AK because then I have 5 cards to catch either card, instead of calling to see a flop and having to fold - Not that I go AI much preflop with AK, i'm just saying when you have 5 cards to come your chances of winning are much better wit hAK -

I guess the real point of my post wasn't in the numbers - You say the guy slow played pairs and called down with A rag...Against this kinda player I would limp in as much as possible and try to outdraw him...If he was tougher the all in might be a good play, but again if you know he's willing to call, why do you want to push preflop with such a small edge...Yeah, you can reload, but you wouldn't need to - Here is what I mean - If you have opponents who are tight but tricky and play well postflop, you need to make some moves...But against someone like the opponent you mentioned, the last thing I want to do is race with him...You don't need to if he calls with so little - all you need to do is outflop him...Poker isn't all about numbers, IMO - If you can get all of his chips when he's calling down with middle pair and you flop a set, that is a hell of a lot better than flipping with him...I would consider going all in preflop with 55 if I felt I was getting bullied at a table - If someone kept trying to steal from me, etc - That would be a good time to say "kiss my ass for trying to steal from me everytime" - because THEN your small edge, if you get called, might hold up...Plus it lets them know you are willing to put it all in with 55 - But against this guy, I don't see any reason to do it -

Im thinking that everyone is saying "if you don't push that edge its a mistake", because they play against really good players - that might be true against better players, who are willing to fold and don't like flips preflop, but against a bad player you don't need to do that...its almost like you should go to strictly palying ABC poker against him - just my opinion...its easy to beat a player like this, and when it's easy ther eis no reason to flip with him....

[joshuadzl]

well what I am trying to say is the in Miffed's hand he LIKELY knows he is against a flush draw, meaning his overpair is most likely good and he only has to dodge 2 cards...I think it totally matters how many cards are left - Its better to push a flush draw out on the turn card, leaving the draw with only 1 card left, reducing his odds greatly - I think the same thing is true with 2 cards to go vs. going all in preflop with a 54% edge - I would much rather get my money in preflop with AK because then I have 5 cards to catch either card, instead of calling to see a flop and having to fold - Not that I go AI much preflop with AK, i'm just saying when you have 5 cards to come your chances of winning are much better wit hAK -

I don't think you're understanding the mathematics behind it (please don't take offense to this statement). My read was correct, so first of all, lets acknowledge we know exactly what we're up against here. Miffed read his hand right as well, he knew he was up against the flush draw.

Regardless of how many cards are left in the deck, you are only going to win the hand 53% of the time with Miffeds hand from that point on. In my situation, you're going to win the hand with 55 with 5 hands to come 54% of the time. If you're saying you'd rather have the AK with 5 cards to come, you're going to be a losing player. You are going to lose that hand more than you are going to win. Also, if you were given the oppurtunity to put all your money in with either scenario, you could rather have the KK vs AQH on the Th5h2 board or the 55 vs AK preflop situation, you would win more money overtime with the 55 vs AK situation than you would with the KK vs the AQh on the suited board situation. This is not a scenario of preflop racing, it is having the same equity in the pot from different points with same expectation. The KK hand on that board is less likely to win than a 55 is vs AK from preflop out. AK loses more than it wins vs any pocket pair from preflop out.

I guess the real point of my post wasn't in the numbers - You say the guy slow played pairs and called down with A rag...Against this kinda player I would limp in as much as possible and try to outdraw him...If he was tougher the all in might be a good play, but again if you know he's willing to call, why do you want to push preflop with such a small edge...Yeah, you can reload, but you wouldn't need to - Here is what I mean - If you have opponents who are tight but tricky and play well postflop, you need to make some moves...But against someone like the opponent you mentioned, the last thing I want to do is race with him...You don't need to if he calls with so little - all you need to do is outflop him...Poker isn't all about numbers, IMO - If you can get all of his chips when he's calling down with middle pair and you flop a set, that is a hell of a lot better than flipping with him...I would consider going all in preflop with 55 if I felt I was getting bullied at a table - If someone kept trying to steal from me, etc - That would be a good time to say "kiss my ass for trying to steal from me everytime" - because THEN your small edge, if you get called, might hold up...Plus it lets them know you are willing to put it all in with 55 - But against this guy, I don't see any reason to do it

I agree, poker isn't all about the numbers but it is about capitalizing on your equity when the time comes up. If you're suggesting I don't raise on the button with my my hand against the blinds then I think you're making weak moves. I'm always going to raise there. We can't be under the impression he is going to call no matter what. I also have the small blind coming up as well. However, I'm not going to give up my money in the pot when I think I have the best hand which I did end up having.

