Bet or check the river?

Villain is 50/5, call open is 24%, fold to cbet is 50%(2), fold to turn cbet is 0%(1), Flop agg freq is 44%, turn agg freq is 29%, WTSD is 44% and W$SD 25%. Sample only 21 hands though.
SB is 25/17 but haven't seen anything noteworthy from him and sample is 126

Topic heading says it call. Check or bet river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($6.57)
UTG+1 ($13.53)
MP1 ($8.25)
MP2 ($3.95)
MP3 ($13.21)
CO ($8.50)
Button ($10)
SB ($39.16)
Hero (BB) ($12.58)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 4 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.50, MP1 calls $0.40, 1 fold

Is raising a bit aggressive here? Tbh my thinking was I'd be happy to grab 2 bb and be done with the hand. I also figured if I could get HU with the fish there was a good chance I could out play him after the flop.

Honestly after his call I didn't really narrow his range down much past 22-99, any Ax, any broadway and any SC or suited 2-3 gappers. I discount TT-AA and AK as I think he would raise these.

Flop: ($1.10) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP1 calls $0.70

I bet top set as I figure after a 5xbb preflop raise he isn't putting me on 7's.

After his call I put him on OESD, any pair. I discount a straight, sets and 2 pair as I think he would raise these. I think he would even have raised top pair so think middle or bottom pair most likely other than OESD.

Turn: ($2.50) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, MP1 calls $2.30

I bet pot for two reasons. 1: His stats and his call on the flop makes me think he is probably going to the river with whatever he has and 2: There is now a FD on board and I don't want to give him the odds for a correct call.

River: ($7.10) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)

A8 and 99 are the only hands that have me worried.

I figure we are ahead of just about his entire range and if he is coming this far he is probably calling the river no matter what so I'm thinking a shove for value is the best play here.

Any thoughts?

I wouldn't discount combos of 78 from his range, horrible river for you, I think I prefer c/c river as you give him a chance to spew bluff at you, such an obv straight on river I think he's going to struggle to call with most hands that he was calling you down with, unless of course he's holding an 8, or likes to play the bluff catch game.

^

Honestly never even thought of 87!! D'oh! Top pair with OESD is one of the most obvious hands he could have been holding. God I'm now soooo annoyed at myself for not even considering it!

Taking that into consideration I guess a c/c would probably be the play.

theres really no need to be looking at all of those stats on a 50/5 its pretty obvious hes going to be a passive fish...and your sample size is too small for most of those post flop stats to converge (although given the amount of times hes getting to the flop they will converge much quicker than a reg)

i would not check/call as he is a 50/5 the only thing he is going to bet with here is an 8

he has a ton of 8's in his range imo, hes never folding his OESD the entire time. Id either check or bet like 1.50 or something.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PKKFW

Any thoughts?

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Well, since villain is 50/5, (although over small sample), I would like to discount most of the things you said. :D

Based on his stats, villain is obviously unknown fish, you can't say that he will semibluff raise straight draw because you never saw him doing it. And you can easily deduce, if he has no knowledge of preflop play, he probably doesn't know why is semibluffing draws, and taking a lead solid play for this kind of flop. Therefore we can further deduce that he isn't really playing poker but mashing buttons, with more or less knowledge about what hands are good. And since his range consists of ATC/2 :rolleyes: you have various 8x combos that beat you, 34's beat you, and 99's beat you. All other hands don't beat you.

Verdict: say hail Mary and ship it all in. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

Well, since villain is 50/5, (although over small sample), I would like to discount most of the things you said. :D

Based on his stats, villain is obviously unknown fish, you can't say that he will semibluff raise straight draw because you never saw him doing it. And you can easily deduce, if he has no knowledge of preflop play, he probably doesn't know why is semibluffing draws, and taking a lead solid play for this kind of flop. Therefore we can further deduce that he isn't really playing poker but mashing buttons, with more or less knowledge about what hands are good. And since his range consists of ATC/2 :rolleyes: you have various 8x combos that beat you, 34's beat you, and 99's beat you. All other hands don't beat you.

