som exploitationament thought
as we've been preached to so so many times, most Microstakes and a lot of SSNL regs that you'll play against do a lot of things poorly, but this is concerning barreling. So say a decent reg at our level opens in the CO and we flat in the big blind with some hand thats too strong to 3b bluff because it has more value in flatting. So we flop TPTK OOP on something like J92tt and we have AJ or something like that and are trying to extract value. So we snap check because we've pretty much burned it into our brains that we want to let our opponents to keep bluffing so we need to give them the rope. Well, this really applies to the flop because a lot of regs at microstakes are going to be cbetting a rediculously high % of flops vs you because we're a reg so we know how to fold and they have a hard time reading flop textures so they just cbet when they don't know what to do tbh. so great, we c/c and the turns an 8o. One of the biggest leaks that i hear about right now is bitch regs not barreling enough, so handing him the rope is only going to work if he maintains aggression a decent % of the time here. Given that he's cbetting flop like 80-85% of the time against us, he has a ton of air in his range that can bluff, but he'll usually recognize this as a very bad card to barrel vs us without equity so he checks back with a lot of air. So this turns into a fairly easy card to lead for value because hes checking back a lot of worse hands with showdown value that will call a bet. Now lets say that the turn was a Qo. We notice that BTN is fairly fishy, but not a massif drooler, so his opening range doesn't have a lot of Qx(mebe just AQ,KQ,QJ,QT,Q9s). Along with Qx, he still has QQ+,22,99,and JJ that beat us. He still has AJ,KJ,JT,J9s,A9,K9s,T9,98,97s,33-88, (and i guess some AT/KT type hands, but idk if they go in this category or with FD's because he may see increasing equity as different than as compared to keeping it like a FD on the flop that missed the turn) in his range with showdown value that we're trying to get value from by leading. so leading here is pretty thin with just those hands in his range, maybe even -EV because river is hard to play (we get less value and we're OOP). So we have the option of leading river if turn checks through, which seems like a super duper amazing idea because we're pretty much always ahead once he checks back turn. However, theres a part of his range that we haven't really addressed yet because we kinda discounted it somewhere. We do get value from FD's sometimes if we check here(given this is villain dependent), but they pretty much all regs at microstakes will mash call with FD's here, so we do get more value from just betting. The reason why betting is better than checking if villain is still betting when checked to is because he's not betting a range that isn't calling. So adding FD's into his calling range, leading 2nd pair here seems +EV in a vaccuum from what i understand(not taking into account future betting being OOP). Sorry that this thread doesn't really have a defined lesson behind it, or paragraphs/subtitles for that matter, it's just going through some thought process that could be done in real time instead of autopilot trying to get to showdown because overcards are bad and we're playing too many tables.