Im thinking that everyone is saying "if you don't push that edge its a mistake", because they play against really good players - that might be true against better players, who are willing to fold and don't like flips preflop, but against a bad player you don't need to do that...its almost like you should go to strictly palying ABC poker against him - just my opinion...its easy to beat a player like this, and when it's easy ther eis no reason to flip with him....

Once again - raising the button with a pocket pair in a folded pot is ABC poker. If you lay down your hand that you raised and have money in the pot with because you don't want to play your edge, you're making a mistake.

[LimpinAintEZ]

might I suggest then, that your read was based in part on ego? Maybe you were saying to yourself that you were going to show the idiot how to play some poker, and took your small edge that far because of some emotions...? Maybe he bad beat you a couple times...When I play poker, I find myself sometimes targeting the idiot not because they are bad, but because they beat me in a spot where they shoulda folded - Maybe ego had a bit to do with pushing that 55 there....everyone gets good hands once in awhile - No, i'm not saying do NOT raise the button there, but when he goes over for $90 more, he at least has overcards...and at best you are a small favorite - Against a weak player who overplays Arag hands, I don't see any reason to push this small edge - it sounds like he will give you plenty of opportunity to get his stack....Also, giving up $25 MAY get him to think he can push you out again, but next time you will be a huge favorite, instead of a flip - Like I was playing $50NL at Luxor and this one guy kept going over the top of me almost everytime I led out - I let him take 3 small pots, and then when I flopped a set of Kings, i led out the same way I had previously...He went all in so fast I had to laugh a bit - It's like i had "taught" him to go over the top of me - I say give up the small pots and get the monsters (not that 25 is small, but you say that is a standard raise here, then it's small comparitively speaking)

you can reload over and over, but is that really good poker? Why not make him reload over and over, by taking huge edges against him...

[joshuadzl]

I listed my reasonings for my read earlier - everytime he picked up a pocket pair, it was call call call. Everytime he picked up Ax, it was bet bet bet. I played zero pots with this player leading up to it. Ego had nothing to do with it, I thought my read was right and I went with it. I've played long enough now that I let my ego go.

I understand stacking them later, and that is fine. The point is of the thread isn't reloading, obviously that is never fun. It is always getting your hand in with the best of it. That is the point of cash games, pushing your edges and profiting over time.

After reading this thread though, do you still stand behind that you would call with the KK on the suited board and not call with the 55? The point of this thread is showing that the two scenarios are identical and you're acctually a slightly bigger favorite with the 55 scenario.

[LimpinAintEZ]

josh I don't think we can talk about this anymore...seeing as we are both in the only state currently outlawing online gaming, I don't want them to find me this easy...Im outta FTR, i can't even talk about my home game for fear that the Gov might want to start taxing those also

Yeah, if I believe someone is flush drawing, I would call with overpair there - My preferable play would be to bet the flop then shut them out on the turn when their chances are cut in 1/2...but they pushed us in with the semi bluff - In my mind, for that situation, is aside from a set, I Know my opponent has a flush draw - If he had the non-nut draw, like Jack high flush draw, that cuts out 3 of his outs (the aces) and only give him the 33% (?) to win with the flush...? Also, I tend to see players overbet (like that board) with top pair, or a straight draw...In those situations, I am at worst a coin flip and at best a huge favorite - But with the 55 preflop, even though its a slight favorite, you KNOW you are only a small favorite at best...And my whole thing is that if they are so predictable, i don't need to go AI with a flip - they will give me their money when i feel more confident....

[joshuadzl]

Good answer. And yeah, were both just as bad as people with child pornography and sex offenders.

[EricE]

josh I don't think we can talk about this anymore...seeing as we are both in the only state currently outlawing online gaming

You don't have to worry untill tomorrow. hehe

[mcatdog]

Good answer. And yeah, were both just as bad as people with child pornography and sex offenders.

Just don't get caught playing onlike poker while committing a sex crime. Then you'd be in a world of hurt.