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Well I never actually said he would raise or semi bluff with a draw. I said I thought he would raise sets and straights and possibly top pair. I will admit I thought this only because I have seen so many fish just go all in as soon as they make what they think is a good hand. So his being a fish I thought it most likely that's what he would have done with those. I had also seen him raise preflop a couple of times so figured high pairs or AK is what he was most likely to raise with there.

Obviously all these thoughts are based more on common traits of fish in general at these stakes rather than on this particular fish but you got to start with something don't you? :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

Verdict: say hail Mary and ship it all in. :cool:

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Interestingly enough that is exactly what I did. Lets just say this post is not prompted by the outcome of the hand though. ;) I posted here because after the fact I thought perhaps that was not the best play from an EV point of view. And now with 87 being pointed out(and I'm still aghast that I never even considered that hand!!!) I'm even more sure it probably wasn't the optimal play over the long run.

urgh, river = gross.

i would probably want to get more dosh in earlier.. he's a big fish so he's either going to call or he isnt on the flop, so i'd probably bet the whole pot on the flop and turn, which makes his draw calls worse and your mistake less costly if you have been beaten by the river.

8x is a real possibility for this guy here so its a tough decision.

I think if your willing to risk shoving, then check/call is probably better because shove is probably going to fold out 4x or anything really rubbishy thats missed everything. But you do sometimes induce a bluff by checking so get some value out of junk hands. Difficult to comment without more individualised reads, as i've witnessed fish that will take this line with TT+ here, but i certainly wouldnt place your villain on that with out seeing something similar first.

Shove river for value

Sometimes you're beat, but more often you get called by worse. I doubt he ever bluffs here so checking is bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PKKFW

Well I never actually said he would raise or semi bluff with a draw. I said I thought he would raise sets and straights and possibly top pair. I will admit I thought this only because I have seen so many fish just go all in as soon as they make what they think is a good hand.

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Ow ye, apologies, I misread, i thought you wrote he might raise draws.

I would still ship the bastard. :D

i'd shove river since he would call w/ overpairs/OESD's/some heart FD's that got there and any 2pair combo he has
as played i would put him all in on river cause he has less then a psb left ,if i didnt calculate wrong he has 4,6 left.

Board: 7s 5h 6c 2h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.678% 40.68% 00.00% 72 0.00 { 7c7h }
Hand 1: 59.322% 59.32% 00.00% 105 0.00 { 88+, 66-55, A8s-A7s, K8s-K7s, Q8s-Q7s, J8s-J7s, T8s-T7s, 97s+, 87s, 75s+, 65s, A8o-A7o, K8o-K7o, Q8o-Q7o, J8o-J7o, T8o-T7o, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }

thats a pretty optimistic range and its still not a shove imo, i guess if you think hes calling down with a5o and shit then possibly a shove lol but he has so many 8s and you block so many top pair hands that its goign to be hard to do this for value.

edit - thats why i want to bet small (like 1.50 or so ) to get his middle and bottom pairs to call.

^^

Yeah I agree that is an optimistic range and it shows a shove is probably not a good play.

Having said that, his passive play in the hand makes me think he probably would not have bet with anything but the straight or possibly a set. So c/c probably isn't going to get any money out of him on most occassions.

I think I'm inclined to agree that a 1/3-1/2 psb or there abouts would have been best.

For the record though, I put him all in and he called and showed 64s spades. So my thoughts of OESD or a pair were both right!

agree with philly that betting small > shipping. not sure if i even want to bet here at all though seeing as so much of his calling range now has us beat, and we block a lot of 7x.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PKKFW

For the record though, I put him all in and he called and showed 64s spades. So my thoughts of OESD or a pair were both right!

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Hmm, interesting how i forgot to put combos of 4x into his drawing range. :D