Re: Small suited connectors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Molinero
I mean, if I'm going to lay down a 7-high flush, why play it at all?
Because opp has either
-a better flush already (let's say 20% chance of this)
-a draw to a better flush (damn near the rest of the 80%; allow a tiny bit for stone cold bluffs)
If you've made a "serious push" and opp pushes back, then I suspect opp is all-in or damn near it. i.e. will not be folding.
So... how often will opp beat you (get another spade)?
about 29% of the time. Lower than the usual 35 because 7 spades remain instead of 9.
So you're toast 20% + (.29 * 80%) = 43% of the time. If something tells you there's a >20% chance that opp's flush is made, it becomes a coinflip. Sorta.
Seems, then, that if the push-back is opp's "last few chips" you call of course. If the push-back takes the pot to a whole new level it's damn tough to call, esp. in tournaments.
PS: an advanced opp might push with a set here if heshe knows you call with LSCs. i.e. heshe would read that you had a flush but figure
-could scare you off (knows your flush is low)
-will boat 1/3 of the time even if that fails.
Re: Small suited connectors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
PS: an advanced opp might push with a set here if heshe knows you call with LSCs. i.e. heshe would read that you had a flush but figure
-could scare you off (knows your flush is low)
-will boat 1/3 of the time even if that fails.
That's what troubles me. It seems like the flush, low or not, is still powerful. And (without the benefit of any data or even a particularly mathematically inclined head) I don't think I've seen as many flush-beat-by-higher-flush hands as would really worry me, so it seems that this kind of situation is one that could get me into a lot of trouble.
Hmmm...