KT steal, villain donks turn and river on Kxxxx 25nl FR

sb is 13-11-4 with 75% fold to steal (13% 3b vs steal)
I'm thinking about checking back this flop as some sort of balance, but that seems dumb cos there is value to be had. I don't like my flop sizing much. Turn and river confuse me, i think river is a fold? looks a lot like KQ/56

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($29.79)
SB ($34.53)
BB ($33.87)
UTG ($21.64)
MP ($9.65)
CO ($10.48)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10:diamond:, K:club:
3 folds, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.45) K:diamond:, 6:club:, 3:heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.05) 5:heart: (2 players)
SB bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

River: ($6.55) 8:club: (2 players)
SB bets $3.75,

He also could have flatted 22-TT PF and be trying to get value with his 66, 33, 55, 77-TT as well as KQ.

So lets see here:

66, 33, 55 = 9 combos
77-TT = 18 combos
KQ = 8 combos
56s = 2 combos

19 we lose to, 18 we beat

18/37 = close enough to 50%

3.75/10.3 = ~36%

Cawl.

Fold. This is more likely to be a value bet than a bluff, since when we call turn donk, we are repping a hand with showdown value. I don't think we will be value betting worse enough of the time to make this a call.

We're stealing IP vs somebody that probably has a HUD and knows our stats. He can easily call low-mid PPs like 22-TT, possibly JJ if he knows we fold to a lot of 3bets.

He can also easily be going for value with the upper part of that range, this obv includes sets but isn't limited to them by any means.

Obviously KQ, possibly KJs is in there, but this is a call imho.

Forgot to put 88 in his sets range so take some of those out of that. Also didn't include JJ but w/e. Still probably a call, its close enough and it seems like we have decent reads on him, might as well take advantage of the information being offered.

If he shows up with KQ here we learn something (albeit, not much), if he's value betting 99-JJ here like this, we learn a fair bit. Highly unlikely he's bluffing here obv.

My first instinct was to fold. But when players this tight pre flop sets they usually try to stuff as much money in as possible. also a guy who 3bs this much is probably 3bing all pocket pairs. 65 makes sense I guess but his line is pretty weird; he could be block betting some marginal SD hand, he could be floating with some AThh-type hand and think you're weak.

this would be a tougher spot if you had like KQ

it looked a lot like KQ and 65s on the turn so why not just fold that to a nit.

if he peels cbets a ton then id prolly just call/call/take note.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

this would be a tougher spot if you had like KQ

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just checking, obviously I folded on the river. Cheers.
I was also wondering about the turn, it seems nobody other than m2m thinks too much about my call there - but the more i look at this hand the more i think he nailed it with this:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

it looked a lot like KQ and 65s on the turn so why not just fold that to a nit.

if he peels cbets a ton then id prolly just call/call/take note.

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I still suck at poker :(

i doubt he ever has a hand < KTs here. also, given his sizing, i think KJ and KQ are more likely than a set which, i imagine, would bet larger because omgz i only get one of these per session on average gotta get paid off by Kx