Calling a raise by a predictable opponent
Say you limped with a speculative hand like T8s on the button, and you're facing a 5x raise from SB, who is a nit. Everyone else folds. Would you make the call?
I certainly would, especially if I know his EP raising range is narrow, like AK or QQ+. I might be a bit of a dog now but my implied odds could be huge. It's almost like they're placing their hole cards face up on the table.
There are quite a few players out there who play tight, aggro or passive, but their biggest leak is being too predictable/readable, especially in terms or raising ranges. Could these players be even more profitable opponents than those on your fish lists?
Against calling stations you have to wait for good hands and then value bet, and good hands don't come around very often. Against LAGs you will have to make sick calls against their overbets and bluffs, while the LAG could have the goods once in a while. Against tight cautious players (nits) you can play their cards in addition to yours. When they raise 4x from EP and the board comes 9764 you can bluff them off their overpairs by smooth-calling the flop, and then raising or check-raising big on the turn. Or you can pretend you're drawing and make a move when you hit your imaginary or real outs. Conversely against players who overvalue big overpairs you can set hunt or chase your draws, provided that you're deep stacked, because they will keep feeding you money once you hit (implied odds). Better yet, they think you are an idiot by calling a PFR with 86s and chasing, and you'll get implied tilt odds in future hands.
In summary, tight predictable players shouldn't be too difficult to deal with. You might not necessarily win as much from them as you win from LAGs, but at the same time you certainly won't lose much to them.
Are my arguments valid? Please comment.
